current production schedule updates.

Noticed production has been stuck on 4.7 for 8 months.. Sorry to be a pest, but I hope that trend doesn't continue because it would put my 7/7 (ordered October) into 2017 and would be looking at about 2 years lead time (2.7 + 4.1 ahead of it).. and would put my gso 12 I bought back in May 2015 at three years lead time 1 YEAR ALREADY + (2.7+4.1+7/7+3.5).. do the math at a conservative 6 months per model release puts my gso 12 at three years! Lets be honest, three years lead time for a fully prepaid item is simply ridiculous and not fair to ask of even the most die hard customers.

Back last year..
".... The goal is 3-5 weeks between models, and I think that is reasonable. Ideally, Guy will get a head start on sharpening while the handles and sheaths are getting made. .....The new models should sharpen a lot faster than the older ones. Guy is still the only one sharpening knives though"


point being, I am a huge SK fan.. and a year or a bit over paying up front.. I can manage.. but two year and beyond lead times for up front purchases is just too long for me personally and would have to consider refunds for some more recent pre orders if indeed that turns into the trend.


If I am getting way ahead of myself I am way off on my time estimate I sincerely apologize for my soapbox.. but please let me know.. lead times have been growing exponential, and with all due respect so has the difference between SK time estimates vs. reality..
 
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I think that your sentiment is actually very reasonable! We are merely speculating and I hope that when Ellie comes back from the June mini break, she will hopefully be purveyor of much better and more definitive production and fulfillment news.
 
Do we get prizes if we predict the correct month and year that each model is released?
Would that date be based on when the knife is first seen, or when Survive begins filling orders, or when forum members start to report receiving their knives, or when it hits Monday sales, or when everybody agrees that all the orders for a model have been filled and it all starts over again with the next model?
With several models in the production pipeline and only a couple of models completing the full production cycle I think I'm withholding further speculation until after Summer.
 
mlmcasual said:
Noticed production has been stuck on 4.7 for 8 months.. Sorry to be a pest, but I hope that trend doesn't continue because it would put my 7/7 (ordered October) into 2017 and would be looking at about 2 years lead time (2.7 + 4.1 ahead of it).. and would put my gso 12 I bought back in May 2015 at three years lead time 1 YEAR ALREADY + (2.7+4.1+7/7+3.5).. do the math at a conservative 6 months per model release puts my gso 12 at three years! Lets be honest, three years lead time for a fully prepaid item is simply ridiculous and not fair to ask of even the most die hard customers.

Back last year..
".... The goal is 3-5 weeks between models, and I think that is reasonable. Ideally, Guy will get a head start on sharpening while the handles and sheaths are getting made. .....The new models should sharpen a lot faster than the older ones. Guy is still the only one sharpening knives though"


point being, I am a huge SK fan.. and a year or a bit over paying up front.. I can manage.. but two year and beyond lead times for up front purchases is just too long for me personally and would have to consider refunds for some more recent pre orders if indeed that turns into the trend.


If I am getting way ahead of myself I am way off on my time estimate I sincerely apologize for my soapbox.. but please let me know.. lead times have been growing exponential, and with all due respect so has the difference between SK time estimates vs. reality..
Click to expand...


If this is all true then yea that is pretty ridiculous.
 
I should temper my "ridiculous" statement... what would feel ridiculous to me, may be completely acceptable to others.
First and foremost, SK has the best production knife in the world and some of the best people. so it's not my intent to open ended whine. I am sincerely trying to gage how to proceed for my own interests.

I am just trying to get a handle on "probable" lead times for some of my specific outstanding orders.. I have already made the self commitment (and what wife will tolerate) to wait a year, year and half.. So, I am prepared to wait in the fall of this year which "would"
put my gso12 at a 1.5 year wait.
Since SK has not been able to get a handle on lead-time estimates, I am looking at historic production performance to formulate my own estimate- and that is where I get concerned and could use some help. Please correct me if I am wrong,

* The 4.7 has been in production since November and not 100% completed so looking at a 8 month production.
* If I look at a (conservative) production timeframe per model that's 6 months..
* IF the productions timeframes STACK in time consecuitvely IE.. gso4.7 six months till completed.. then gso2.7 six months.. added consecutively, that puts my GSO 12 at three+ years.

which gets to the real confusion on my part... do the actual model DELIVERY times add up consecutively or concurrently? SK shows the "in production" as concurrently, showing 4.7,2.7,7/7 etc.. currently "in production".. however to my understanding they get built,sharpened and ultimately delivered consecutively (one at at time) with each model taking 6+ months till the next model gets deliverd..

Thanks for any help..
 
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First and foremost, SK has the best production knife in the world and some of the best people. so it's not my intent to open ended whine. I am sincerely trying to gage how to proceed for my own interests.

I am just trying to get a handle on "probable" lead times for some of my specific outstanding orders.. I have already made the self commitment (and what wife will tolerate) to wait a year, year and half.. So, I am prepared to wait in the fall of this year which would put my gso12 at a 1.5 year wait.
Since SK has not been able to get a handle on lead-time estimates, I am looking at historic production performance to formulate my own estimate- and that is where I get concerned and could use some help. Please correct me if I am wrong,

* The 4.7 has been in production since November and not 100% completed so looking at a 8 month production.
* If I look at a (conservative) production timeframe per model that's 6 months..
* IF the productions timeframes STACK in time consecuitvely IE.. gso4.7 six months till completed.. then gso2.7 six months.. added consecutively, that puts my GSO 12 at three+ years.

which gets to the real confusion on my part... do the actual model DELIVERY times add up consecutively or concurrently? SK shows the "in production" as concurrently, showing 4.7,2.7,7/7 etc.. currently "in production".. however to my understanding they get built,sharpened and ultimately delivered consecutively (one at at time) with each model taking 6+ months till the next model gets deliverd..

Thanks for any help..
 
I know technically the 4.7 has been in production since November, there is a bottleneck in the process and, imo, production didn't truly start until all the 5.1s were complete. sure it's cool they let us know where everything is in the process but I think it ends up giving the wrong impression. it seems models enter production when the steel is ordered, but there are many more stages of the process, some not controlled by s!k, before they receive heat treated blanks to finish.
 
From my understanding the order of production was determined by popularity. So each consecutive model should be fewer in numbers. All models do not require the same amount of time to sharpen etc.

Guy and his suppliers should improve thier processes with each model or run.

I think each model will come faster than the one before. I don't think the wild speculation is accurate.
 
I am not willing to comment as to what is "ridiculous" or not, but I can only express my opinion as to what would be unacceptable for me personally, if I should consider placing future pre-production orders with the exception of the 4.5 BC model which I will probably preorder after this Monday:

If indeed the consecutive timelines which MLM has stated above become the norm in Survive!'s production to fulfillment processes, this will become economically undesirable to me. However, if starting from July we see a 6months readjustment phase for them to streamline their operation and then
we see some concurrent fulfillment news plus 3 maximum months in between each model, that would be much more palatable for me. The only caveat being that I also accept that some of the larger models may get shifted around because of the lower order numbers. To quantify what I am saying,
all 4.7s (preoder, presale, secret steel, R&D, etc) plus 2.7 to be fulfilled and the 4.1 to go into finishing up and fulfillment by end of 2016. This still would put my GSO 6 on preorder and the 4.5 which I intend to order on an 18 months wait period but I am going to be OK with this.

I think that Justin had stated in an earlier post on another thread, some thoughts about opting out of preorders and selling the order to someone else which Ellie seemed to have been OK with that thought if it could be worked out among the interested parties. I am going to inject some of my thoughts
on that subject in the thread I had created a few days go titled' "Suggestion Box' or something to that effect.
 
JustinFournier said:
From my understanding the order of production was determined by popularity. So each consecutive model should be fewer in numbers. All models do not require the same amount of time to sharpen etc.

Guy and his suppliers should improve thier processes with each model or run.

I think each model will come faster than the one before. I don't think the wild speculation is accurate.
Click to expand...

Nailed it.

I think everything will smooth out in the future.
 
Survive makes great knives and I have 3 on pre-order (2-GSO 6 and a GSO-10) but right now delivery dates are foggy so I'm holding on buying any more survive knives for now.
It's simple for me, if I have a GSO-6 in my hands by hunting season next year (16 months) then I will buy some more, if not, then I'll buy if I find one for sale from someone but won't bother placing any more orders.
I'm neutral on the matter, I as a customer can choose the knife maker that best suits me and knife companies can run their business for the clientele they want to attract.
Just capitalism, someone provides a product and someone decides whether they want to buy.
 
Voila, just when everyone had all but given up:

Production Schedule

As the models are getting listed for regular ordering, we will be finishing and sharpening the blades before listing them on Mondays. The orders placed each Monday will get built and shipped within 15 business days. For more information about placing an order with SURVIVE!, check out our How to Buy page.

Available on Monday May 30th, at 7pm, PST:

GSO-4.7 Factory 2nds
 
You know, it's extremely aggravating waiting around for an update ahead of time, only for it to be posted without any lead time whatsoever. This process has wasted my time two weeks in a row, and frankly it's off-putting to say the least.
 
NetShock, it is normally posted on the Sunday before. I would say the last two weeks have been more of an anomaly.
 
The posting time was on their web site (production schedule) and in several threads here, including just three posts above. There is a lead time. Each week there is an update posted on the S!K, and they vary the time when sales are open so that some folks who are in school or work or whatever can have a chance.
 
TRfromMT said:
The posting time was on their web site (production schedule) and in several threads here, including just three posts above. There is a lead time. Each week there is an update posted on the S!K, and they vary the time when sales are open so that some folks who are in school or work or whatever can have a chance.
Click to expand...

No, the updated production schedule wasn't on the website until some time late this afternoon. I checked multiple times over the weekend. I checked again multiple times earlier today...and again nothing. I checked again at 3PM MST...guess what...still nothing. Like I said, a complete waste of time.
 
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NetShocK said:
You know, it's extremely aggravating waiting around for an update ahead of time, only for it to be posted without any lead time whatsoever. This process has wasted my time two weeks in a row, and frankly it's off-putting to say the least.
Click to expand...

My system says there are still a couple CPM-20CV in stock...
 
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