Custom Knives – Where in Five Years?

ptgdvc said:
Upon reflection, I think this topic may just be too broad and unwieldy.

There are so many different segments in the "Custom Knife World" that lumping them all together and attempting to define the "MARKET", with poorly or completely undefined terminology, is an exercise in futility.

That said, it is hard to resist the alure of being a soothsayer or pundit. The sheer joy of being able to say "I told you so" is sublime.

Always remember that even broken clocks are precisely correct twice every day.
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This thread has no doubt gone around the world and back again, however not broad and unwieldy at all in my opinion. Many of us have been exposed to the last five years, so what's your opinion as to the future of customs over the next half decade?

It can be as simple as just a couple questions and reason for your opinions:

In your opinion, will the custom knife industry grow or srink over the next five years?

In your opinion, will most custom knives increase or decrease in value over the next five years?

By the way Peter, I like your clock reference too. :D;)
 
This is an interesting thread that effects both maker and collector as all are or should be looking to the future for what each of us want out of it.

I agree and disagree with some of the makers that has posted here as well as some things said by both dealer and collectors but that is what is fun about this whole sub spiecies.

It is up to each maker to do his own goals and how to get there. Lots of makers have no goal other than make knives for their own enjoyment and thats good to cause it should always remain fun. Many collectors should have plans as well and tracking what they like currently, bearing in mind that all things change.

Next five years. Market corrections? Ubet, but then again thats why we are not using sharp rocks anymore. There always will be corrections, more serious ones when we have economical corrections.

I think the custom knives will grow in popularity and yes we are bringing in more makers than collectors but it is our own fault. As makers teaching someone new to make knives how much time is taken to teach them how to bring in new collectors? Most time the new guys just start selling to the people that is already collecting. That is also one of the reason why some people work in other peoples styles, it is easier cause the base is already there.

As to each makers market be it high or low that depends upon the maker himself, is he going to just feed at the same trough or does he do things that gets new people interested in buying.


There is and will be room for both tactials and high end pieces both now and later, always will be. For what maker will depend upon the efforts of both the maker and the people that collector his work.
 
Anthony Lombardo said:
I think for some makers its a purely financial/business decision. Some makers have spent years perfecting the Loveless style and that what they know..

I think the next 5 years will be bad years to be a maker, in general. It will be fine for those makers that have embraced the internet or whose wives have good jobs.....

It will be an excellent time to be an accumulator of great knives at firesale prices. Its due time for a severe market correction in higher end knives.
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Anthony,

40 years ago people became knifemakers because they were driven to create. Most of todays newer makers see an easy buck. I think that you are right, those makers will see somewhat less success, but in general you and most of the other posters are wrong. Every year the Blade Show grows larger and better. Go out and talk to the makers who are business men, they sell and sell and sell. They notify their customers that they will be at xx show and their customers show up making the show more successful.

I have been listening to makers talk about how more makers mean haveing to share fewer and fewer customers ever since the 1960s, I am amazed to still be hearing this same sad old song. Do you not look around you. How many "good" makers do you see go out of business, even the really bad ones hang on for years, finding one customer after another to screw out of their money with customers so desperate to buy knives that they put up with endless delays and obvious lies from makers whithout integrety.

The above leaves makers with integrety doing better than ever, year after year. The only limit on stock removal makers is their business ability.

The makers of the ABS are not about great success they are about preserving a craft and sharing with each other and the world. The only way an ABS maker can succede is with higher and higher prices, or to try to translate his fame as a maker of forged knives into the sale of mass produced knives, I have seen several of these efforts fail recently.

Look at the past years and you will see poorly run factorys fail and well run ones growing and growing. The same is true of handmade knives, except the poorly managed handmade knife operations go on and on supported by hard working wifes.
 
I just missed an engraved, Fred Carter dagger on Ebay (worlds larges reseller of handmade knives) for $800.

What does that mean?
 
Kevin Jones said:
In your opinion, will the custom knife industry grow or shrink over the next five years?

In your opinion, will most custom knives increase or decrease in value over the next five years?
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I think the custom market will grow, but not fast enough to support the ever increasing number of custom makers. There has always been a substancial level of attrition amongst the makers who have not cracked the top tier, but this pressure will be increased because some of the new guys flat out make better knives than some of the more established names.

Your second question is a slam dunk. MOST (about 97+%) of custom knives will ALWAYS decrease in value 24/7/365, imho. Historically in collecting, the secret to sucess is to concentrate on the very best guys. Looking at your collection Mr. Jones, I see knives by Fisk, Dean, Hanson and some guy named Hancock. But, I suspect that you already know that pearl of wisdom. ;)

P
 
HI AG,

For the makers reading this out there. Copy and print AG's last post. Then put this somewhere in your shop!

AG, I printed out your paragraph about the ABS. An astute observation, succinct and and insightful. Made me realize that my attempts to create a dialog that would perhaps instill changes to help the knife makers was a complete and utter waste of time. As such I will no longer waste my valuable time and knowledge with that organizational body.

Hi Anthony,

You are obviously not up on your tax code. First, if you design your house to include rooms specifically built to hold your office (or in the case of my house offices) you can write off that amount commensurate with the going rate for rental space in your area. This can be done several ways, but perhaps the best way is to pay a real estate agent to give you an average cost for rentals based on square footage. The corporation can then expense that amount. Paying the landlord (me) a monthly check. My monthly rental also includes utilities and trash service.

While rent is earned income the nice thing about it is that there is no FICA, Medicare or other taxes deducted from it. This of course replaces salary which would have all those extra taxes and social security. Consequently, the money one makes as a landlord would be much more (approximately 34%) than if you drew a salary from that same corporation. So $1,000 in Rent would be the equivalent to $1,340.00. Additionally this results in a lower tax bracket and there by a lowered AGI.

As for vehicles, if you have two, you can expense one fully for the corporation. The second you may have to do a balance of personal and professional. So you will only be allowed to expense 40 - 60%. Then again, you could just have the car put into the corporations name and completely expense it out. Of course as a Corporate asset any monies received from the sale, trade or donation of said vehicle would go to the Corporation.

Again, the corporation is paying for this, pre tax dollars. Again, since you as an employee would only be paying for 50% of the second car. You salary could be reduced by the amount you would spend on the car(s). Again, helping to lower your AGI.

Remember, it's not what you make...it's what you keep!

It is always best to check with your CPA to see how the tax code applies to your business...if you have one. If you are not a business entity, well the IRS appreciates you not taking all those deductions that you would be legally entitled to!

We now return you to the 5 year thread.

Again, AG has pretty much summed it up.

WWG
 
One thing I can tell you that is as certain as certain can be, over the next five years makers are not going to get rich selling to me. My purchasing pattern will change to fewer, more expensive knives, and in five years I will probably be purchasing only one knife per year.

It will be interesting to see if there will be a correction in the secondary market for high end custom knives, and whether this have any effect on the pricing of new ones.
 
A. G. Russell said:
Anthony,

"40 years ago people became knifemakers because they were driven to create. Most of todays newer makers see an easy buck."

Maybe I'm missing something here, maybe I'm still too new at this to know better, but I do not see and have never seen knifemaking as a way to make an "easy buck". Even if I could justify pricing as high as some of the well-known, established makers, I would still not make as much on a per/hr. basis as I do at my full-time job. Knifemaking and visiting these forums consumes my free time as it is something I love to do. At this point, I pay myself a very modest profit (at or less than minimum wage) on any knives I make for sale, most of which goes directly back into equipment and materials. I could charge more, but I believe that a lower price point will get my knives into the hands of more customers and help me to build a reputation for good quality at a very reasonable price. If, at some point in the future, demand exceeds what I can produce in a reasonable time frame, then a pricing increase may be necessary. The largest draw for me is to have someone appreciate and value something I've put my own sweat and effort into, I know of nothing more satisfying than that.

I'm 26, so there are undoubtedly many aspects of the market and craft that I still need to learn about. I mean no disrespect to anyone here, most of whom have a lot more experience to draw from than I do. I cannot comprehend at this point how anyone could view knifemaking as a way to make easy money. In my limited experience it is the exact opposite.

"The above leaves makers with integrety doing better than ever, year after year. The only limit on stock removal makers is their business ability."

I sincerely hope that this is the case.

Have a good one,

Nathan
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Keith Montgomery said:
One thing I can tell you that is as certain as certain can be, over the next five years makers are not going to get rich selling to me. My purchasing pattern will change to fewer, more expensive knives, and in five years I will probably be purchasing only one knife per year.

It will be interesting to see if there will be a correction in the secondary market for high end custom knives, and whether this have any effect on the pricing of new ones.
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I agree Keith. The collector needs to be very selective with which makers he/she works with and selective in his/her purchases.
There will always be worthy money out there for the special pieces.

I think someone has been working on thread addressing quantity vs quality? ;)
 
NDallyn said:
A. G. Russell said:
Anthony,

"40 years ago people became knifemakers because they were driven to create. Most of todays newer makers see an easy buck."

Maybe I'm missing something here, maybe I'm still too new at this to know better, but I do not see and have never seen knifemaking as a way to make an "easy buck". Even if I could justify pricing as high as some of the well-known, established makers, I would still not make as much on a per/hr. basis as I do at my full-time job. Knifemaking and visiting these forums consumes my free time as it is something I love to do. At this point, I pay myself a very modest profit (at or less than minimum wage) on any knives I make for sale, most of which goes directly back into equipment and materials. I could charge more, but I believe that a lower price point will get my knives into the hands of more customers and help me to build a reputation for good quality at a very reasonable price. If, at some point in the future, demand exceeds what I can produce in a reasonable time frame, then a pricing increase may be necessary. The largest draw for me is to have someone appreciate and value something I've put my own sweat and effort into, I know of nothing more satisfying than that.

I'm 26, so there are undoubtedly many aspects of the market and craft that I still need to learn about. I mean no disrespect to anyone here, most of whom have a lot more experience to draw from than I do. I cannot comprehend at this point how anyone could view knifemaking as a way to make easy money. In my limited experience it is the exact opposite.

"The above leaves makers with integrety doing better than ever, year after year. The only limit on stock removal makers is their business ability."

I sincerely hope that this is the case.

Have a good one,

Nathan
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Well said Nathan and good post. :thumbup:
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Anthony,

40 years ago people became knifemakers because they were driven to create.
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I was under the impression that people made the early custom knives because the production pieces were mediocre at best.

If you go back and re-read my posts you will see that we are in agreement on many things.

Speaking as someone who spends over $1K per month (on average) on handmade knives, if the housing market takes a dump and the stock market flattens out, you will see less purchasing on my part and more saving.
 
Custom makers will always do well, if they enjoy their work, and make what they want. Trying to meet others' expectations of what is 'hot' and what is 'fashionable' is a wild goose chase, which often leads to homogeneity.
I don't know much, but my observation is that there are a lot of traditional knives, which share many similarities, and a lot of modern knives, which also share many similarities.
The makers who are artistic hover above these staid old arguments, and produce beautiful pieces regardless of method. My favorite forged knives are made by Tai Goo, and my favorite stock steel knives are made by Jay Fisher. These guys' work doesn't look at all the same. It's the art that I see in their work that I admire, and whatever inspired it and them is what matters to them and is brought out in the piece.
Guys like this will leave a legacy. Copycats, and I mean that in the broadest sense, (I do not see Mr. Lovett as one) will move on and leave little impact.
As for Coop's comment about a power hammer being akin to a cnc machine, well, I get it. I don't understand why everyone got their knickers in a knot. It's just a tool. I haven't heard of a single knife maker who doesn't use a grinder.
 
Michael Lovett said:
Anointed heir apparent? Man, that was rude, and way out of line. I have never said any such thing. I up until now have never said a bad word about you. But you are both insulting me, and being incredibly shallow. And I do, and alway have make my own designs. I continue to do so. I make a lot of them. But because of the popularity of the Loveless Connection Knives, They are in the public eye more. I make a lot of different types of Knives. Being here at Ft. Hood, I make a lot of Combat knives. ...... You are a collector so you know nothing about these. Which when you get down to it, is kinda the point of the Loveless Connection Knives isn't it. You do seem to know all about them. May-be. Apparently you don't get it. And that is fine. I am not here for everybody. And that doesn't bother me in the least. You know what you like and you enjoy it. This is the way it should be!

As to the Heir Apparent, That would be "JIM MERRITT"!!!!!!!! Remember that name. Because it will get bigger and bigger. Will we end up working together someday in th Far future? Possibly. But if we do, that is between us.

The post by AG is right on. Read it well "Makers"!

We must all do our best to advance, or be left in the dust. Who wants to be an also ran? MIke
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Lovett,

1. Louis Chow backed up your name, back in the day....otherwise, I was highly suspect....glad you were able to get back in the fast game, though, and happy to have you here, you know that.

2. You have managed to tell Joss Delage and Roger Pinnock both to pack sand in about 2 months time...these are respected, long time members of BladeForums, respected for a reason, I might add. Might I suggest, yet again, that you cool off before hitting "reply".......ya crusty old dawg?:D

3. I'm not necessarily sure that you know what you are talking about with regards to Jim Merritt...it will take a LOT of marketing for him to bring remotely close to the fame and price that Loveless knives bring, even though he has been making them for like 20+ years...not sure that it makes sense, but you have had an incredible streak of luck that you may not understand, amigo.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Sookie said:
Custom makers will always do well, if they enjoy their work, and make what they want....... I don't know much, but my observation is that there are a lot of traditional knives, which share many similarities, and a lot of modern knives....... My favorite forged knives are made by Tai Goo, and my favorite stock steel knives are made by Jay Fisher. These guys' work doesn't look at all the same. It's the art that I see in their work that I admire, and whatever inspired it and them is what matters to them and is brought out in the piece.
.
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1. I hope that you have a fair amount of disposable income, and absolutely love what you collect....if the answer is yes, and yes....you are golden!

2. I leave this to the Collective: http://www.jayfisher.com/jay.htm Very, um, interesting.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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