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I do not know if GEC knives have peaked in popularity, but things have changed. First, GEC has moved in the direction of large runs with little variety. This was obviously an attempt to streamline production and get more knives into the hands of more people. This has dampened the excitement which the nearly constant rapid release of lots of new variations caused in the past. Second, around the same time, dealers began to increase their retail prices. At first it was just one or two but now the majority have followed suit. Some have increased prices dramatically. These two events, increased production and increased prices, have lessened the gap between retail prices and secondary market prices. In fact, some dealers now charge retail prices that are about the same or even greater than secondary market prices. Obviously, higher prices have also dampened enthusiasm to a degree. So, collecting GEC knives has become a bit less exciting and a lot more expensive. To me, that means their popularity might be diminishing a very small amount.
I believe Bill Howard has a tough job. He has decided to get more knives into the hands of more people. On its face, that sounds like an easy decision. However, if the mystique wears off and people no longer feel excited about buying the next new knife, or it they cannot afford to buy the next new knife, overall demand might begin to decrease. There is a bit of the emperor's new clothes phenomena involved in the GEC craze.
Now that the gap between retail and secondary prices has lessened, it is a tiny bit harder to sell knives now. I am not speaking of the classics from the past or a rare SFO, I am referring to the run of the mill current production knives. The ease of selling a GEC has made the hobby much more appealing and accessible to the average collector. You can feel comfortable spending more money and buying more knives than you might otherwise because you can always sell the knifes almost immediately for what you paid or more. Some posters have taken the position that customs are a better choice. Well, I have taken a complete bath on some gorgeous custom knives! The same is true for the vintage Case knives I love so much. They are easy to buy but extremely hard to sell unless you are willing to take a huge hit or have access to an exclusive market. With GEC knives you only need our Knife Exchange, a box, tape, and a few minutes time. GEC knives have been like cash in the bank. If that ever changes, then I guarantee their popularity will decline. We have had the pleasure of buying a product that is worth more than we paid for it immediately after the sale rather than one that might plunge in value like a new car rolling off the show room floor. I believe this has been an important key to the success of GEC. If I was Bill Howard, I would not want to see this dynamic change. Unfortunately, it does seem to be changing to me.
I remember in the past when people were venting on the prices flippers charged, they would often emphatically write that they would gladly pay much more for the knives at retail to choke out the flippers. Well, they have been given their wish. We are now all paying much more, and our own ability to sell knives we no longer want is diminished. I never understood the "let us please pay more" crowd. It is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Nobody is ever forced to buy from a flipper. I have never bought a knife from a flipper. They are easy to avoid, just refrain from buying from them. However, we all have no choice but to buy from dealers, and now we are all paying a lot more. I liked it better before.