Random Thought Thread

Nathan the Machinist said:
Is there some kind of an upside to Blue?

Like, if half the population selects blue, and blue wins, does something good happen?

Because, if the outcome is the same regardless of red or blue, why wouldn't EVERYBODY just select red? What would be the harm in everybody just selecting red?

Maybe I don't understand this thought experiment

If all else is equal, you could either have a real risk of peril by selecting blue and hope a whole bunch of other people also take an unnecessary risk and also select blue, for no reason. Or everybody just selects red.

Maybe I don't understand this thought experiment.

I'm selecting red. Everybody can be responsible for their own safety. I don't understand taking a risk of death to select blue if it doesn't accomplish something, other than saving other people who also selected blue. For no reason.

Somebody explain this to me, it seems really dumb.
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So there are only two scenarios in which your choice changes the outcome:

1. The other voters prefer red. If you chose blue then you die, if you chose red then you live.

2. The other voters tie. If you chose blue, everyone lives. If you chose red, half the population dies.

So the only upside to blue is that if you are the decisive vote, you are saving half of the world's population. That is literally it. A very unlikely but very consequential event.

There would be no harm in everyone selecting red, just as there would be no harm in everyone (or just the majority) selecting blue. That's not actually a good way of comparing the choices.

You could frame the question as blue creating risk and red just walking away safely, but you could also frame the question as blue voting for everyone to walk away safely while red is creating risk by voting to kill blue. Neither actually change the consequences of your choices, which is what you should focus on.

Everybody is responsible for their own safety, but you are also responsible for the consequences of your choice. Since your choice could result in the death of half the population, my view is that you should rationally weigh the lives of half the population multiplied by your credence that a tie will occur against how much more you value your own life over a stranger's multiplied by your credence that the other voters will prefer red. If the former is greater, choose blue. If the latter is greater, choose red.
 
Nathan the Machinist said:
Everybody selects red = everybody is fine

People start selecting blue, then a whole bunch of other people also need to select blue, to save dumb people from themselves. These are people who created an unnecessary problem and they need a bunch of other people to rally and put themselves at risk to save them when they could have just everybody select red.
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Most people select blue = everybody is fine

People start selecting red and suddenly the chance of people dying starts to go up. Then a whole bunch of other people need to vote blue to counter the evil selfish murderous red voters.These are people who created an unnecessary problem and they need a bunch of other people to rally and put themselves at risk to clean up their mess when they could have just selected blue.

It's pretty symmetrical. The only way to break the symmetry is to consider the specifics of how you think the population will behave and how much you value your own life over large amounts of other people.
 
Moorik said:
What if my vote isn’t the decisive one?
Do I die? 🥹

There are more than 7 billion people in the world right now.

I’m still going to press the button that gives safety specifically to me.

Man, people vote for communists and shit like that anyway. 🙄
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If your vote isn't decisive then you die if the other voters prefer red.

As an example, let's say every voter besides you has a 50% chance of choosing blue. Then the probabilities of the voting outcomes follow a binomial distribution.

If n=population of earth then the expected number of deaths from choosing red is going to be P(tie) n/2

P(tie) = binomial(n, n/2) / 2^(n/2+1)

binomial(n,n/2) ~ 2^n / sqrt(pi*n/2)

So expected number of deaths is n*2^(n/2-2) / sqrt(pi*n/2)

Probability of your own death from choosing blue is P(blue < n/2) = sum from k=0 to n/2-1 of binomial(n, k) / 2^n

sum from k=0 to n/2-1 of binomial(n, k) = (2^n - binomial(n, n/2))/2

So P(blue < n/2) = 1/2 - binomial(n, n/2) / 2^(n+1) ~ 1/2 - 1/(2sqrt(pi*n/2))

The ratio between expected deaths and your chance of dying is how much value your life would need to have to choose red ~ n/(sqrt(pi*n/2)-1)

If n=8,298,979,488 then the ratio is 72,686.3

So in this example, choosing red is the same as saying that your life is more important than 72,686 strangers. It's kind of like that scene in The Sum of All Fears when they realize the nuclear bomb is in the football stadium and start rushing the President out without telling anyone else to leave.
 
Synov said:
If your vote isn't decisive then you die if the other voters prefer red.

As an example, let's say every voter besides you has a 50% chance of choosing blue. Then the probabilities of the voting outcomes follow a binomial distribution.

If n=population of earth then the expected number of deaths from choosing red is going to be P(tie) n/2

P(tie) = binomial(n, n/2) / 2^(n/2+1)

binomial(n,n/2) ~ 2^n / sqrt(pi*n/2)

So expected number of deaths is n*2^(n/2-2) / sqrt(pi*n/2)

Probability of your own death from choosing blue is P(blue < n/2) = sum from k=0 to n/2-1 of binomial(n, k) / 2^n

sum from k=0 to n/2-1 of binomial(n, k) = (2^n - binomial(n, n/2))/2

So P(blue < n/2) = 1/2 - binomial(n, n/2) / 2^(n+1) ~ 1/2 - 1/(2sqrt(pi*n/2))

The ratio between expected deaths and your chance of dying is how much value your life would need to have to choose red ~ n/(sqrt(pi*n/2)-1)

If n=8,298,979,488 then the ratio is 72,686.3

So in this example, choosing red is the same as saying that your life is more important than 72,686 strangers. It's kind of like that scene in The Sum of All Fears when they realize the nuclear bomb is in the football stadium and start rushing the President out without telling anyone else to leave.
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Now or in general?
I’m still pressing red anyway.
Like, dude, on average, in the world, seriously — in 99.99% of places, it’s actually dangerous.
Like, straight-up dangerous.
Meaning, there are a lot of places where you can’t just go out and walk around the street at night.
And most likely, it’s not because the majority would have pressed the blue button.
 
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