This isn't something that is unique to knives, this is also occurring with luxury watches as well. I would imagine there are some differences but there are a lot of similarities and I also imagine this is occurring with other luxury items as well. An aging US baby boomer populace and major economic changes are playing a major role. Some recent changes to Chinese law and luxury items also affected the luxury watch market. Ups and downs can always be seen from time to time but it really appears that this time some of these changes are going to be more permanent as the younger generation make less and have less discretionary funds.
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State of the state.....
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Dawkind
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I will sell them, no off-spring will inherit but very few knives or firearms, if any, so keep an eye out down the road....
Interesting thread... here is a newbie perspective.
Ok.. so a little about me... I am 47, lower middle class state worker in a justice field. Decent income in a low cost of living area.. As a kid of the 70/80's I had a couple of pocket knives that I have lost along the way.. got older, in college, partied hard, got married, settled down, had the rich man family 1 girl 1 boy and stereotypical dog. I love music...I have been a bit of an audiophile most of my life, deadhead since 79 and then I discover recording... I blew a ton of money over the years on recording gear and concert tickets 300 plus concerts and counting... I would say something in the area of around 20k just to record a concert and relive the experience over and over...real deadhead... About 1.5 years ago I came across a Kershaw cryo (I know not custom)... but it ignited the knife flame again and here I sit with 15 knives. But I am older and wiser and understand things a little better now..
Some lessons I learned.. while watching the decline of the stereo market. Stereo makers simply priced themselves out of the market. Sales people/ad push the multi k$ stereo making claim after claim of why you need to spend so much money. So you pull the trigger then comes the buyers remorse. I spent what on what... and then I began to understand the law of diminishing return. You quickly learn that you need to spend a little more to get quality.. but that diminishes in return in sound quality... the incremental improvements became smaller and smaller.
I had the same experience with recording gear... why spend 3k on a pair of microphones from boutique maker "A" when maker "B" who used to work for maker "A" makes a microphone at 1/3 of the price with just as good quality. All this to tell you I have had the same recording rig for about 8 years.. no need to upgrade.. I am very happy with my recordings..
Why does this all matter... because regardless of the product the same principle holds true. I get the passion, I understand the feeling, you want the best, you look for quality but for what.. a tool... a really expensive tool. Most people who buy an expensive knife do so just to look at it, play with it, display it, show it to friends. I would love to purchase a "insert top maker knife" but for what.. as an investment. Remember the economic down turn scared a lot of people, it can happen again having serval K$ tied up in a collection that if the economy turns south isn't going to sell hurts.
I believe the market is inflated, everyone is trying to cash in before the next big turn. Look I am not saying my opinion is the only one.. but if you want to know what a buyer thinks, well I am a buyer...
I lurked on BF for a while before joining... I do a lot of research before making a purchase... I just purchase within my means and don't see the need to spend in excess for what essentially would be something I am afraid to use because I dropped serious coin on it and don't want to scratch it.. regardless if you look at it as an investment or a tool, it is still just a knife. spending "X" amount is going to be different for everyone... for me 500 to 1k+ on knife is just insane. Again take my opinion with a grain a salt, but as a seller you have to know your buyers for we are your market. If you make a cool knife at the right price people will buy it.
Someone said in a previous post... essentially everyone one and their brother is a blacksmith now... making "A" knife..
For me there are simply to many chiefs and not enough Indians...
Thanks for the interesting thread.... peace OOK
Ok.. so a little about me... I am 47, lower middle class state worker in a justice field. Decent income in a low cost of living area.. As a kid of the 70/80's I had a couple of pocket knives that I have lost along the way.. got older, in college, partied hard, got married, settled down, had the rich man family 1 girl 1 boy and stereotypical dog. I love music...I have been a bit of an audiophile most of my life, deadhead since 79 and then I discover recording... I blew a ton of money over the years on recording gear and concert tickets 300 plus concerts and counting... I would say something in the area of around 20k just to record a concert and relive the experience over and over...real deadhead... About 1.5 years ago I came across a Kershaw cryo (I know not custom)... but it ignited the knife flame again and here I sit with 15 knives. But I am older and wiser and understand things a little better now..
Some lessons I learned.. while watching the decline of the stereo market. Stereo makers simply priced themselves out of the market. Sales people/ad push the multi k$ stereo making claim after claim of why you need to spend so much money. So you pull the trigger then comes the buyers remorse. I spent what on what... and then I began to understand the law of diminishing return. You quickly learn that you need to spend a little more to get quality.. but that diminishes in return in sound quality... the incremental improvements became smaller and smaller.
I had the same experience with recording gear... why spend 3k on a pair of microphones from boutique maker "A" when maker "B" who used to work for maker "A" makes a microphone at 1/3 of the price with just as good quality. All this to tell you I have had the same recording rig for about 8 years.. no need to upgrade.. I am very happy with my recordings..
Why does this all matter... because regardless of the product the same principle holds true. I get the passion, I understand the feeling, you want the best, you look for quality but for what.. a tool... a really expensive tool. Most people who buy an expensive knife do so just to look at it, play with it, display it, show it to friends. I would love to purchase a "insert top maker knife" but for what.. as an investment. Remember the economic down turn scared a lot of people, it can happen again having serval K$ tied up in a collection that if the economy turns south isn't going to sell hurts.
I believe the market is inflated, everyone is trying to cash in before the next big turn. Look I am not saying my opinion is the only one.. but if you want to know what a buyer thinks, well I am a buyer...
I lurked on BF for a while before joining... I do a lot of research before making a purchase... I just purchase within my means and don't see the need to spend in excess for what essentially would be something I am afraid to use because I dropped serious coin on it and don't want to scratch it.. regardless if you look at it as an investment or a tool, it is still just a knife. spending "X" amount is going to be different for everyone... for me 500 to 1k+ on knife is just insane. Again take my opinion with a grain a salt, but as a seller you have to know your buyers for we are your market. If you make a cool knife at the right price people will buy it.
Someone said in a previous post... essentially everyone one and their brother is a blacksmith now... making "A" knife..
For me there are simply to many chiefs and not enough Indians...
Thanks for the interesting thread.... peace OOK
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It's the economy and the changing demographics.
Loveless warned me about the economy back in 2007. It's all smoke and mirrors, is it really getting better? I don't see it. In fact, things look worse today. Imho, things have been in decline since 2000.
Also, today's younger generation couldn't appreciate a good handmade knife if they saw one. Most people under 30 have the focus and memory of a goldfish. They've grown up in an age of information overload. Nothing is historically significant or truly appreciated anymore. If they forget things so easily, then what value does anything have?
Loveless warned me about the economy back in 2007. It's all smoke and mirrors, is it really getting better? I don't see it. In fact, things look worse today. Imho, things have been in decline since 2000.
Also, today's younger generation couldn't appreciate a good handmade knife if they saw one. Most people under 30 have the focus and memory of a goldfish. They've grown up in an age of information overload. Nothing is historically significant or truly appreciated anymore. If they forget things so easily, then what value does anything have?
Dawkind
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You are a rare exception my young friend. Very few people, as a whole, appreciate the enormous skill and talent embodied in the hand-making of fine cutlery.
I was fortunate to witness such in Kansas City...World Class.
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Read an article this week that I thought was very relevant to the current situation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ainting-bought-to-flip-yours-for-about-20-000
Speculation drives prices up, encourages new people to start making things. Current people raise their prices and the bubble is off and running. Someone loses some money on a sale and the speculators try to jump out and the bubble collapses. It's a great article.
The glut of new unproven makers asking ridiculous prices for what they offer and current makers raise their prices to what dealers are getting. This removes a whole segment of people from the market who can't afford the new prices. The new price level can't be sustained and people start losing money which causes a panic. Don't even get me started on the cult of personality.
Everyone shares in the blame IMHO. Dealers, collectors and makers all got greedy and the new market they created was unsustainable.
CAVEAT: I collect mostly tactical folders and I believe this only applies to that market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ainting-bought-to-flip-yours-for-about-20-000
Speculation drives prices up, encourages new people to start making things. Current people raise their prices and the bubble is off and running. Someone loses some money on a sale and the speculators try to jump out and the bubble collapses. It's a great article.
The glut of new unproven makers asking ridiculous prices for what they offer and current makers raise their prices to what dealers are getting. This removes a whole segment of people from the market who can't afford the new prices. The new price level can't be sustained and people start losing money which causes a panic. Don't even get me started on the cult of personality.
Everyone shares in the blame IMHO. Dealers, collectors and makers all got greedy and the new market they created was unsustainable.
CAVEAT: I collect mostly tactical folders and I believe this only applies to that market.
I agree, no problems selling custom cutlery this weekend in KC...unless the maker wasn't ready for prime time. There were masterpieces and fine using knives. Knives at all prices and all levels of trim...not so much tacticool, but hey it's the Guild and ABS. There were young people there as well.
That was on Friday! My only disappointment was no Tony Bose, I didn't get to hear his wit and see this year's Case collaboration.
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I have some problems with this statement, I don't think it's particularly fair or useful
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sheathmaker
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Easy, Lorien, my friend. It's only a written opinion and is not binding on anyone other than the author.
Paul
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I don't agree with the statements either.
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I know that you understand, Paul
It's been on ongoing theme, probably throughout human history, for generations of people to look down upon one another as a group, depending on the time in which they were born. Statements that perpetuate this divisiveness seem to me to exacerbate the lack of communication, which causes the problem in the first place. Therefore, I find them to not be helpful.
For example, a 20 something hard working person with a disposable income, who's just discovered custom knives, comes here and reads the statement in question- what's the takeaway from that? Where's the incentive to become more deeply involved?
I think it's a turn off.
Take this to be true- I hate that it's Marcus' post which causes me to say my peace, I have utmost respect for him and his work, (peace, man!). But I've read comments like this time and again in this forum. And have also read many comments bemoaning the lack of newcomers to the field.
The fact is, we are all here, now. We have that in common and that is the best place to start from, imo. Individually and as a collective, we will be involved in determining where 'it' will go. My position is that the most efficient way forward is by, at the least, not generalizing characteristics based on things like age, especially in the pejorative.
It's been on ongoing theme, probably throughout human history, for generations of people to look down upon one another as a group, depending on the time in which they were born. Statements that perpetuate this divisiveness seem to me to exacerbate the lack of communication, which causes the problem in the first place. Therefore, I find them to not be helpful.
For example, a 20 something hard working person with a disposable income, who's just discovered custom knives, comes here and reads the statement in question- what's the takeaway from that? Where's the incentive to become more deeply involved?
I think it's a turn off.
Take this to be true- I hate that it's Marcus' post which causes me to say my peace, I have utmost respect for him and his work, (peace, man!). But I've read comments like this time and again in this forum. And have also read many comments bemoaning the lack of newcomers to the field.
The fact is, we are all here, now. We have that in common and that is the best place to start from, imo. Individually and as a collective, we will be involved in determining where 'it' will go. My position is that the most efficient way forward is by, at the least, not generalizing characteristics based on things like age, especially in the pejorative.
Russ Andrews
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Of those who have come by my shop....in search on learning.....most appear to be under 30 ( I consider that young.!), and some are
probably under 25.....
As a matter of potential perspective, Plato also had criticisms of the younger generation......as has each generation since......and it's possible
that what we may see as the younger's shortcomings, is little more than a reflection of our failure to invest in them....
probably under 25.....
As a matter of potential perspective, Plato also had criticisms of the younger generation......as has each generation since......and it's possible
that what we may see as the younger's shortcomings, is little more than a reflection of our failure to invest in them....
jdm61
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I get the impression that a number of knife makers, including a number of guys who are fellow BFC paying members with subforums, are doing well selling fairly reasonably priced outdoors/bushcraft "user" fixed blades and that some of their customers may be a bit younger. Those folks may not consider themselves to be collectors, but a fair number of them seem to buy more user knives than they can reasonably use at one time.
Kohai999
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Does this sustain the knife community as a whole....because it is and has often been the sum total of contribution of both maker and collector/user?
Let me be very clear....as I read the entrails under the moonlight, we are currently in a massive correction, and the happy blithe bastards that stumble in both maker and collector are not going to make it in the long run without discipline and focus.
Best Regards,
STeven Garsson
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Scurvy, Lycosa,
I linked that Bloomberg story in post #3 of this thread. Sheesh.... kids these days... no attention span, never listening, always looking for instant gratification...
What an insightful and profound perspective. As a highly engaged father and close observer of other parenting styles I see a lot of truth in this statement. The next generation doesn't just happen on its own, and whether parents or mentors we have a responsibility to teach and to lead. This is just as true in our community here as it is in any other community, and evokes again some of the prior comments about cultivating and nurturing new collectors. Words to think about... Thanks Russ
I linked that Bloomberg story in post #3 of this thread. Sheesh.... kids these days... no attention span, never listening, always looking for instant gratification...
What an insightful and profound perspective. As a highly engaged father and close observer of other parenting styles I see a lot of truth in this statement. The next generation doesn't just happen on its own, and whether parents or mentors we have a responsibility to teach and to lead. This is just as true in our community here as it is in any other community, and evokes again some of the prior comments about cultivating and nurturing new collectors. Words to think about... Thanks Russ
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Didn't mean to offend anyone. Opinions are simply rash statements, without too much thought, and shouldn't be taken so seriously.
Seeing how much things have changed in California over the past 40 years, I wrote that -along with having 3 children, ranging in age from 9 to 29.
From a time when pocket knives were sold in Disneyland when I was a child, to the current "fear mongering" pushed on today's youth by Politicians and bureaucrats in the States, I personally don't see a bright future for knives (or firearms) in this country. Common sense and trust seem to have gone out the window.
Maybe the "Tactical folder" world is different, but when I wrote that -I was thinking about the work during the Golden age of knifemaking. To me, the work of Loveless, Moran, Warenski, etc. -just to mention a few well known makers (there are many, many more great makers who aren't so well known!!) is timeless -but only a very small percentage of unique 20-30 year olds in California can slow down enough to take a look and appreciate the work in detail.
Don't want to get in a debate about CNC here, but holding one of these "classic" knives is as uniquely American as an original Colt Peacemaker or a '67 Mustang. A CNC'd knife, to me, is similar to a Glock or a Tesla -it may be numerically controlled perfection, but the raw talent is missing. On a grander scale, can anyone alive today recreate the Sistine Chapel, or have the skills been lost and forgotten? Did the demand for pushing the limits of human skill wane for faster mass production?
Maybe it's simply a shift in demographic interest and financial abilities? Maybe we're just all getting old? However, for me, the important thing is to collect for YOU ... then it doesn't matter what happens financially.
Please carry on the discussion and ignore my ramblings if they seem to be offensive -although none is intended.
Thank you for having the guts to bring this up Steven. :thumbup:
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