State of the state.....

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Wulf said:
Going back to demographics and economics, I'd like to make a few very important points.

First, demographics are the single most important driver of major secular macro-economic trends. Period.

Second, we are now at a point where a combination of demographic shifts and global debt levels will spell ruin for many businesses, individuals, economies and governments over the coming decades. Period.

Global debt levels (consumer debt, corporate debt, and government debt) have risen to unsustainable levels, while the rate of growth in the number of new workers and new consumers is declining rapidly. Productivity has also fallen.

In the countries most acutely impacted by these demographic and debt issues, some or all of the following must occur:
-Taxes must rise substantially in order to service the rising debts and cover growing entitlement costs
-Government expenditures must decline meaningfully - this will include salaries, healthcare, and pension benefits for government employees and dependents
-Inflation must rise, so as to erode the value of outstanding debts
-Governments must default on at least some of their obligations (state and local government bonds, state and local government pension funds, social security perhaps?)

Again, some or all of the above must occur. This is not opinion but a mathematical certainty. Some of it is occurring now, but there will be far, far more to come. The spending, saving,and investment habits of many informed consumers are already beginning to adapt to this reality, but many more still don't fully understand the true implications of above 100% debt to GDP ratios amid aging populations and slowing productivity growth. Not to sound alarmist, but in some places it will spell complete economic collapse (see Venezuela, Greece, and Cyprus... Puerto Rico, Illinois, and many others are quickly on the way...)
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Agree 100%. Part of the reason the agreement my wife and I came to that any knife purchased while we have babies will be capable of being 100% functional as a tool, and why we live well below a standard our income could provide and generally have significant savings.
 
Hmmm, so everyone is saying that the market for hand-forged titanium swords made vaguely in the style of Ming dynasty weapons is doomed?

I'll just get my hat and coat. :D


32mmP3Q.gif





Just kidding!

Kohai999 said:
...

Let me be very clear....as I read the entrails under the moonlight, we are currently in a massive correction, and the happy blithe bastards that stumble in both maker and collector are not going to make it in the long run without discipline and focus.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
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Perhaps the most difficult -and important- part of it all.
 
Sam- You have nothing to worry about. You are a ground breaker who knows what to do with that pile of dirt. Plus, it's good timimg for the Titanium blade, and timing is a good thing, as they say.
rolf
 
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location, location, location!
(temporal, that is :) )
 
STeven, I need to point out one aspect which is playing a direct role in this thread's (your?) perception of 'State of the State'.

You claim you aren't involved in Facebook OR Instagram social media. For reasons, I understand. No for everyone. But it can't be dismissed.

The HOWEVER, is that there are transactions and sales happening WAY MORE than you are aware, and that dealer websites are not the only barometer of sales.

These 'suckers' (Lorien's term) are happily bypassing the middlemen and directly creating their own network of trade. Like it or don't, there is a TON of $$$ being processed privately.

Unless this is factored in it's not a truly accurate SoS.

I don't disagree that there is overpricing, yet I do state there is energy and abundant interest in dress tacticals, which is, because of the growth nature of IG and FB, reaching new audiences. It's possibly a bit of a pyramid thing, but that's ALSO what happening.

Years ago, I asked Mace Vitale why he wasn't posting on BF so much. He then stated, that 90% of the interest in his work and sales was through FB. No time to post in an area where it didn't support him as much.

There are aspects of this conversation which remind me of a bunch of guys down at the VFW hall, grousing why there isn't the vibrant crowd there anymore. We're a bunch of OLD FARTS in an outdated medium (Which I still love. :D)

I'm not an authority, and you can poke many holes in my words, but I wanted to say this as another viewpoint.

Coop
 
Coop, you put into words what Ive been thinking about this thread. I have (reluctantly) joined instagram and a facebook page in the interest of my knives. Facebook seems to be now the "old" medium as they have been really screwing with their model. But instagram I am absolutely blown away by. The amount and speed that things are selling is incredible. A friend of mine just sold a 3500$ painting...through instagram! That is a direct transaction with no middleman other than paypal or soemthing. I am increasingly buying handle materials on instagram b/c thats where all the "coolest" new stuff is. People are buying this stuff up so fast most sales that I see are being done by live auction. I have not been looking at user profiles but I would put money on it that majority of this is 20 and maybe 30 something year olds.
 
SharpByCoop said:
There are aspects of this conversation which remind me of a bunch of guys down at the VFW hall, grousing why there isn't the vibrant crowd there anymore. We're a bunch of OLD FARTS in an outdated medium (Which I still love. :D)


Coop
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Very relevant post

Those that have been around custom knives long enough know exactly what is going on ...... than there are some that are in denial :)
 
SharpByCoop said:
These 'suckers' (Lorien's term) are happily bypassing the middlemen and directly creating their own network of trade.
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you misinterpreted what I said, I think
when I used that term, I meant people who get caught up in the emotion of buying and end up paying an inflated price. I wasn't referring to the method by which they do it
 
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Coop, you have a brilliant clarity in your words (not just images) and don't miss a thing. Tim, I agree 110% about Instagram. Many knife makers are doing what appears to be great business through instagram. Take Chuck Gedraitis for example.. I always see posts with five or six knives roughly shaped and cut. They are simply plain colored metal with no hint of materials, yet its exciting to see how they turn out and you can get a sense of a design before its really even created yet. If I was buying knives right now I would be tempted to say, hey I'll take that one when done! I'm sure flash sales happen all the time from any variety of pics posted on instagram. BTW, Erik Markman does it too. I'm forgetting so many others. Why bother posting a WIP here, when you can just quickly post a photo from your phone to instagram, with or with out a caption. I am still young at 33 but the younger kids I manage tell me facebook is out and they only use instagram (and other things I haven't heard of).

Great thread Steven.
 
Lorien said:
you misinterpreted what I said, I think
when I used that term, I meant people who get caught up in the emotion of buying and end up paying an inflated price. I wasn't referring to the method by which they do it
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You did use the term flippantly pointing towards new, young, and EXCITED buyers. No, they aren't investment educated, but no one that I have seen outside of THIS forum is calling 'Fire!' This new growth in desire is what we've been hoping for for years.

And then I found it ironic because soon after, you groused at Marcus for his bold negative generalization of the new, younger crowd. Hello?

Ya know, if they wish to spend money at perceived luxury, that's their deal. Obviously (hopefully?), it's discretionary income.

My perception: Tacticals morphed into Dress Tacticals which are now joining Kitchen knives in the new generation of desire. Get on board!

I don't know that the 'sky is falling' for those who have adapted. Believe me, I have catching up to do as well, yet I won't generalize.

But I'm an old fart, and I see the movements even if I'm not directly involved.

I'm curious about the Gathering (Mostly Tactical) compared to other Shows. If that show is in decline, I'll shrug. I dunno.

Coop
 
Coop, I think you've hit the nail on the head here. I can easily post a pic on Instagram and you can pretty much guarantee that 8,000 + people will view it. Smaller crowd here on BF. My business has never been better. Dress tactical is big for me right now...but then I'm just a knuckledragger out here in the hills swinging a hammer so what do I know;)
 
lol!! ^
Great thread!
If I may, my Willumsen Tuco is one of the nicest folders I have ever owned and it's a so-called tactical. Superb craftsmanship is universal.
rolf
 
SharpByCoop said:
You did use the term flippantly pointing towards new, young, and EXCITED buyers. No, they aren't investment educated, but no one that I have seen outside of THIS forum is calling 'Fire!' This new growth in desire is what we've been hoping for for years.

And then I found it ironic because soon after, you groused at Marcus for his bold negative generalization of the new, younger crowd. Hello?

Ya know, if they wish to spend money at perceived luxury, that's their deal. Obviously (hopefully?), it's discretionary income.

My perception: Tacticals morphed into Dress Tacticals which are now joining Kitchen knives in the new generation of desire. Get on board!

I don't know that the 'sky is falling' for those who have adapted. Believe me, I have catching up to do as well, yet I won't generalize.

But I'm an old fart, and I see the movements even if I'm not directly involved.

I'm curious about the Gathering (Mostly Tactical) compared to other Shows. If that show is in decline, I'll shrug. I dunno.

Coop
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Jim, if you go back and read my post again, (attached below) you'll notice that I made no mention of age- you inferred that part totally on your own.

Emotional buying, (you use the word EXCITED, but I'll give you that one) afflicts both young and old, and if you think that only young people can be suckers then you're actually manifesting the point I made in response to Marcus' earlier post, (which I personally wouldn't call 'grousing', since I thought it was a legitimate point to make).

I didn't say 'lots of suckers' flippantly. For reasons that Steven's pointed out many times over the years here, when a knife buying 'sucker' finds out they're been 'suckered', (by losing money on something they've been lead to believe has the value they paid, or more) then the cutlery industry more likely gains an antagonist than a supporter. When there are lots of suckers, there is a big problem. In any industry.

By the way, a 'sucker' can be anyone. It's not a constant state of being, it's the outcome of being swindled, and that's not always our fault. I say 'our' because we've all been a sucker at one point or another, myself included.

I think it's unfortunate that you disregarded the rest of what I said in my post. That was the entire other half of my point *shrug*

At any rate, I'm going to opt out of this conversation. Being accused of hypocrisy sucks the wind out of any interaction.


Lorien said:
it will happen again, it's happening now. Lots of suckers paying top dollar who are going to lose in the long run. Knives aren't going anywhere, but if you want to continue enjoying them, it's necessary to to be educated and patient
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SharpByCoop said:
You did use the term flippantly pointing towards new, young, and EXCITED buyers. No, they aren't investment educated, but no one that I have seen outside of THIS forum is calling 'Fire!' This new growth in desire is what we've been hoping for for years.
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The thread wasn't started to call fire, Kumbaya Coop, it was started to say that I smell smoke and let's discuss it.

One thing that this s/f does not have is a lot of Bromancing Fanboys sharing The Love, and that tends to color the discussion.

You've been pointed in your last two responses, and now it is time for some of that back.

You can(and do) make money on every facet of the knife game, makers, dealers and collectors alike.

Calling for some serious assessment of money spent on knives AND related products to our industry and community is not in your best interest. It has been and remains in your best interest to be a positive cheerleader for this industry.....it does not necessarily work in my best interest.....as overall, I've tried to be a voice of reason more often than not....there is not a lot of financial gain in being a voice of reason.

SharpByCoop said:
And then I found it ironic because soon after, you groused at Marcus for his bold negative generalization of the new, younger crowd. Hello?

Ya know, if they wish to spend money at perceived luxury, that's their deal. Obviously (hopefully?), it's discretionary income.
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What about when it isn't discretionary income? I spend RENT money on knives back when I was just starting out. I made it work out by working harder and hustling....but to LOSE money on deals back then(it happened, and doesn't need to be dragged over again, SEARCH works) was like getting kicked in the balls. It hurt, it was a wakeup and I didn't want to experience it a whole lot.

SharpByCoop said:
My perception: Tacticals morphed into Dress Tacticals which are now joining Kitchen knives in the new generation of desire. Get on board!

I don't know that the 'sky is falling' for those who have adapted. Believe me, I have catching up to do as well, yet I won't generalize.

But I'm an old fart, and I see the movements even if I'm not directly involved.

I'm curious about the Gathering (Mostly Tactical) compared to other Shows. If that show is in decline, I'll shrug. I dunno.

Coop
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I would say that you have a tendency to be optomistic, and I think having a teenaged son and coaching rowing color your perception of the world to the rosier hue.

The sky isn't falling, but the indicators have shown a correction, my sources from within the industry confirm it, and I've shared that information here. I welcome your discussion and participation, as I do Lorien's...and everyone else's.

If you want information on how makers did at The Gathering, ask them.....I did. There is a post just started about the ICCE show, which should do well, and may have....not so much.

Blade is one show that I would expect to do well and if it starts dropping down, I know FOR SURE that things are gonna get tight for all of us.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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Kohai999 said:
...Calling for some serious assessment of money spent on knives AND related products to our industry and community is not in your best interest. It has been and remains in your best interest to be a positive cheerleader for this industry.....it does not necessarily work in my best interest.....as overall, I've tried to be a voice of reason more often than not....there is not a lot of financial gain in being a voice of reason...I would say that you have a tendency to be optomistic, and I think having a teenaged son and coaching rowing color your perception of the world to the rosier hue...
If you want information on how makers did at The Gathering, ask them.....I did. There is a post just started about the ICCE show, which should do well, and may have....not so much.
...
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Kohai, you do have a stake in being chicken little, it gets you attention, which is your life blood in this small industry. Also it sounds like your having trouble selling some of your collection...despite your reputation as an astute collector.

Coop goes to a lot of shows, but you talk about faceless people who tell you about shows you didn't go to. Coop is a serious collector by any standards and we get to see his collection. By the nature of Coop's business, he talks to a lot of people on both sides of the table. The fact that he has a son and coaches a sport doesn't make him overly optimistic, it makes him normal. Why not back up your theories with the names and specifics of your facts?

Blade is the 50lb gorilla in the knife world, maybe taking some of the wind out of that show would be a good thing? The ICCE show has the opportunity to do that, but if collectors will wait for Blade...? I've never been to Blade, but from what I've been told it is a sea of all things knife, the ICCE is just for custom/handmade knives and right now it is equidistant from both coasts.
 
This game is always changing, more noticeable at times & not so noticeable at others.

We are seeing corrections now, but we have in the past also.

This election coming up has a lot to do with the 'weirdness' of the custom knife market lately.

Steven sees what's happening around him. Coop sees what is happening around him. Neither is wrong.
 
Lorien and STeven: Very astute counterpoints. Thanks.

I'm not going point for point, because I would probably 'lose' the interaction. Some I see as valid, some I stand firm. Like you guys. :)

However, all of our points have been made and I'm certainly not standing so firm I can't be persuaded to another point of view.

I think we all added through our dialog, more education for the reader.

Yes, I have my livelihood at stake. Being neutral is hard. LOL!

Thank you.

Jim
 
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