Even if the tariffs end up having no effect on the show (this is what I anticipate probably happening), nobody right now can know that one way or another so there are a lot of foreign buyers who would normally be buying airplane tickets and reserving hotel rooms that are sitting it out this year.
I call it the chaos tax where, when nobody knows what's going on, everybody slows down and stops what they're doing to wait out the insanity, and this drives sales and production to a halt for a lot of industries.
I could buy some steel right now. It's about time to. But I would pay 18% more than I would have a month ago. If I wait a month maybe I'll pay 50% more. Or maybe 50% less. How the hell am I supposed to make a choice in this environment? Everything is a gamble right now.
I just had a spindle rebuilt. It really wasn't an option. But it cost $1,000 more than it would have at the beginning of the year because they priced it higher because they anticipated the replacement bearings being more expensive. But now maybe that's not the case. Meaning they're going to pocket $1,000 that I had to pay because of the timing and the chaos. Good for them, bad for me.
There will be winners and there will be losers, and it will largely be a matter of luck, not skilled choices and good planning. It would be a net zero gamble, meaning there's really no overall upside, but the chaos tax actually actively destroys wealth so there will be more losers here than winners. Manufacturers need the ability to create long-term plans and the current situation prevents any serious manufacturer from being able to predict what's going to happen in just a few weeks, much less several months or years.
