The Blade Show-A LOT of Overpriced Customs

[cockroachfarm]

....Danbo, nice to see you again at the show. You seemd to have one of the better selections of the dealers there without a table.

ROFLMAO!

BTW, great thread for us newbie collectors (despite the occasional personal jibes amongst the more knowledgeable participants). Wish there was a similar discussion about high-end folders. Learning a lot here; please continue. :thumbup:

 

[mlovett]

Thanks guys! OOP's I screw up and posted on B-F again! Lombardo, sorry I offended you. I can only comment on personal experience. I can see no reason why it is wrong to tell you what I observed at blade happening to my knives first hand. Would you have been as offended if the maker responding would have been one of your fav's, that you have been mentioning? Is that advertising on your part? I don't think so. I think you are contributing to this thread, in the way that you see fit. I for one appreciate it. Don't see the reason for a flame, as we are all knife people! With that said, to me, there are many types of buyers. Real users, collectors,(They buy because they like what they collect, with out need or desire for profit) Investor collectors, who like what they purchase, but with an eye toward a profit down the road, and dealers, who look to the profit up front, but usually started out just liking knives. As to Loveless, Merritt, and My self, there is a whole lot more going on than simple duplication. It will come out when we are ready for it to come out, and not before! Obscurity? Been doing this for over 30 years now. I make knife for the sportsman, adventurer, soldier. Not for collectors of art. Lovett knives have never been obscure in their intended market. But thanks for saying so. I'm sure that Lovett Knives are at least as well known as Anthony Lombardo. Isn't it great being so important Anthony! Sorry, couldn't let a mean spirited flame go totally unanswered , Mike Lovett http://www.lovettknives.com/

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Mike, if you had read the entire thread before posting you would have seen that we are in agreement about many things.

Not all knives are good investments. Maybe very few knives are good investments. It seems that collectors of Loveless style knives think that yours are. Thats good, as the Loveless style market is very competitive.

You obviously do what you do quite well or else you wouldn't have sold out.
But I am afraid you are in a minority of makers who successfully attended the Blade show from what I could see.

FYI, It wasn't what you said, but how you said it. I have no desire to be famous, but if I can help a maker or new collector I will try.

I make knife for the sportsman, adventurer, soldier. Not for collectors of art.

You better double check your prices then. I know very few professional men of action and adventure from my time in the knife business that carry anything in the field that costs more than a few hundred bucks. I would guesstimate that 75-80% of custom fixed blade knives never, ever get used, but then again, maybe your knives are an anomaly. People on military pay usually have a hard time swallowing $2500 for a fighting knife that will usually spend more time opening MRE's and spreading peanut butter than anything else.

I am looking forward to seeing your future Loveless collaboration. I may not buy it, but I would certainly appreciate it.

One problem with a thread like this, is that a maker who had a POOR showing isn't going to come online and admit it. Most probably have no idea what their ROI was anyway, but only the makrs who did well will usually comment.

I hope this thread is constructive, honest and open. We can save the personal commentary for offline or private email.

 

[SpyderJon]

Okay, so I've got a question. I like Hunter-style knives as I said before. I'm always looking for something more, and always looking to learn of new people to look for. Please don't be offended by my asking, because I'm trying to learn. In any case, if I wanted something that was:

4" or below blade
Hunter style
Good Fit and Finish
Forged
Sub- $500

who would YOU suggest?

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

I would suggest starting another thread and be more specific-steel type, handle materials, style-- I think you will get a lot of honest responses from people who own many forged custom knives.

 

[mlovett]

Anthony I agree completely. that has been the suggestion to price the lovett fighters there, but in reality, I currently charge 1250. for a full on Big Bear, which makes mine the lowest in the market for the type, fit, and finish. my combat knives start at 375.. and hunters at the same. Well in the range of modern soldiers. I see factory and semi hand made's in this price range often. Sorry my Texas style of writing and putting things offends you. Thats just who, and what I am. And am comfortable with it. Remember the Alamo!!! Now I've got knives to make! Mike Lovett http://www.lovettknives.com/

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Mike, email sent. I appreciate your honesty and forthrightness.

 

[RogerP]

Okay, so I've got a question. I like Hunter-style knives as I said before. I'm always looking for something more, and always looking to learn of new people to look for. Please don't be offended by my asking, because I'm trying to learn. In any case, if I wanted something that was:

4" or below blade
Hunter style
Good Fit and Finish
Forged
Sub- $500

who would YOU suggest?

SpyderJon,

The answer to the question as asked would be a looooong list indeed. I agree with Anthony's suggestion - a question worthy of a new thread, but add in as many specifics as you can. A $500 and under quality forged hunter is something many MSs and any number of JSs and apprentice smiths could provide.

Roger

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Joss,

A couple more points then I will let you off the hook. As you are obviously getting frustrated.

The same type people who can get 6 Carson model 4's are the same type people you work with that can put together a 1 Billion $$ M & A. They the people who have the knowledge, connections and were probably on board for the project early on. Well before your company got on board.

I understand your frustration with not being able to apply logical financial models and forumlas to custom knives.

In the current issue of Business 2.0 (Don't know if you read that or not). They have an article on Guitars. In 2000 there was very little profit to be made, however in the last 6 years the profit margin has shot up 80%. They compare this to other "Collectible" markets such as paintings which have seen an increase of 20% over the same period of time. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (having dipped as low as -20%) is sitting about 4%.

An interesting thing about this article is that they suggest an expert in the field before you buy the guitar. Apprasial fees run about $150.

Also note that collectibles such as paintings are up 16% over the DJIA over the same time frame.

This all goes back to what I wrote earlier is that you have to understand the market, the collectible and the players. Your hi-tech M & A financial software will do you no good in the custom knife market.

Since we were discussing makers such as Tim Hancock earlier. I have a question for you Joss. Knife Art has a Hancock Hunter for $1800. It is know to those interested in Tim's work that Knife Art paid $1,500 for the knife. This is only a 20% mark up (this is unusual for Knife Art to have such a small mark up) that aside; this may be the only sub-$2000 Hancock currently for sale.

So the question is, why is this knife still available?

Does the fact that this dealer will not take any knife back at the price they sold it for on a trade in have any affect on their ability to sell the knife? Perhaps people feel that if the business who sold it doesn't think it will hold its value maybe they shouldn't look to that business for investment grade knives. I don't know the answer, just wondering what you think.

As Tim will be making fewer knives in the future and is currently raising his prices slightly. Isn't this a great buy for a Hancock collector?

I would suggest to you if Knife Art or any other dealer would put a Carson on their site for sale at 20% mark up, it would not last the day.

So, the next question is, is Carson a better maker? Is Carson a better investment?

Why are people willing to pay upwards of a 120% premium for a Carson model 4, yet they are not willing to pay a 20% premium for a Hancock.

What variables are at play here and how would you weight each?

The answer is simpler than you think and requires no math.

WWG

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Spyderjon,

There are at least 20 makers who come to mind with regards to your question.

Also, you didn't mention if one of your criteria was "investment" grade.

WWG

 

[SpyderJon]

WWG, I started a new thread, Please feel free to give me some suggestions (websites are helpful as well)! Thanks!

 

[JeremyM]

Since we were discussing makers such as Tim Hancock earlier. I have a question for you Joss. Knife Art has a Hancock Hunter for $1800. It is know to those interested in Tim's work that Knife Art paid $1,500 for the knife. This is only a 20% mark up (this is unusual for Knife Art to have such a small mark up) that aside; this may be the only sub-$2000 Hancock currently for sale.

So the question is, why is this knife still available?

Um, it isn't.

 

[brightred]

The answer is simpler than you think and requires no math.

is it? WWG, is your answer also applicable to other high end knives that seem to be difficult to sell, like those by fisk (bob neal) or fuegen (knifeart)? thanks for the enlightenment!

brightred

 

[Kohai999]

So, the next question is, is Carson a better maker? Is Carson a better investment?

Why are people willing to pay upwards of a 120% premium for a Carson model 4, yet they are not willing to pay a 20% premium for a Hancock.

What variables are at play here and how would you weight each?

The answer is simpler than you think and requires no math.

WWG

1. Carson is a different maker, not a better one. Each category of knives have their "kings". I will say that Kit's blades have always been a scosh short for the handle, but that is a tradeoff for the extra security of having a full surrounded pivot. Carson will probably be a better "investment" in the long run, but I think that the aftermarket prices are not going to go much higher than they are now. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

is it? WWG, is your answer also applicable to other high end knives that seem to be difficult to sell, like those by fisk (bob neal) or fuegen (knifeart)? thanks for the enlightenment!

Hans, I'd like to take a "stab" at this one,

I think that the more desireable Fisks on Bob's site are at the high end of what they should cost, and are high dollar pieces. As the buying pool at this end is much smaller, it will be a while before they sell, but they will sell, and at the prices asked for.

Knifeart is a tough one. He charges a premium on his prices, and he won't take trades or buy back. I won't do business with him, and I don't know very many people that will, no do I encourage anyone else to. QPR is questionable from knife to knife.

That said, if he has THE piece that you are looking for, than buy it. That is not encouragement, that is simply saying, "follow your bliss". Don't be upset if you take a loss when you sell the knife. The Fuegens that he has are marked fairly, but they are not Larry's best work. The bowie is nice, and if I did not abhor nickel silver on these types of knives, I would consider the piece. It is a special one.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[Don Hanson III]

I was going to stay out of this one but with comments like "most makers had a bad show" I just had to jump in.

I had a very good Blade Show, I brought seven knives (folders and forged fixed blades) priced between $1500 and $3200 and sold five. My higher priced knives sold first and I received several orders also. This was my ninth Blade show and they have all been very good for me. Cliff Parker was next to me and sold out early (three folders and one fixed blade). Jody Muller was on the other side and sold all but one (five or six folders and fixed blades). Hogstrom sold a good number of knives also. I can't speak for the other makers there but I did hear of others having a good show. I did notice lots of lower end knives still on tables Sunday morning though. I was in the ABS section table 20-0.

This is not an advertisement

Edit to add: With all that has been said about Blade, I feel the show is now TOO large. It is going to continue to be difficult for the masses to sell knives there.

 

[Keith Montgomery]

From what I have read, attendance was down quite a bit this year. If that indeed was the case, then it would be a big part of why there were not as many sales. With so many makers exhibiting, this is a show that must get an excellent turnout or overall sales are going to be disappointing.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

The Friday attendance was lower than most years, IMO and competition is higher than ever before.

Don, I am glad you had a good show. You seem to have a loyal following.

I feel the show is now TOO large. It is going to continue to be difficult for the masses to sell knives there.

In order for a bladesmith (any maker) to stay in business they should be making products that are price, design and quality competitive or else they may as well stay home.

I wonder how many $1500 gentlemans bowies and $500 hunters remained on tables Sunday afternoon?

I guess we can blame a poor showing on attendance or gas prices or the weather, but in reality there also were a lot of cash buyers there who were looking for something unique to buy and couldn't swallow some of the prices, IMO.

 

[Don Hanson III]

The Friday attendance was lower than most years, IMO and competition is higher than ever before.

Don, I am glad you had a good show. You seem to have a loyal following.

Thanks Anthony, this has been a very interesting read. I also noticed attendance being lower than last year. Folks filled in slowly this year unlike the normal mad rush of years past.

 

[Les Robertson]

Guys,

When you are discussing "investment" grade knives quality may have little to do with it.

Bill Moran and Bill Scagel did work that if it did not have their names on it, many here wouldn't even give it a second look. But because of who they are their place in history becomes more important than the quality.

Early Emerson tacticals were ok at best compared to some like Carson or Terzuola. But his knives caught on and the laws of supply and demand to hold. Lack of quality, lack of honoring orders and curious construction method did not slow down the buyers.

However, those who bought at the height of the Emerson craze are now holding knives that they will never get what they paid for them. Emerson to his credit kept his prices pretty much stable and for the most part was not responsible for the collapse of his aftermarket.

The smart "Investors" identify a trend early, buy the knives then sell the knives for a quick profit to buy more and continue this trend until they see sales slow. At that point they liquidate their holdings and move on to the next hot maker.

Which in this case was Ken Onion.

Ok Brightred here is your answer.

High end knives (as you and others pointed out) have a smaller buyer pool.

Additionally, those who have the money to buy a $3,000 and up custom knife prefer something "New". As well many want to have something built especially for them. Because of this the client pool becomes even smaller.

Then if you add in dealers who charge a premium and don't stand behind the makers and their knives. You eliminate even more of the client pool.

Not picking on Tim, just using him as an example. Tim's prices have always been on the high end of the scale for his position in the market. He is a gifted craftsman and expects to be compensated for such. Because he held that position he built up a personal clientel, that for the most part did not include dealers. Most of this clientel would prefer to work directly with Tim. You can't blame them for this. They appreciate the level of craftsmanship and are willing to pay for it.

This is similar to the following that Ed Folwer has. His prices have sky rockted, personally I don't get it. Obviously that has not hurt Ed any.

Ed's pricing and his ability to train other makers have slowed his sales in the aftermarket. Those who like Ed's work but can't afford his prices or just want similar quality at a reduced price are now looking at Ed's student (For the life of me I can't remember his name).

Some may view his work as a better investment as they are getting him on the way up. Where they may view Ed's prices as having peaked.

Most of the "Legends" have adopted the same pattern over the last 25 or so years. They work their butts off, get a following, and rise to the top of their profession. Along the way they build a great client base who are waiting for their next knife.

Then their prices escalate and the pool becomes smaller, but willing to pay more and more money.

The makers stop going to shows, they stop advertising and are content to build knives for a very select client base. Almost all of this work goes into private collections to the point where no one sees the work and the name starts to be forgotten. To the point that new collectors coming in as little as 5 years later have no idea who this maker is. Go another 5 years and the next generation of knife buyers does not know who you are, nor do they have any interest in your knives.

Incredible WORLD CLASS HALL OF FAME makers who have fallen into this trap:

Buster Warenski
Fred Carter
Steve Hoel
Charlie Weis
Willie Rigney
Billy Imel (althought I did see him for the first time in years at the Blade Show)
Herman Schneider

and there are many others who can be added to this list.

They were/are great guys, did/do world class work... superstars one and all.

Right now there are people reading this who have never heard of these makers.

How long do you think it will take before people won't know who Moran or Loveless are?

Markers are responsible for building the next generation of buyers. They have to give a place for those who supported them early on to sell those pieces and move up to more expenisve knives. Failure to do so is like playing a game of musical chairs. Except this time when the music stops you are the only one left and are holding a knife you will never get your money out of,

At this point the prices flatten and then start to drop as collectors are willing to take a loss in order to generate funds to move to the next purchase.

This of course sends a signal to those collectors of knives from that maker to start selling off their knives. Pretty soon they are showing up everywhere which does two things. Introduces that maker to a whole new audience (especially with the Internet) and at the same time signals it is time to sell to every person out there with this makers knives.

The smart investors divest their holdings and if they still want an example of that makers work they buy when the prices hit rock bottom.

THis allows the collector to have a makers knife in their collection for even less money. IF that maker gets hot again (similar to what happened with Lile Knives starting in 2002) they can sell the knife at a higher price and make money twice on the same knife.

All of this takes insight and research. You cannot just meerly buy a knife and hope.

As person after person has pointed out in this threads custom knives do not make good investments. Which of course is a bunch of crap. As we have shown that there are custom knives, bought from the right makers, at the right time and then sold at the right time will turn a profit.

Two reasons why custom knives are not investments:

1) Collectors are collectors not investors. They buy what they like, not what will created a profit.

2) Too many makers work with dealers like Knife Art who will not take their knives back in trade on another knife. These dealers are telling all of you that the very knife you are buying from them is not worth what you are paying for it. If it were, they would have no problem taking it back in trade.

Some use BS excuses like "we only sell new knives". LOL Call that dealer up and tell them you have an Onion that you carried once and only want $600 for it. Or a Loveless you found in a drawer that your Dad bought in 1960 and you want to sell it. They would come up with the money for that knife in a heart beat.

The latest scam is a restocking fee. Yes you have your 5-7 day inspection period. Yes, you have to pay shipping both ways if you return it and now on top of that you have to pay a restocking fee. A restocking fee???? What so the dealer can take the knife out of your box and put it back in their safe. Whew.....that can be exhasuting, labor intensive and time consuming work....NOT.

This is directly off a dealers web site:

"Shipping charges are not refundable and all returns are subject to a 5% restocking and credit card processing fee."

Note: The credit card processing fee is a bunch of crap. If I run a credit card for $100, I get $97 and the bank gets $3. When I run a credit you get the entire $100 back. I am refunded the $3 service feel. There are no credit card processing fees. Not from Visa/MC/Amex/Discover anyway.

Who's fault is this type of dealer? You guessed it:

1) YOU the collector. You buy a knife that when the dealer has it, the knife is worth the list price. However, when you own it and want to trade it back (In mint condition) the knife is now a TURD and worth little or nothing.

2) YOU the maker for selling to them. By allowing the dealers to sell you work at a premium (even after you have given them a discount) and then not stand behind it. You are telling the buyers out there that you don't care if your knives hold their value.

As Anthony has pointed out a "Market Correction" is coming. Guess which makers are going to be at the top of this list.

If you are buying knives that are not holding or going up in value it may be time to do some research.

WWG

 

[mlovett]

One of the things I really like about http://knifelegends.com/ Is they stand by the knives they sell. John Hanlon, and Paul Schindler are stand up guys. But they only handle the up scale works. Mike