The Blade Show-A LOT of Overpriced Customs

[Wulf]

Anthony - the specific knives I mentioned above are just some of the pieces that came home with me. There were a number of other very reasonably priced knives from a few relatively new makers as well (some fresh JS and a few I had never seen before), and personally, I think that's part of the fun of going to a big knife show. Poking around, seeing new faces, meeting new makers and discovering the new gems.

One more interesting anecdote - I bought a mosaic damascus bowie that Tom Ferry had made, and when I asked him about the steel, I joked that it probably started out as a 6 pound billet. He replied "more like thirty." Tell me that knife's cost wasn't impacted by rising steel prices...

STeven, Jack Daniels is crap. Try some Woodford Reserve some time. Or, if you like a hard biting sippin' whiskey, try Bookers. It's not my favorite, but worth trying if you haven't had it yet...

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Anthony, titanium MORE than doubled in price in 2005 and hasn't stopped going up since then either! The price increases in typical materials used in tactical knives have been double and triple digits... these are anything but modest. For me materials used to be a smaller % of the costs with labor and overhead being the most, now materials are a significant fator. I caluculate the costs of titanium per square centimeter and work out how many knive I get from a large piece... it's pretty darn depressing. Some knives use well over $50 of titanium alone!

Every few years, titanium become unavailable. The russians control it like the Indians control stag. Even the scrap becomes expensive.
My suggestion is to use heat treated, skeletonized 400 series stainless for your liners. Its stronger anyway

Even better, design a new lock that doesn't require titanium like a button lock or axis style lock.

Anyway, none of my ABS style knives use titanium although some use unobtanium!

In the meanwhile, a large price increase that takes that factor into account is certainly warranted. I think that is an easy explanation for you to give a customer.

 

[Joss]

Reg. titanium, it might make sense for makers to offer a choice of alternate materials. I understand that Ti has an aura that other metals don't have, but I think people would enjoy a choice.

 

[Kohai999]

STeven, Jack Daniels is crap. Try some Woodford Reserve some time. Or, if you like a hard biting sippin' whiskey, try Bookers. It's not my favorite, but worth trying if you haven't had it yet...

Wulf,

Jack Daniel's Single Barrel is actually pretty good, and I was trying to use an analogy that was not too obscure.

I drink Maker's Mark as a preference, though, and have had most of the small batch bourbons. I have a friends who is working his way through the Whiskey Bible, and likes to share.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[RogerP]

Y'all don't get me started on the topic of overpriced whiskey.

Roger
Resident single malt snob.

 

[shaldag]

Y'all don't get me started on the topic of overpriced whiskey.

Roger
Resident single malt snob.

Roger, take a trip down Boston way. The cellar has over 100 malts.
Whisky and knives go togther well. You might even pick up a few bottles here. Much cheaper than Canada.....

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Te

ll me that knife's cost wasn't impacted by rising steel prices...

I wont! I could care less about mosaic! It is the 1084, w-2 and L-6 I care about!

I saw the "bargains" and referenced most of the ones I remembered, but I am sure missed a few. Like Don McIntosh-he had some nice deals too.

The number of "overpriced" pieces in relation to the bargains is what has got me concerned. Along with a smaller Friday crowd waiting at the door of the show at opening time.

It is not unreasonable for a knife collection to go up in value over time. It should certainly beat inflation and based on the price increases should certainly come close to bonds. When collections increase in value, more people continue to collect. It is easier to justify the hobby when it supports itself to a degree.

I have spent a lot of time on auction sites and purveyors websites looking for trends. What I have found is that the best knives, by the best makers at the best prices consistently sell the best.

How do you like that?

 

[Wulf]

Along with a smaller Friday crowd waiting at the door of the show at opening time.

Well that can probably be attributed to the fact that most serious collectors have been conditioned to:
a) call or email makers before the show and try to reserve a piece
b) get ahold of an exhibitor's badge and get in early
c) track down their favorite maker in the pit the night before
d) all of the above

 

[Keith Montgomery]

I'll respond to this. I can tell you that currently,,the "fancier" Tactical style folders are selling for me at a higher rate than the same knife in CF. I don't think it has anything to do with perceived value but more to do simply with a change in whats popular.

I think the fact that what is popular is a totally different thing altogether than perceived value. Even if people are moving to fancier, more expensive tactical folders, they still expect the knife to be worth what they are paying for it. Value still has to be there, even if they are willing to pay more.

Whisky and knives go togther well.

I'm not sure I agree with that. I guess it depends how much whisky, and what you plan on doing with the knives after you have had a few.

 

[Joss]

It is not unreasonable for a knife collection to go up in value over time. It should certainly beat inflation and based on the price increases should certainly come close to bonds.

To the contrary, it is completely unreasonable to expect this. Bonds are paid by productive entities - companies that literally make money over time. Knives, like other collectables and precious metals, do not make anything - they just sit there. The intrisic value of a knife doesn't go up over time - it doesn't get better. In fact, most of them become slightly worse, even if well taken care of.

It is completely misleading to think of collectable as an investment. Of course, it is OK to gamble on how much people will be willing to pay in the future for a given piece, but there's no comparison with bonds.

There are many, many more examples of knives once highly thought after which can no only be sold at a fraction of their original price than the reverse. For what it's worth, this is also true of old Japanese swords: even those in good conditions can be had for much less than they once sold.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

To the contrary, it is completely unreasonable to expect this. Bonds are paid by productive entities - companies that literally make money over time. Knives, like other collectables and precious metals, do not make anything - they just sit there. The intrisic value of a knife doesn't go up over time - it doesn't get better. In fact, most of them become slightly worse, even if well taken care of.

So if a maker raises his price 5-10% a year, why shouldn't a similar knife in my collection see a rise in price?

I am sure if you started buying Fogg's 5 years ago, your collection has increased in value by over 5% a year? Or Fisk's. Or Fitches. Or Newtons. Or Hansons. Or Bradshaws. The list goes on. It is in your best interest as a collector to find those types of makers-that offer good value, market their product well and stand behind it. Those makers become more collected and prices rise.

I would guess the value of my collection to have increased at least 8-10% a year for the last 5 years. That has been proven time and time again for me on ebay and the secondary market. At some point those increases will slow and I will be forced to sell some knives or buy new makers who are on the rise to continue to add value to my collection.

5 years ago you could buy a Fitch bowie for $500. Bradshaw folder for $275.
Fisk bowie for $850. Cashen DAMASCUS hunter for $325. And the list goes on. That beats any bond I know of. Some of those have appreciated 100% in value since then.

I don't expect all custom knives to appreciate. On the contrary--most are worth less the minute they are purchased. But if you buy top quality, from the right makers, the market will support the inevitable increases in price and add similar value to your knives.

I just expect my collection to appreciate. Thats why I ordered knives from Jimmy Chin, Matt Roberts, Jason Knight, Russ Andrews, Adam Derosiers and Jim Crowell in the past year. I am expecting some knives from Fisk within a few weeks that were ordered 5 years ago. I wish I had ordered 20 instead of 2.

It is the makers whose knives DO NOT support the high prices that are the focus of this thread.

PS-Not all bonds are paid by productive entities. Ever bought a government bond!?!

 

[Grapevine]

So if a maker raises his price 5-10% a year, why shouldn't a similar knife in my collection see a rise in price?

But is a Fitch, Cashen, etc. done 5-8 years ago worth as much as one done this year? Barring a few legends, whose earlier knives would have a historical significance to some collectors, isn't it true that generally the more current knives would have the advantages of the maker's refined design, refined craftsmanship, additional learned skills, as well as technological advances in steels (for the tacticals) and general advances in the know how of knifemaking?

I'm sure most of these knives would appreciate, but I do wonder if they appreciate as fast as the demand for that maker. For example, I don't think a Hanson bought 5 years ago is going to appreciate to the point that it'll bring in as much money as a same style Hanson done last month. And I don't think a Matt Roberts knife bought this year will appreciate to the point where it becomes as valuable as one he makes a few years in the future when he gets his JS and wins the Peck award.

 

[Joss]

I am sure if you started buying Fogg's 5 years ago, your collection has increased in value by over 5% a year? Or Fisk's. Or Fitches. Or Newtons. Or Hansons. Or Bradshaws. The list goes on.

You're selecting the winners using 20/20 hindsight. What if instead you had bought Filicietti, or some other maker no one remembers now? Some of those makers could decide to retire, and what do you think would happen to their "brand" overtime?

just expect my collection to appreciate. Thats why I ordered knives from Jimmy Chin, Matt Roberts, Jason Knight, Russ Andrews, Adam Derosiers and Jim Crowell in the past year.

You have no way of knowing in advance the prices those knives will fetch in the future. Many things could happen to the makers, their style, and even your knives. Also, you don't know what might happen to the market. Even excluding catastrophic economic events, you have to factor in the fact that the market hasn't much depth. For example, suppose you needed to pay for a large and exceptional expense and had to sell your entire collection within a week, something that wouldn't cause any problem with bonds. What do you think would happen? You would get pennies on the dollar.

Anthony - I understand what your getting at: find out those makers who have the best potential and offer good value. I agree with that. But it is not the equivalent to a bond.

Once and for all, knives are not an investment.

 

[Kohai999]

Once and for all, knives are not an investment.

By definition, they ARE if you make a profit.

It is not good to get INTO the HOBBY if you NEED or think you NEED to make money at it, unless you are a purveyor, and then it is sort of not a hobby anymore, it becomes a lifestyle.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[Joss]

By definition, they ARE if you make a profit.

Nope - this isn't the definition of an investment (admitedly, it's hard to come up with a consensus on how 'investment' differes from 'speculation', 'savings', and 'full time job'. let's just say it's not *my* definition.)

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

I never said knives were a bond. I never said knives were a good investment.

What I said was that if you are smart and buy the right knives from the right makers, they will go up in value similar to bonds, which are in my opinion, a poor, but stable investment.

You are right-I pick a lemon occasionally, just like any "fund manager", but my collection and your collection and Peter's collection and Keith's collection and many others, wil rise in value unless there is an unexpected crash in the market. Like any tangible "investment".

Knives can be used as a hedge. If you have 50-100K in knives, I am sure the government doesn't know about it. You can sell them tax free in most cases if need be and enjoy them at the same time. You could do the same if you collected stamps, or toy trains or whatever.

Lets be realistic. All of your knives must one day be sold, whether by you, a court or your heirs. Thats a fact of life.

FYI, STeven, knives are not a hobby to me. Or to you either.
Its more of a lifestyle I suppose. I think that advanced collectors are more like patrons of the arts. Without us, magnificent pieces of art would never be produced and the magnificent artists we know and love couldn't support themselves in this craft. But realistically, like art, most knives get sold at some point and if you bought an unknown Picasso's early work you or your heirs did ok in the end. They hard part is picking the Picasso from Pigshit.

But is a Fitch, Cashen, etc. done 5-8 years ago worth as much as one done this year?

Not necessarily , but is sure should be worth a heck of a lot more than when you bought it.

 

[Kohai999]

It is a lifestyle for me, has been for at least 12 years.

I can't think of one facet of knife stuff that I am not involved in, except forging. That is, it is something that I don't personally do right now, but Larry Fuegen has offered to open his shop to me, and I will take him up on that someday soon.

The part that spooks me as an "investor" are the vagaries of the "market".

I have GREAT knives that few people would want, because the maker is relatively unheard of. Phillip Baldwin, Keith "Twig" Davis, Gordon Chard, Dan Maragni, J.W. Townsend. I mean if you are into it knees deep, you may have heard of most of these names, but not be interested in the knives.

I HAVE got to collect knives that make me happy first. That is why I say, piece first, maker second, price third.

The fact that over the years I have made a slight profit, have been able to trade up, and have some showstopping knives as a result makes it worth it, but you are absolutely right, at some point, they are going to have to get sold, either by me, or a trust. I hope that my nephew is into knives when he grows up, I'll leave the best stuff to him, but if he isn't, well, I'll hopefully have a good time selling the knives. I know when I am no longer sufficiently manually dexterous, the folders are going bye bye, and when I can no longer wield the fixed blades with authority either, they will go too. Hopefully my mind will still work.

The Fogg knives are a no brainer in the long run. I suppose Fisks are as well. I'm gonna call Jerry and ask about that Tuxedo fighter. Crowell, Fitch and Massey, I'm not too sure about. This is speaking in terms of 20 years from now. Frankly, Loveless, Michael Walker and Ron Lake are probably about the only sure thing, and if you listen to WWG, Walter Brend, but I would not know, because I won't own his knives.

And this is predicated against complete economic breakdown, but then, HEY, you can actually USE this investment.

You are really right about being patrons, and that is something that all of us are of a CRAFT AND an ART, simultaneously. At this point, I don't have any pigshit, just less desireable Picassos

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[Frosty03]

Murrays prices have reached stupid level, IMO.

If you are talking about Carter, could you please elaborate a bit more on that as I have a couple of his pieces and always considered them a good bang for the buck. Do you have any examples?

I had been thinking about getting another piece of his, but hopefully he's not getting too proud.



A friend will help you move, a good friend will help you move a body.

 

[Raj]

Mr Lombardo,a few posts ago you had mentioned that Russ Andrews is a gem.That his knives are finished like no one else's.What is the special thing about his finish.I have not handled Mr Andrews' knives.Does he put a very fine handrubbed finish taking it to a very high grit level?.Is his fit and finish among the equal of the better makers in the ABS?.
I am really interested and no sarcasm or slight intended in my questions.If it came across in that fashion,my apologies.Please do expound a little bit more about Mr Russ Andrews' knives.Thank you.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Russ Andrews is the best bladesmith few have ever heard of despite a few magazine articles a while back.

He puts an inordinate amount of time in each knife, usually with 1500 grit, hand rubbed finishes, perfect joints and nice shapes and ergonomics.
He makes his own sheaths, which are very, very nice.

He is limited in scope-he is just really getting started forging damascus and has only made a handful of folders, but in the workmanship department, his work is as good as anyones.

A big bowie (11-12" blade), fancy wood handle, temper line, and that awesome finish and excellent sheath is considerably less than $1000.
Problem is you just cant get them!