The Blade Show-A LOT of Overpriced Customs

Regardless of what you think the definition is. An investment is something you put money into with the expectation to make a profit from its evenutal sale.

Those who would argue that "collectibles" are not good invesments do so primarily because they have not done the appropriate amount of research for that particular collectible market.

The key may be to buy it and flip it. Like so many of the "experts" in the real estate market profess today.

The right custom knife, bought for the right price can be sold for a profit, even without the help of 20/20 hindsight.

Case in point, at the last Blade Show would you have bought a Kit Carson Model 4 from Kit? If you were not involved in the tactical folder market or had not done your research you might pass on this knife.

To those reading this thread who are familiar with the tactical folder market, is a Carson Model 4 purchased from Kit a good investment?

How about an Emerson or Onion or Brend? Compare and contrast that to a Mayo, Blackwood, Hossom or Burke. What are the pro's and con's? Who is best to buy and hold? Who are best to buy and flip?

You can do this for every category of knives. How about Jess Horn, Ron Lake, Michael Walker and Steve Johnson.

Compared to Warren Osborne, Joe Kious and WD Pease? Which do you buy, what materials should be used, what model, etc.

How about Tony Bose compared to Eugene Shadley? WHich do you buy and why? What model, what materials, etc.

How about Fisk, Dean, Flounoy and Jimmy Walker? Compared to Fogg, Crowell, Fitch and Cordova?

How about Farr, John White, Mike Ruth and Russ Andrews? Compared to Tomberlin, Craig Camerer, Reggie Barker and Shawn McIntyre?

The answer is painfully obvious. All of these makers have produced and continue to produce "investment" knives. The trick is to know which ones to buy. Then put together a portfolio and spread out the purchases across several makers in several categories.

The nature of custom knives is cyclical and each market will in turn heat up as others cool.

Joss as for using custom knives as an investment. There is a dealer who for the last 10 years has availed the opportunity to anyone who would like to take advantage of it. You will invest $1000 with him and in turn he will guarantee (in writing) that in no more than 12 months you will receive $1,100 . That is a guaranteed 10% annual return on your nvestment.....GUARANTEED.

Ask your bank, broker or any other financial institution that you work with if they will match that guarantee. You know the people and/or organizations that you currently have your investments with. If they wont' match that perhaps you should consider investing in custom knives. ;)

The main reason knife buyers do not view custom knives as investments is that they are not willing to put in the time to gain the expertise it takes to buy knives that are investments.

They prefer to buy a knife because the like it, with little or not thought to how that knife or the maker of that knife will fare in the future. Buying a knfie for investment purposes takes some of the fun out of it. Your hobby becomes "work"

It is the same reason that most people have lousy investments. Most will spend less time working on their investments than they do planning their vacation.

If you can't spot the makers who are providing value for the money, have the best chance of being around long term and having their knives increase in value. It is probably time for you to rethink buying custom knives. Don't give poor makers false hope and turn your back on quality makers because they are not the "flavor" of the month.

Take out any custom knife you have and look at it for 3 seconds. If you can't tell if the maker is left handed or right handed you are probably wasting your money.

It is amazing the things you can learn at a 60 minute seminar at the Blade Show.

WWG
 
Anthony,

FWIW, several of my spies are telling me that the subject matter of this thread is generating some serious sturm und drang amongst quite a few established ABS makers. Which is probably a very good thing in the long run.

There are lots of highly skilled new players entering the forged game, at the moment and the veterans are either going to have to step up their play to remain competitive, or lose their established positions. An MS stamp from the ABS does not free anyone from the forces of the market place. Unless each individual maker continues to push himself and improve his product, he runs the risk of becoming the next Plymouth or Oldsmobile.

I hear a fair amount of moaning by the established makers about new guys not paying their "dues", by having been in the business for only a few years. This is a very quaint notion. I suppose that ideally every starter in the NFL Pro-Bowl should be a seasoned ten year veteran, but that is not reality. The question in football is what can YOU produce on the field right now? What is on your table today?

The collector base is becoming much more sophisticated and demanding, which will result in higher quality and design standards. The serious buyers/collectors are talking to each other almost on a daily basis and exchanging frank opinions about different makers current work and prices. The learning curve has taken off, because of public venues such as this forum. Anyone willing to invest the time and work the search engine can harvest enormous amounts of useful information to improve their knowledge.

It is an exciting time to be a collector. There were several newly minted Journeymen Smiths at Blade whose work (IMHO) already exceeds the MS level of workmanship from 20 years ago. We have a lot to look forward to!

P
 
sturm und drang
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That is Storm and Stress for those living in Arkansas. :)

Peter, you have hit the nail squarely on the head. Isn't it amazing what kind of clarity you get after you have spent 50Kand up on custom bowie knives that live in a steel box in your basement :)?

Sometimes I think some makers forget what going to a knife show is for.
It isn't just to hang out in the pit and chat with your buddies, it is about selling knives. If your knives aren't selling you should be evaluating your business, style, pricing or quality and ask your customers, present and future what you could be doing better to get their hard earned $$$'s. Funny thing is as a buyer, I rarely hear a maker ask that question.

I am in high-value sales. A customer can spend several MILLION dollars a year with my company. We ask these customers constantly what we can do better to get more of their business and they always tell us!

Underpriced makers make very little impact on the market as they don't tend to stick around very long. I have seen some come and go and by the time they raise their prices, it is usually too late as they have cut corners to try and make a profit and people get disappointed and stopped buying their knives.

If any maker who reads this thread is offended in any way or has any other input and they want to email me privately at aplombardo@sc.rr.com, I will certainly reply.
 
Anthony Lombardo said:
But is a Fitch, Cashen, etc. done 5-8 years ago worth as much as one done this year?
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Not necessarily , but is sure should be worth a heck of a lot more than when you bought it.
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Yes, but the point is it wouldn't be worth as much as a new knife from the maker, which addressed your earlier contention:
So if a maker raises his price 5-10% a year, why shouldn't a similar knife in my collection see a rise in price?
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His raise in price could also be a result of his continued growth in skill and artistry, not just materials and expenses costs. In other words it could be very reasonable, if not expected, that a great maker's new prices would rise faster than is comfortable for his past customers who remember the old days when they got his early knives at what is now considered a bargain.

I'm not trying to be contentious btw. Just pointing out that I don't think it's fair to expect a maker's prices to only rise in step with inflation of materials or in step with how his earlier (and likely inferior) work does in the aftermarket.
 
I'm not trying to be contentious btw
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Are you sure?

I don't think it's fair to expect a maker's prices to only rise in step with inflation of materials or in step with how his earlier (and likely inferior) work does in the aftermarket.
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No one has ever suggested that. A maker's price can rise for a variety of reasons including increases in materials, overhead, awards won, "increased skill" as you put it, or illness. All of things can affect a makers list price.

You know what the most important variable is? I will give you a guess...
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.
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DEMAND!


A maker who is 5 years behind can charge whatever he likes. I don't know too many of those. Only one actually. It took him about 15 years of providing high value knives to repeat customers..
 
Anthony,

In order to be a great Bladesmith, you need to be a superb artist (the design has to be beautiful and functional), an excellent craftsman (superb design execution), honest (his word matters and he will stand behind his product) and great salesman (someone who actually pays attention to what the customer wants to buy).

It is no wonder that these guys are few and far between.

P
 
Once or twice ;)

I did forget one other element. You actually have to make and deliver the final product on a consistent basis. You can't just TALK about doing it.
 
ptgdvc said:
Anthony,

In order to be a great Bladesmith, you need to be a superb artist (the design has to be beautiful and functional), an excellent craftsman (superb design execution), honest (his word matters and he will stand behind his product) and great salesman (someone who actually pays attention to what the customer wants to buy).

It is no wonder that these guys are few and far between.
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To be a great bladesmith you need talent, imagination and creativity, and you need to be an excellent craftsman. You don't need to be honest, and you don't need to be a great salesman. Those things are required if you want to be successful at making bladesmithing your life's work. I personally don't know any dishonest great bladesmiths, but I can tell you I know lots of them that are terrible salespeople.

Another thing I have noticed is that many makers have a terrible time figuring out what they should charge for their knives. This is not just a problem with the new makers, but some some established and very established makers as well. However, the newer makers suffer from this problem the most. I think this is part of the reason that we are seeing new makers that are charging too much for their knives. It is also the reason that they will often charge way too little.

As for a new maker having to pay his/her dues, I see that as being quite appropriate. Makers have to get their name out there, even if they come on to the market with a superior product. They have to get their knives into the hands of the people that will tell everyone how good they are. To do this, it is my opinion that they need to very judicious in how they price their knives. This is not to say that I think they should greatly underprice their knives, but that they should not think that they can enter the market with pricing that is the same as the established makers. If I see a new maker with very nice knives but with pricing that is up there with Bailey Bradshaw, Russ Andrews or Roger Massey, it is very unlikely that I will purchase one of this makers knives. If however the pricing is attractive, then I will be much more likely to take a chance.
 
ptgdvc said:
. You actually have to make and deliver the final product on a consistent basis. You can't just TALK about doing it.
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Now THERE'S a point that is worth writing down.

Roger
 
Ok, so the "investment" portion of the thread has been put to bed.

Keith and others, you are correct pricing is one of the most difficult issues for makers. Why is that? Materials (to include shipping costs) + Shop time (use of the machines, electricity, etc.) + the makers salary. That is a base forumla, on top of that you have to figure out other expenses (Internet costs, photography costs, show costs, advertising (which would include dealer discounts), etc.

On the ABS side of the house, there seems to be price ranges developing for each level and type of knife.

A mistake that most new makers make is going to another maker and asking them what the knife should sell for. First, most makers don't really know what their position is in any market they participate in. Consequently, they have no idea what position the new maker has in that market. As such that maker cannot give useable advice to their fellow maker.

Second, few if any makers buy knives. So they have very little knowlege of pricing compared to collectors and dealers. The exception to this is Jerry Fisk. Jerry will give the maker an honest assessment of their work and discuss pricing structure with them now and for the future.

Last, makers forget that other makers are their competitors (in the big market sense, however it is a literal sense). I don't know if I have ever heard from a newer maker "So and so maker told me I should hold my price or maybe even lower it a little". Almost without exception you will hear "So and so maker told me my knives were too inexpensive or that I should hold my price".

For you new and newer makers reading this. Raise your prices when all you take home from a knife show is your table cover and some orders.
 
Keith Montgomery said:
To be a great bladesmith you need talent, imagination and creativity, and you need to be an excellent craftsman. You don't need to be honest, and you don't need to be a great salesman. Those things are required if you want to be successful at making bladesmithing your life's work. I personally don't know any dishonest great bladesmiths, but I can tell you I know lots of them that are terrible salespeople.
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Keith,

You points are well taken. Perhaps instead of saying great bladesmiths, I should have said super star bladesmiths need all five elements.

While everyone is carefully avoiding naming names, I would say that Steve Filicietti is an excellent example of great talent and craftsmanship undone by the honesty issue.

Jerry Fisk sets himself apart from many other topflight Master Smiths because of his marketing skills and salesmanship. There isn't much doubt that he is the current heavy weight champion, because he has combined ALL the elements necessary for a great bladesmith, correction, a super star.

Best,

P
There plenty of makers
 
Way early on I had a slight misunderstanding of this thread's intention. That's long since been replaced with top-grade dialog and information from the members here. Thanks. Good stuff.

Coop
 
Just reading this once over lightly, one might get the feeling that almost the entire knifemaking community (excluding perhaps a dozen or so makers named here) is being tarred and feathered for being careless, lazy, indifferent, only wanting to "just to hang out in the pit and chat with your buddies", and possible being of poor character and questionable integrity.

Knifemakers on average paid over $1000 to be at the Blade Show, but according to some posts here, they really didn't much care if they brought the quality of knives necessary to help them recoup their costs, let alone pay for the time and materials that went into the knives they made.

One of the easiest things you can do in this world is to criticize a craftsman, because most of what he creates is subject to issues of personal taste and interests. I'm not crazy about Picasso, but some people like him. His fit and finish looks like crap to me. It's been noted that the ABS Moran sold this year for over $37,000. No question, that was a pretty fine looking knife by anyone's measure. I don't know if anyone here has seen a knife that Moran fashioned 20 years ago. His hallmark was definitely not his fit and finish; it was his style and originality. It was certainly hard to look at one back then and see $37,000. I'm definitely not criticizing Bill's work here, he was one of the major contributors to this industry and one of the primary reasons there is a Blade show (and this forum for that matter). He and Loveless were the standard bearers that began the modern evolution of this craft.

But others who displayed at the Blade Show this year are taking the craft to newer levels, and some whose work may be being critcized here are those burgeoning knifemakers who will go on to lead us into the next evolutionary step. Does quality wax and wane? Sure. It's been a challenging year for many knifemakers. Many I spoke with expressed frustration with exploding costs of doing business and reduced sales due to lower disposable income in the market. Traffic at Blade was way off compared to prior years. A significant percentage of makers there didn't meet expenses. Some pretty good ones didn't sell a single knife, like the well-known maker next to me who had two of the most magnificent and finely crafted knives I've ever seen that he took home with him after the show. He'll sell them, probably not to investors, but to those who simply appreciate the art and craft of the knife and are just pleased to have them in their possession.

I'm a pretty fair judge of quality and have a great many friends in the knife community whose tables I visited, and I didn't see the quality issues described in this thread. There may have been a maker or two who for reasons you'll never know wasn't able to field his normal quality, but I'd hardly apply that to a significant percentage of the makers displaying there. I did speak with a number of makers who were having trouble making ends meet, and that saddens me because their loss to this community would be tragic, and things like this thread aren't helping them much. I spoke with a number who because of increased costs and sagging sales were doing the Blade Show but had to cancel out of the Guild show in Florida next month. Why would they cancel out of a show where they might sell more knives? Perhaps some of those who have been critical of knifemakers in this thread should ponder this question.

I had a good show. I took 13 knives, sold 11 and gave two to disabled vets who left pieces of themselves in the Sandbox, a thanks from my family. That was as good a show as I could hope for. Were my knives of a quality as in previous shows? I think so, but if they weren't I doubt anyone here could have spotted the additional flaws, comparing this year with last. Last year's knives had flaws as did my knives in all previous years. Those at my first couple Blade shows truly sucked.

All knives are flawed. ALL KNIVES ARE FLAWED. As you become better at making knives and more familiar with knives as a collector you begin to notice ever smaller flaws. At what point do you accept the flaws and buy the knife anyway? It's your call; nobody forces you to buy a knife. At what point does a maker decide the flaws, which are in all his knives, rise to the level of significance that he can take 10-20-50 hours of work, and $10 - $50 - $100 - $500 worth of materials he may have in a knife and throw it in the trash? How badly does he need a paycheck?

How many of you didn't go to Blade because you couldn't afford to? How many who went to Blade left behind knives they would have liked to own? How badly do you need your next paychack? Ever have an off week or month, or maybe a bad year? Did you get paid anyway? Did someone go on an internet forum and tell the world you did crap work last week? Did others, who have never seen your work agree with them?

Let's cut each other a little slack. Many of you are not as knowledgeable about knives as you think you are. Most of us are not as good at crafting knives as we'd like to be. We are both more likely to improve our skills and knowledge if we maintain a constructive dialog. On balance, I don't think this one is.

My $0.02

Oh yeah. many/most knifemakers like "just to hang out in the pit and chat with your buddies" because we only see them once a year and like to get reacquainted, find out how each is doing, exchange a few jokes and generally do those things that friends usually do at least once a year. I doubt that will change regardless of what's posted here...
 
WoodWorkGhost said:
Keith and others, you are correct pricing is one of the most difficult issues for makers. Why is that?
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Because beyond questions of cost (materials / labour / edvertising and such) makers need to engage in a very frank assessment of the comparative quality of their work and their relative position in the market in order to effectively price their work. As Polonius said to Laertes, "This above all - to thine own self be true." Sound advice more easily given than taken.

And then there is the whole informational component - how can you appreciate your position in the market if you don't very actively look around (shows, hammer-ins, dealers, secondary market, and yes, internet discussion forums) to determine the difference betwene where you are and where you think you are? Not easy. Takes work.

Roger

(PS - Hamlet, 1:3 for the non-nerds)
 
Jerry Hossom said:
Just reading this once over lightly, one might get the feeling that almost the entire knifemaking community (excluding perhaps a dozen or so makers named here) is being tarred and feathered for being careless, lazy, indifferent, only wanting to "just to hang out in the pit and chat with your buddies", and possible being of poor character and questionable integrity....
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That's why I try to avoid snap judgments. They tend to be wrong.

Jerry Hossom said:
Did someone go on an internet forum and tell the world you did crap work last week? Did others, who have never seen your work agree with them?
...
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This has been a looooog thread. I have been following it pretty closely, but readily admit I may have missed a post or three. If someone in this thread has been proclaiming a maker's work to be crap, then I missed it.

Roger
 
Sorry if this post has you feeling a little butt-hurt.

Defensiveness, excuses, and sweeping the dirt under the rug is what I am basically reading in your post here. Remember, you stopped taking orders, and did not deliver on some that had been ordered, because you didn't want to.

Slack is the last thing called for here. Most of us don't get slack if we don't perform as expected at WORK, being fired is what happens. Then we have no job. Having people not buy your work, or not be able to make ends meet because you are a sucky maker or a sucky businessman is what happens in the knife world.

It is not pretty, but it is reality. As far as being a loss to the knife community, there is a LONG overdue loss by attrition coming. There a lot of people making knives that should not be(at least "professionally"), and the market is about getting ready to prove that. It will be painful, messy, and full of anguish, but it is also absolutely necessary.

Maybe we collectors may not know as much about knives as we think we do, but we are still the ones buying the danged things, so I say, right now, we know as much as we need to, and are still learning more towards the next purchase.

BTW, I have nothing against you personally, and while you may know quite a bit about making knives, from what I have seen, you don't know a whole lot about collecting them.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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