The knife market bubble needs to happen

[cbrstar]

The gasoline analogy wasn't very effective. I remember 1971 and I don't remember 16 cent gas then as a common thing; 29 cent gas yes. But it depends on what state you're in relative to state fuel taxes. Right now in East Tennessee we have $1.75-$1.80 gas commonly. Go to Pennsylvania where I grew up and it is $2.39 or something like that. I feel sure CA is higher.

There is no bubble that is going to burst with knife manufacturers. There is no legislation pending or likely that will restrict knives like what happened with guns after Sandy Hook. Things will just keep bumping along and people will pay the asking prices without much thought simply because that is THE price if they want a certain knife. Few people are going to start carrying Ozark Trail (OT) knives because of a likely 2019 price increase on the major brands. If there is no price increase on OT stuff, you can thank Walmart and their hold on their manufacturers and suppliers. I suspect we'll see Rough Rider knives bump up a buck or so each and that started happening with their new packaging this year. There is a knife to fit every budget if you want a knife.

Being a Canadian with the crappy legislation that came out this year, actually motivated me to hurry up and buy some of my dream knives before it's too late.

 

[katanas]

My original post was referring to customer numbers ONLY (therefore sustaining-or not- the market), not the willingness of those interested to pay the price. Times have changed and the carrying and use of knives is not as ubiquitous as it was years ago. Certainly there are many in the 30 (a random number I chose) and under generation who enjoy, collect and use/carry knives, however, I don't believe it is as acceptable in much of the USA as it used to be and I merely question whether the large number of knife sales (particularly costly ones) will continue. Just my .02

 

[BD_01]

Yo Mama
Let me ask you this:
At what price for gasoline do you think the majority of people will say "enough is enough! I won't pay that!" and give up their automobile?

I live in a place where certain political factions believe in this ideology. It is one of the reasons I am relocationg. I’ll stop there out of respect to y’all & GKD etiquette.

In similar threads dating back to my joining BFC (relatively recent compared to you old farts ), I’ve stated that each years’ price increases have vastly outpaced my pay raises. I’m certainly not alone.

2018 saw my knife purchases decrease by about 50%. I expect my prchases to decrease by the same percentage in 2019; probably only 3-4 knives total.

The question of sustainability is a good one. It will be interesting to see what develops in the next decade. In the end, I hope my favorite US manufacturers (large and small) stay relevant and in the game. I hope my kids can buy one of their products, from time to time.

I’ve enjoyed reading everyone’s comments in this thread.

While I'm not sure that's good comparison, I will say that a whole lot of the under-30 crowd are giving up cars.

I can second your observations. Being cost prohibitive (or perhaps cost unfavorable) is part of the reason. It’s a new and changing world...and I feel old.

 

[marchone]

Again, I still think the super steels are great and I'm not advocating their demise, I just think there's a lot of big manufacturers who aren't heat treating them to the point of really seeing the huge benefit and I think a lot of buyers truly don't know the difference. But in a way, the community sort of feeds on itself and the super steels are letter designations are what is promoted and admired.

This is fodder for a new topic. Couple things here. Most people know only the difference between a high carbon steel and stainless. Ease of sharpening makes it so. Carbon also rusts. Super steels are not in everyone's common vocabulary. More frustrating yet is the learning curve needed to sharpen said super steels. Asked for preferences between Elmax, M390, S30V, and most will be greeted with blank stares. And justly so. The differences aren't noticeable in daily use. Begin talking about comparative heat treats and people become even less interested.

 

[Eli Chaps]

This is fodder for a new topic. Couple things here. Most people know only the difference between a high carbon steel and stainless. Ease of sharpening makes it so. Carbon also rusts. Super steels are not in everyone's common vocabulary. More frustrating yet is the learning curve needed to sharpen said super steels. Asked for preferences between Elmax, M390, S30V, and most will be greeted with blank stares. And justly so. The differences aren't noticeable in daily use. Begin talking about comparative heat treats and people become even less interested.

I was actually meaning people within the knife enthusiast community, not the public at large. I think a lot of the people who espouse the virtues of super steels, aren't actually the most out of those steels and it's more the letters and the notion of the prestige they bring or the notion of being in the know than the actual benefits of the steel. Again, I don't want to go down a road of bashing those folks or trying to come off as more enlightened.

The average knife user? No, they could care less about any of the things that we enthusiasts care about. They care about low price and sometimes "neat" looks. It works for them.

Sorry if I misunderstood your post there though.

 

[bravodelta]

In my experience the under-30 crowd has been the most demanding market to serve mostly because they're looking to squeeze every last bit they can from their dollar to get the best value possible. They're willing to save up and drop big bills if they have to to get the most appropriate match for their needs, but want to know all of the specs, get personal impressions from folks regarding prospective models, ask experts, look into the reputation of the manufacturer, and once they settle on a model that best meets their needs, they'll shop around for the best place to get it. Usually with a bias in favor of independent shops as long as the difference in price from other, bigger vendors isn't extreme. They usually read up ahead of time before making a purchase, and are shrewd buyers. Sometimes they can get hung up on details that aren't especially important in practice, but on the whole they view the purchase like it's an investment. These are all generalities, but it's been my overall experience.

^^^^^^ Yes yes yes and yes, plus the following. I see many belonging to this demographic absolutely agonize to the point of analysis paralysis over items that will remain a safe queens, go un-used. THEN come the reviews and feedback of their never used item and ultimately their return or forum sale. Without drawing over reaching generalizations or stereotypes, this is what I have observed increasing over the past several years while owning a specialty manufacturing/wholesale/retail business conducting well over 10,000 transactions every year. Part of this I feel is related to the internet retail experience versus the in-person buying experience. Old timers don’t mind paying more $$$$ for an item the can touch hold and leave the store with.

 

[unwisefool]

I think there are a lot of knives in the $100-$300 range that are so much more advanced from a technical standpoint than what we could buy 15 or 20 years ago. So yes prices go up but newer technology and materials trickle down.

You want to talk about inflation? Look what's happening to the scotch and whiskey market. It's crazy how much prices have gone up.

 

[Yo Mama]

Well.. I quit buying once 60.00 knives became 100.00 plus.. Set my limit at 100.00.. They can do what they want as long as people keep buying.. In my younger days when I had a pocket full of disposal money increases were no big deal.. Now in my 60s and retired it is a BIG deal.. Still aint figured what a 150.00 knife does better than a 60.00 knife.. Been in the knife game for 45yrs plus and don't get it??!!
John

Otfs are the exception for me. A good otf ain't cheap but for a good reason. Like you my limit went up over time but it's hard looking at anything up from that 150 mark in manual

Yo Mama
Let me ask you this:
At what price for gasoline do you think the majority of people will say "enough is enough! I won't pay that!" and give up their automobile?

When I started driving in 1971, a gallon of regular (leaded) gas cost between 15 point 9 and 18 point 9 CENTS, depending on if there was a "gas war" taking place.
A new full size family sedan cost under $7,000. (In 1973 you could get a new base level Camaro for under $4,000)
What a new car cost back then is not even a decent down payment for a car today.

Have the majority of people given up their cars after such tremendous increases in costs?
Nope. A small minority have (myself included), but the vast majority willingly pay up to $4.00 and more for a gallon of gas, and what a house used to cost for their vehicle.

I remember when you could get a good Made in USA name brand knife for as little as $2.00.
People willingly spend 50x that and more for a knife today.

In answer to your question: No. History shows that the "bubble" (if it exists) will not burst.

A pretty different comparison but I would say that travel is a necessity, a fancy new knife is not.

 

[Yo Mama]

Come to think about it the firearms market finally had their bubble when about 2 years ago people were no longer scared. I can't believe the price of guns right now this is the time to buy anything you want because I don't think you'll see it that cheap ever again.

 

[Tommy-Chi]

To me that is funny.

I get wearing a Rolex or Patek watch or driving a Porsche, but who beyond these boards or on Instagram really cares what knife you carry? I have never once had anyone impressed with a knife I was carrying beyond saying it was cool looking.

Agree 100%. You are more likely to have people gawk at your wristwatch, shoes, car or house than your knife.

Nonetheless, I buy knives for myself. The only other people to ever see my knives are my family, primarily my brother who loves them but is too cheap to buy them...but I understand his MO, he likes guns and there is no way he is going to spend $500 for a knife when that is a big chunk of a new gun.

 

[Deinos]

Come to think about it the firearms market finally had their bubble when about 2 years ago people were no longer scared. I can't believe the price of guns right now this is the time to buy anything you want because I don't think you'll see it that cheap ever again.

Agree. Firearms manufacturers ramped up production to meet that crazy, fear driven demand and got bit on the *** when that fear went away. Tons of guns and far fewer buyers. Prices and additional rebates/incentives the last couple years have been nuts to say the least. 2019 will be the time to buy if you haven't taken advantage, as the beginning of 2020 is going to stoke that panic again as the presidency and additional congressional seats come up...

 

[afishhunter]

pretty different comparison but I would say that travel is a necessity, a fancy new knife is not.

Travel can be (and is) accomplished by bus, train, aircraft, boat/ship, bicycling, walking/hiking (there are people riding their bikes and walking/hiking cross country and around the world).
An automobile is not the only means of transportation, or even personal transportation.

Admittedly though, perhaps the gasoline anology was an error on my part.
Perhaps the bread anology would have been better?
When I was a lad, a loaf of Wonderbread was around 25 cents. (Generic and house brand breads had not been invented yet.)
Today, a loaf of bread can cost $4.00 or more.
How many stopped buying bread at the grocer's and regularly bake their own?
Not the majority.

 

[sharp_edge]

The gasoline analogy wasn't very effective. I remember 1971 and I don't remember 16 cent gas then as a common thing; 29 cent gas yes. But it depends on what state you're in relative to state fuel taxes. Right now in East Tennessee we have $1.75-$1.80 gas commonly. Go to Pennsylvania where I grew up and it is $2.39 or something like that. I feel sure CA is higher..

This^^

I do not have that long a memory but around y2k the gas price dropped to below $1 per gallon. Have we ever seen knife prices fluctuate like that or as a matter of fact, ever any price dropping of regular production knives?

 

[katanas]

But, afishhunter, how many have decided to go with the generic store brand for $1.50 and pass on the new "organic/non-Glucan" stuff?

 

[cbrstar]

People don't realize that when you are in business sometimes you have to slow the demand by increasing prices.
Personally before I had a bad motorcycle accident, I had a small watch repair shop. I started off charging what I thought was fair for an hours work. Well word got out about the quality of my work and soon I was overrun by customers. I was working 12 hours a day 7 days a week and barely keeping up. I had one guy drop off 30 watches at a time.
It got to the point where I needed to hire someone. But the problem was there was no one else like me. What I needed to do was increase the prices for my work. I doubled the prices 3x in a single year. I found that I still had enough work to keep busy and I still made enough money to pay rent. The quality of my life increased and I was earning more.

Tl;Dr
With a Knife manufacturer I think they are often faced with the same problem. When the demand is way too high to meet your production you are faced with three options.
1) Go into debt buy more tooling hire more employee's. But with the uncertainty of the market who want's to do that? You risk over expanding during a market crash which could wipe out your business.
2) Outsource but that may effect how people view your image especially if the other company makes it better then you.
3) Increase prices and slow down the demand to manageable levels.

All the companies that are jacking their prices just happen to be the most popular ones.

 

[Reitwagen]

Part of what drives high end collecting of knives or anything else is exclusivity and elitism . A chance to exercise monetary muscle and display wealth .

So , for some , ridiculously high prices are actually desirable !

Exactly.

 

[NMpops]

I'm 65 and I've had a knife in my pocket since age 8 and that includes while in school. However, until my mid-40's I never owned more than 8-10 knives at a time. In the mid-90's I inherited a few Schrade pocket knives from an uncle and that started the ball rolling. Mostly it was because with raising 3 kids I just didn't have a lot of disposable income to spend on stuff I don't need, and I certainly don't need the 100+ knives I currently have. I now buy only knives I will actually use and do my best to get my grandsons interested. Based on my own experience I still think there is hope for the younger generations to find an interest in pocket knives.

Also, I live in the Southwest where public transportation is severely lacking; I don't see anyone giving up their cars.

 

[WValtakis]

You want to talk about inflation? Look what's happening to the scotch and whiskey market. It's crazy how much prices have gone up.

My favorite (Glenmorangie Port wood finish) used to be $35 at Costco...they renamed it to the Quinta Ruban and now it's $65 Just had to commiserate...back to knives now.

~Chip

 

[Ryanol]

I firmly think in the near term (4-8rs) we see the loss or at least one major knife manufacturer. The customers embrace of tactical knives in combination with high end materials like carbon fiber and titanium handles with lots of intensive machining makes it almost impossible to compete. Combine that with the fact that folks were willing to pay almost as much for knives from new manufacturer's with little to no known customer service track record puts them in a real tough spot.

Idk I've never utilized the lifesharp type warranty from Reate or We knives but I imagine it's a little bit tougher to coordinate the return trip sending in the knife for service. (When I've brought this up in the past people have justified away the service stating they'll just fix it or sharpen it themselves) that tells me they undervalue what lifesharp provides and what I worry about mostly is that the us manufacturer's will stop offering a service with little perceived value.

 

[Yo Mama]

But, afishhunter, how many have decided to go with the generic store brand for $1.50 and pass on the new "organic/non-Glucan" stuff?

Or make their own