Who Will Die First when SHTF

[Havokk]

There are many ways the S could HTF but I think they all have one thing in common: in the first hours/days/weeks, many people will die, including people who are well-prepared.
In the medium term, the people who have stockpiled food and equipment and knowledge will have a greater chance to survive (but not guaranteed).
In the long term (years to decades), I don't think a "person" will survive at all. Survival will require a community of "people" with a good mixture of skills (with the skill of "getting along with others" being very, very important). Bandits may survive a couple of years by preying on others but that is not something that can survive a decade or more - that requires proper civilisation.

For a very bleak view of this, check out the British movie "Threads".

B

 

[JCavSD]

There are many ways the S could HTF but I think they all have one thing in common: in the first hours/days/weeks, many people will die, including people who are well-prepared.
In the medium term, the people who have stockpiled food and equipment and knowledge will have a greater chance to survive (but not guaranteed).
In the long term (years to decades), I don't think a "person" will survive at all. Survival will require a community of "people" with a good mixture of skills (with the skill of "getting along with others" being very, very important). Bandits may survive a couple of years by preying on others but that is not something that can survive a decade or more - that requires proper civilisation.
B

Well said. And I want to add that I think those who are aware of the community dynamic from the onset will stand a much better chance in the long run.

 

[Zombie Zeke]

Who will die first?

The good people, the givers, will die first. The salt of the earth. They will be murdered and their substance squandered by the selfish takers.

With a bad economy, lots of people expect to sit on unemployment for YEARS. If that goes away in some bad crash, the selfish takers will WAY outnumber the givers. And they'll be hungry. For what you've got.

It must be a California thing what with the publicly stated, 12% Unemployment, harsh penalties for believing in the 2nd Amendment and an amazingly huge and uncounted population of undocumented folks and societal dropouts. Good for you, for putting it succinctly in a way I could only hint at. :thumbup:

An Aussie once asked me how bad it is now in the States, I told him I can't speak to what's going on in other States but in mine, it's already at the point where planning is moving into acting for the coming tidal wave of bad intentions.

For those of you that imagine what I write is fiction, good bless and keep the faith, I don't want to be a loony or a pariah. Down the street from me 11 of 15 houses are vacant, one is a lab now, most have squatters, some have gang parties in the desert. Feral dogs run wild in packs it really is bad, I don't write these things to look cool, I write them to help people understand that the bad new times are coming.

 

[Gadgetaholic]

The lady in the video is against looting, but, in this type of scenario, I don't consider it looting, I consider it supply requisition. I'm not taking flat panels, I'm getting antibiotics, bandages, ammo, and the other stuff that my group will need.

Just a thought: How about keeping a stock of ammo & bandages & antibiotics on hand so that you have them if you need them? I don't like the idea of trying to loot ammo and getting killed by the store owner who is trying to protect what he has - can't you just buy plenty of ammo ahead of time?

And another thing, is the ability to make something out of nothing and to be a divergent thinker, and thinking outside the box, preplanning and stuff like that. Having this mindset can help you out even if you arent the best trained or in the best shape, a little common sense goes a long way.

I think this is true. In a crappy situation you are best served by keeping eyes & ears open and brain engaged. It doesn't hurt to have a stock of food and water in the short term, but in the long term it is your brain that will save you (or not). When TSHTF you should try to make the best decisions you can to maximise your chances of surviving whatever the disaster is.

 

[reconranger]

Who will die first?

The good people, the givers, will die first. The salt of the earth. They will be murdered and their substance squandered by the selfish takers.

My family and I are proud to be "good people"....we make a great fireteam as well!

A couple things to think about: The average person really doesn't get outdoors much (camping, hiking, etc.), so I don't think they are going to head to the hills and try to survive there...it just isn't their element. I have natural resources nearby home (water!) that most folks are completely oblivious to, because they haven't gotten out and explored. Me, I am out exploring every day whether on foot or the dirt bike, so I know the backroads and how to get around away from the centers of population. I just don't see that there will be hoards of greenhorn city folk heading for the "hills" thinking they will find anything there....

Don't discount the advantage of having a nice comfy RV to "survive" in, either!

 

[Old CW4]

Who will die first? The unlucky!
Who will survive? Those with the will to do so regardless of equipment.

 

[Moosez45]

Well said. And I want to add that I think those who are aware of the community dynamic from the onset will stand a much better chance in the long run.

I agree whole heartedly, a community dynamic is must, no man must stand alone. But those around me I can trust and depend on are the ones I want. People with a work ethic, knowledge, ability, and experience. I don't want slackers, leeches, and know it all, know nothings.

Most of my best friends are former military soldiers, medics, pilots and comm techs. They have friends and family that carry other skills. The other thing, they are all good people who work hard, aren't sheep, and love the outdoors. Kinda funny how we surround ourselves by like minded people. Community is a must, no one will make on their own, unless they are lucky or blessed.

Just a thought: How about keeping a stock of ammo & bandages & antibiotics on hand so that you have them if you need them? I don't like the idea of trying to loot ammo and getting killed by the store owner who is trying to protect what he has - can't you just buy plenty of ammo ahead of time?

I have a good reserve of things I feel I will need, but not enough for 20-30 people. I got enough for 4, for a short time. I don't have a bunker nor the funds to fill one if I did. Stockpiling takes time and money, both I have been short on for many years.

Scavenging the resources we will need, when we need them is paramount. Medicines go bad over time, food spoils. Time can make a life saving medicine toxic to the person using them. I'm not going to go kicking in doors and robbing people, unless I have not other choice. Desperate people will do things they wouldn't normally do. I'm planning ahead, hoping it won't come to that. Others are doing the same.

Moose

 

[Smash05]

It must be a California thing what with the publicly stated, 12% Unemployment, harsh penalties for believing in the 2nd Amendment and an amazingly huge and uncounted population of undocumented folks and societal dropouts. Good for you, for putting it succinctly in a way I could only hint at. :thumbup:

An Aussie once asked me how bad it is now in the States, I told him I can't speak to what's going on in other States but in mine, it's already at the point where planning is moving into acting for the coming tidal wave of bad intentions.

For those of you that imagine what I write is fiction, good bless and keep the faith, I don't want to be a loony or a pariah. Down the street from me 11 of 15 houses are vacant, one is a lab now, most have squatters, some have gang parties in the desert. Feral dogs run wild in packs it really is bad, I don't write these things to look cool, I write them to help people understand that the bad new times are coming.

I have the solution for you, some flash bangs and CS grenades. Clear those houses out When you deal with what you see everyday, I can understand your outlook.

 

[ttoney83]

My family and I are proud to be "good people"....we make a great fireteam as well!

A couple things to think about: The average person really doesn't get outdoors much (camping, hiking, etc.), so I don't think they are going to head to the hills and try to survive there...it just isn't their element. I have natural resources nearby home (water!) that most folks are completely oblivious to, because they haven't gotten out and explored. Me, I am out exploring every day whether on foot or the dirt bike, so I know the backroads and how to get around away from the centers of population. I just don't see that there will be hoards of greenhorn city folk heading for the "hills" thinking they will find anything there....

Don't discount the advantage of having a nice comfy RV to "survive" in, either!

I agree. I'm out around my place almost every day. I know where all the springs are in the 300 plus acres that surround me. My place is rich with deer and other wildlife. It's a mountainous area so the soil isn't relly deep but it will grow crops just fine. Most of my friends and family will be trying to get to my place. I just have to get there too. Since I work in the Washington D.C. area, I figure I'm pretty well screwed anyway. If I make it back home I'll consider myself blessed or lucky or both. I do have appropriate NBC gear in my vehicle kit though.

 

[Stainz]

You want to see this played out on the 'tube? Watch the hundreds of thousands of Haitian quake survivors still living in tent cities as the current hurricane bears down on them in the next day or so. It's sad - but true. Many will die due to lacking forethought - poorly considered plans - and the gluttony of their fellow Haitians. It's a fact of life. Sure, the strong should survive - but those with a modicum of a plan definitely will.

Have a plan... organize some supplies.

Stainz

 

[akennedy73]

For those of you that imagine what I write is fiction, good bless and keep the faith, I don't want to be a loony or a pariah. Down the street from me 11 of 15 houses are vacant, one is a lab now, most have squatters, some have gang parties in the desert. Feral dogs run wild in packs it really is bad, I don't write these things to look cool, I write them to help people understand that the bad new times are coming.

from what you're saying, they're already here. brother i hope you got a plan in the not too distant future for relocating to a more mellow neighborhood. an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. there's no reason to wait for civil disorder to relocate. i'm sure you have reasons for being where you are and it's probably not easy to just pickup and move - but if you're reading the writing on the wall, you're going to have to sometime anyway. better to move when things are still functioning (like ATM machines, gas pumps, etc) than to move with everything falling apart.

 

[crossada]

i always thought this movie was the most likely SHTF situation. When you think how much people rely on gas and if there was no more of it i could see bad things happening. Everything in modern society relies on fuel whether it be transportation to food production.
[youtube]wmt74I501Wc[/youtube]

 

[lmalterna]

I was taught the term "Grey man" long ago. To behave in a way that does not draw attention to yourself. This is my first line of defense against takers. Next line is to quietly make sure they know that taking from me will be costly to them... again, without fanfare.
My Fiancee is pinay. I spent plenty of time there with her seeing a society of people trying to remain "grey" as there are predators circling them with little chance of self defense or anyone to help. I spent days in neighborhoods around Manila without seeing another caucasian and I credit my not having to fight my way out to things learned before hand.
Pushed in a corner though, fight to live. I have seen some of the same things Zombiezeke is seeing. I think to some degree that element has always existed on the fringe, we just prefer not to acknowledge it.
2Door

 

[reconranger]

i always thought this movie was the most likely SHTF situation. When you think how much people rely on gas and if there was no more of it i could see bad things happening. Everything in modern society relies on fuel whether it be transportation to food production.

The premise for this movie (Tooth and Nail), is one of the most likely scenarios that I can imagine! Everything runs on petroleum...take it away and everything falls apart. This is truely modern society's achilles heel....

 

[Halberdier]

was that her boob you could see through the shirt?

at least you got me to click on the link

You two are going to die a quick and happy death!

 

[mtwarden]

You two are going to die a quick and happy death!

ahh- much better than a slow, agonizing death

after watching no more than 30 seconds of the video, I do find it amazing this thread is still going- maybe I should have watched longer

 

[Zombie Zeke]

from what you're saying, they're already here. brother i hope you got a plan in the not too distant future for relocating to a more mellow neighborhood. an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. there's no reason to wait for civil disorder to relocate. i'm sure you have reasons for being where you are and it's probably not easy to just pickup and move - but if you're reading the writing on the wall, you're going to have to sometime anyway. better to move when things are still functioning (like ATM machines, gas pumps, etc) than to move with everything falling apart.

Not movin' anytime in the near future, I am sure that ultimately something will happen that makes me consider that point further but for now this is my home and my land. No way in hell I am getting out unless I can go back to Nevada and that won't happen, my wife likes being close to her family, I have none except for them so I am here for the duration.

 

[Gadgetaholic]

The premise for this movie (Tooth and Nail), is one of the most likely scenarios that I can imagine! Everything runs on petroleum...take it away and everything falls apart. This is truely modern society's achilles heel....

Maybe, but the scenario in the movie is a little ridiculous - in 2012 the oil just runs out and the reserves are exhausted in a year after that? I always find it annoying when the script writers think that they can simply say "the scientists were wrong" as if the scientists would believe there was 20 years worth of oil but there was actually only a years worth. Yeah, the oil companies geologists have no clue?

I am sure that the oil will run out one day, but it wont be all that sudden. First the prices will rise by a lot and suddenly many other choices will be cheaper - ethanol, methanol, hydrogen, battery powered, human powered, etc. For shorter journeys the most sensible single person transportation device will surely be the bicycle - cheap and environmentally friendly.

I think that we will have some major changes happening over the next 40 years as the petroleum products become increasingly expensive and various other options become available. But the most likely cause of catastrophe would have to be a combination of global warming and over population.

 

[Halberdier]

ahh- much better than a slow, agonizing death

after watching no more than 30 seconds of the video, I do find it amazing this thread is still going- maybe I should have watched longer

The information that'll keep you alive is.... not there. But still, an interesting point of view and a few things to learn. Looks like it's 'bottle-bottle-neck' for the druggies.

 

[not2sharp]

I can agree with that, but in desperate situations, people don't act like humans, they act like animals. Animals act on instinct and might makes right. Look at the last 50yrs of riots in large metro cities. Gets ugly fast.

In a desperate situation the savages act out; however, most people do not go there, and many actually step out of their ordinary roles to do extraordinary things. What I usually see during major hurricanes is a lot of neighbors helping neighbors. As for rioters, you may have notice that they tend to trash their own streets while protected by cordons of police; they know better then to act out outside of that tiny protected playground.

n2s