Who Will Die First when SHTF

[reconranger]

Maybe, but the scenario in the movie is a little ridiculous - in 2012 the oil just runs out and the reserves are exhausted in a year after that? I always find it annoying when the script writers think that they can simply say "the scientists were wrong" as if the scientists would believe there was 20 years worth of oil but there was actually only a years worth. Yeah, the oil companies geologists have no clue?

I am sure that the oil will run out one day, but it wont be all that sudden. First the prices will rise by a lot and suddenly many other choices will be cheaper - ethanol, methanol, hydrogen, battery powered, human powered, etc. For shorter journeys the most sensible single person transportation device will surely be the bicycle - cheap and environmentally friendly.

I think that we will have some major changes happening over the next 40 years as the petroleum products become increasingly expensive and various other options become available. But the most likely cause of catastrophe would have to be a combination of global warming and over population.

Hey....I never saw the movie and I don't really care what the details were or what you think about the script...I just said that if you turn off the oil tap and society will fall apart within days....but thanks anyway.

 

[Gadgetaholic]

Hey....I never saw the movie and I don't really care what the details were or what you think about the script...I just said that if you turn off the oil tap and society will fall apart within days....but thanks anyway.

Yeah, I haven't seen the movie either - just saying that the petrol suddenly no longer available is a bit silly, it wouldn't happen like that. You wouldn't have the tap just turned off.

Petrol suddenly unavailable over the period of one year - ain't gonna happen.
Petrol quadrupling in price over the next decade - maybe, certainly not impossible.
Petrol quadrupling in price over the next 20 years - I'd be a bit surprised if it didn't.

I would expect that at some point the S will HTF in India - their population continues to increase and I'm not too sure that they can continue to feed that many people. Could India hit 2 billion population without any major problems? Can they be fed? Can the sanitation systems cope?

 

[Ravaillac]

When you think how much people rely on gas and if there was no more of it i could see bad things happening. Everything in modern society relies on fuel whether it be transportation to food production.

Actually fuel can be fairly easily replaced by electricity for most applications and plenty of electricity could be made fairly easily through development of nuclear power.
The sector where it will be the most complicated to replace will be transportation. But before people run out of fuel all the sudden prices will rise effectively limiting "useless" driving which in turn will expand stock lifespan.

 

[rod tak]

I mean, what she said makes sense, but i found it to be quite small minded. Watch out for druggies, and the sick and weak will die first...Yeah, very astute observation.

People tend to over simplify the "SHTF" scenario. All I'm saying is that there is plenty of literature on survival, urban survival and surviving catastrophe. And there are many types of people, who could survive in many different types of ways. Who knows, maybe the ex marine falls and breaks his leg, and the yuppie doctor is the only person who can fix it...But who wants to watch that dullard babble about one microscopic piece of what could potentially happen. I'll listen when you tell me something that isn't obvious.

Sure we should all have a plan. I believe a small community would be the way to survive. And I'm sure one day, our society will slowly move back towards that lifestyle. But until that day comes, I'm a little more concerned about whats happening now. I don't think we are quite at the grab the guns and water jugs phase quite yet. How about getting our country in order first, so we don't need to move into the woods. And don't get me wrong, I like to prepare the worst (almost obsessively), and fantasize about about using all of my custom AR's and Busse's that I have in my panic room just as much as the next guy (not kidding). But I don't know about you, I'm a little more concerned about the way our country is being run.... or our rapidly disappearing middle class.

 

[tabeeb762]

Actually fuel can be fairly easily replaced by electricity for most applications and plenty of electricity could be made fairly easily through development of nuclear power.
The sector where it will be the most complicated to replace will be transportation. But before people run out of fuel all the sudden prices will rise effectively limiting "useless" driving which in turn will expand stock lifespan.

This is true. Nuclear and Hydro power are the best options. I know France basically runs on nuclear, and Italy has plans to build several reactors including one in Sicily. The problem is nuclear power stations take a long time to build, and not a lot of countries can afford, or are allowed to construct them.

Personal wind turbines and a battery bank would be a good option for homes aswell.
I have a solar water heater on my roof - the tube kind. Even with the 6 hours of sunchine we get in winter it needs help from an electric heater.
I don't consider solar power to be a reasonable alternative, at least not currently. It is the same as those crappy energy saving bulbs. High initial investment, low long term gains.

I drive a diesel. Vegetable oil and Ethanol can replace petroleum based diesel fuel, but I still expect prices to rise heavily.

I don't agree completely with the last part. I think fuel will be heavily rationed from the beginning. Stocks might last longer, but normal people will not have access to them.

 

[Zombie Zeke]

This is true. Nuclear and Hydro power are the best options. I know France basically runs on nuclear, and Italy has plans to build several reactors including one in Sicily. The problem is nuclear power stations take a long time to build, and not a lot of countries can afford, or are allowed to construct them.

Personal wind turbines and a battery bank would be a good option for homes aswell.
I have a solar water heater on my roof - the tube kind. Even with the 6 hours of sunchine we get in winter it needs help from an electric heater.
I don't consider solar power to be a reasonable alternative, at least not currently. It is the same as those crappy energy saving bulbs. High initial investment, low long term gains.

I drive a diesel. Vegetable oil and Ethanol can replace petroleum based diesel fuel, but I still expect prices to rise heavily.

I don't agree completely with the last part. I think fuel will be heavily rationed from the beginning. Stocks might last longer, but normal people will not have access to them.

Since we have morphed into theoreticals on the coming tide, I am throwing my hat in the ring for a combo- Hyperinflation, Unemployment and the culminating coup de grace...class/civil war.

 

[kgd]

I mean, what she said makes sense, but i found it to be quite small minded. Watch out for druggies, and the sick and weak will die first...Yeah, very astute observation.

People tend to over simplify the "SHTF" scenario. All I'm saying is that there is plenty of literature on survival, urban survival and surviving catastrophe. And there are many types of people, who could survive in many different types of ways. Who knows, maybe the ex marine falls and breaks his leg, and the yuppie doctor is the only person who can fix it...But who wants to watch that dullard babble about one microscopic piece of what could potentially happen. I'll listen when you tell me something that isn't obvious.

Sure we should all have a plan. I believe a small community would be the way to survive. And I'm sure one day, our society will slowly move back towards that lifestyle. But until that day comes, I'm a little more concerned about whats happening now. I don't think we are quite at the grab the guns and water jugs phase quite yet. How about getting our country in order first, so we don't need to move into the woods. And don't get me wrong, I like to prepare the worst (almost obsessively), and fantasize about about using all of my custom AR's and Busse's that I have in my panic room just as much as the next guy (not kidding). But I don't know about you, I'm a little more concerned about the way our country is being run.... or our rapidly disappearing middle class.

Good post! One reason I like Cody Lundin's books is that he spends a lot of time making sure to talk about the mundane necessities rather than the fantasies. Things like how take a (multiple) craps in a sanitary and sustainable way, how to bury a body, how to tap into unconventional water sources (swimming pools, water heaters...) and sterilize them, how to catch and eat rodents, how to keep yourself warm and dry.

A lot of talk takes the above for granted and focuses on the 'zombie' invasion of shooting/defending against marauders. The reality is you'll be spending 98.9% of your time doing the mundane stuff and so will the would be marauders.

Why are the marauder gangs always portrayed as these folks with unlimited arms and no apparent need to supply themselves during their little sieges? No need for shelter against the elements? No vulnerability to dysentery or disease? Why are they always riding motorcycles? (Is JCAV doomed to be a marauder )

 

[celebornen]

if this happens im going to the wild forever

 

[JCavSD]

Why are the marauder gangs always portrayed as these folks with unlimited arms and no apparent need to supply themselves during their little sieges? No need for shelter against the elements? No vulnerability to dysentery or disease? Why are they always riding motorcycles? (Is JCAV doomed to be a marauder )

Sounds like one of my family reunions. FYI...it's the hard alcohol that sterilizes the body and fends off disease. Stockpile now before I drink it all up. Oh yea!

 

[Grapevine]

I just want to add that a community's makeup will affect how that community reacts. I was at a lecture by the author of The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes and Why. First off, the book is an all right read, not great. Deals with a lot of different disaster scenarios, mostly small ones, and how the makeup of the person and often luck determines the outcome.

Anyway, she talked a bit about about things she didn't put in the book. I got the sense that it would have been too controversial had she put it in, and she and the editor might have feared being branded racist if she did. She compared how different parts of NYC reacted to a big blackout in the 70s. In the ghettos you had looting. In the Village where the "yuppies" were, you had people helping each other and sharing. Then she compared it to how in the mid-2000s NYC had another blackout, and this time there was virtually no looting and a whole lot of people helping each other. The difference? A totally different mindset and class of people were now living in NYC. During the 70s, NYC was known for drugs and pimps and crime. From late 80s to 2000s it got more and more expensive to live there and the professionals displaced the poor. And with that came a different general culture.

She also compared how NYC dealt with disasters compared to New Orleans. She said right off the bat, as she was researching for the book, she knew that NO would not fare well. The reason? Even without a disaster, its moral makeup was very low. It had one of the highest crime rates of the cities in the US. So when disaster struck, the character makeup of the city pre-disposed it to a certain response. Same thing would happen in Detroit. Minneapolis would react more like NYC and people would come together to help each other, to their own surprise and delight.

So anyway, if your current community has professional people used to working together at work and at play, they'll likely be like that still when a disaster strikes. If your community is filled with trash (white trash, black trash, hispanic trash, whatever), and you're one of the few "good" people there, then be prepared to defend yourself with violence.

 

[Thalestin]

I just want to add that a community's makeup will affect how that community reacts. I was at a lecture by the author of The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes and Why. First off, the book is an all right read, not great. Deals with a lot of different disaster scenarios, mostly small ones, and how the makeup of the person and often luck determines the outcome.

Anyway, she talked a bit about about things she didn't put in the book. I got the sense that it would have been too controversial had she put it in, and she and the editor might have feared being branded racist if she did. She compared how different parts of NYC reacted to a big blackout in the 70s. In the ghettos you had looting. In the Village where the "yuppies" were, you had people helping each other and sharing. Then she compared it to how in the mid-2000s NYC had another blackout, and this time there was virtually no looting and a whole lot of people helping each other. The difference? A totally different mindset and class of people were now living in NYC. During the 70s, NYC was known for drugs and pimps and crime. From late 80s to 2000s it got more and more expensive to live there and the professionals displaced the poor. And with that came a different general culture.

She also compared how NYC dealt with disasters compared to New Orleans. She said right off the bat, as she was researching for the book, she knew that NO would not fare well. The reason? Even without a disaster, its moral makeup was very low. It had one of the highest crime rates of the cities in the US. So when disaster struck, the character makeup of the city pre-disposed it to a certain response. Same thing would happen in Detroit. Minneapolis would react more like NYC and people would come together to help each other, to their own surprise and delight.

So anyway, if your current community has professional people used to working together at work and at play, they'll likely be like that still when a disaster strikes. If your community is filled with trash (white trash, black trash, hispanic trash, whatever), and you're one of the few "good" people there, then be prepared to defend yourself with violence.

totally agree. I feel you can survive by making friends and working together, or eliminating everyone else. Different people choose different routes

 

[tabeeb762]

This thread really got me curious, so I've been poking around some of the popular TEOTWAWKI/SHTF sites. Most reccommend investing in Gold/Silver, and it seems to be a pretty good idea.

Anybody got any tips? I'm looking at 1oz silver rounds. Dont care about collectors value.
The spot price went up around $5 in a week. Is this a good or bad time to buy?

 

[kgd]

:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup: Grapevine! Good info there, thanks!

 

[batosai117]

:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup: Grapevine! Good info there, thanks!

I always hear interesting things from the grapevine

 

[crossada]

This thread really got me curious, so I've been poking around some of the popular TEOTWAWKI/SHTF sites. Most reccommend investing in Gold/Silver, and it seems to be a pretty good idea.

Anybody got any tips? I'm looking at 1oz silver rounds. Dont care about collectors value.
The spot price went up around $5 in a week. Is this a good or bad time to buy?

i heard on a radio program that collector's coins are the only ones protected under law. Meaning if the gov't needs to take your silver in a SHTF situation they can't touched minted coins because of their collector's value. The metal itself is fair game to be taken. I think this law was put into place back during the depression era. Just food for thought

 

[tabeeb762]

i heard on a radio program that collector's coins are the only ones protected under law. Meaning if the gov't needs to take your silver in a SHTF situation they can't touched minted coins because of their collector's value. The metal itself is fair game to be taken. I think this law was put into place back during the depression era. Just food for thought

The biggest problem with most collector coins is they cost a lot more than their actual metal value.

EDIT: Wait a second. What exactly defines a collector coin? Are Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs etc considered collector's coins, or is the definition exclusive only to the Franklin Mint limited edition type of stuff?

 

[KarlMaldensNose]

I'm a little late to the table on this one so I don't know if it's been pointed out yet (I only read the first page of this thread)... but it's obvious this girl has spent time in an "institutional setting". She's clearly demented and paranoid -- and I'm not just referring to the crazed ramblings spilling from her mouth. Just listen to the disturbed and disjointed way she's talking. And the sunglasses indoors? I'm surprised this thead went so far.

 

[JCavSD]

I'm a little late to the table on this one so I don't know if it's been pointed out yet (I only read the first page of this thread)... but it's obvious this girl has spent time in an "institutional setting". She's clearly demented and paranoid -- and I'm not just referring to the crazed ramblings spilling from her mouth. Just listen to the disturbed and disjointed way she's talking. And the sunglasses indoors? I'm surprised this thead went so far.

You're reading it all wrong. The sunglasses are a dead giveaway...the girl is baked.

 

[Big philly 1]

In a "SHTF" thing. THeres gonna be alt of people to die. In my opinion, the people who are gonna die first arent the "hippies" but the retards that come on message boards talkin about how they got all this gear showin there guns. Well i personaly think there the ones who are gonna die first. because there gonna run outside like rambo and bam, There gonna show there stuff and people are gonna come take there stuff. there gonna get a few people but 1 person cant take a whole company of people who are desperate. me im gonna hide, and thats why i dont talk about what i have. Yall shouldnt either.
its called security for a reason.

 

[tabeeb762]

In a "SHTF" thing. THeres gonna be alt of people to die. In my opinion, the people who are gonna die first arent the "hippies" but the retards that come on message boards talkin about how they got all this gear showin there guns. Well i personaly think there the ones who are gonna die first. because there gonna run outside like rambo and bam, There gonna show there stuff and people are gonna come take there stuff. there gonna get a few people but 1 person cant take a whole company of people who are desperate. me im gonna hide, and thats why i dont talk about what i have. Yall shouldnt either.
its called security for a reason.

So....do you wear sunglasses indoors too?