I'm new around here, though I've been collecting knives off and on for 20 years or so... but I do know a little about collecting and investments, being a collector of various things- and having been a registered stock broker, commodity trader, etc. in years past.
The price of most "collectibles" will continue to go up as long as there is excess cash floating in major world markets. (In recent years if Americans won't swoop down and buy something up- the Japanese will!)
In it's purest form it's a simple case of supply and demand. Just try buying a 1966 Shelby Cobra or a 1957 Fender Stratocaster guitar: not many made and lots of baby boomers who want one and have made a bundle on home appreciation or the stock market run.
But there's also the "Greater Fool Theory" at work in our culture. The theory suggests that it really doesn't matter what someone pays for something because there's always a "greater fool" out there somewhere who will pay more! Just ask those who were SCRAMBLING to buy the dot.com stocks a few years ago; had to have them at ANY PRICE!
Or take the tulip-frenzy in Holland in the early 1600's when tulip bulbs were all the rage and were trading hands at ridiculous prices. Some were sold at prices in excess of 5000 guilders (a best guess of perhaps $250,000.000 in todays' money) while others were "hoarded" and offers of thousands of guilders were turned down.
In the winter of 1836 auction prices dipped and within days the market collapsed. Tulips that had sold for 5000 guilders were suddenly worth only 50 cents or a dollar. The "greater fool" simply failed to show up and panic-selling ensued as prices plunged. Sort of like the dot.com stock collapse, eh? :barf:
I also had the opportunity to walk through an acquaintances Ferrari collection a few years ago. We were standing beside an exquisite F40 when I asked him, "What's this car worth?" He scratched his head and winced: "Well... I bought it near the top of the Ferrari collecting frenzy after Enzo Ferrari's death in 1989. Some F40's traded hands above $1.5 million. I didn't pay quite that much but pretty close. Today it's worth perhaps $250,000 so I'm down a little over $1 million on it at the moment."
So is a knife worth $2500 or more? It is under three conditions: 1- There are lots of excess $$$ floating around waiting to be spent... 2- there is always "somebody" that will pay me $3500 for it if I want to sell it or 3- if you want to own it and it's more valuable to you than anything else you could own for $2500... even if nobody else ever wants it.
If the market ever hiccups and prices start to decline... OR if there's a worldwide recession (or worse yet a depression) then watch out as prices begin to plummet and the market is glutted with a flood of knives offered at ever-decreasing prices.
A $3000 knife won't cut a bit better than most $100 knives and not all THAT much better than some $15 knives. And if a guy has convinced his wife that the $30,000 home equity loan he invested in 15 "collectible knives" is a great investment- just watch as the market plunges and he frantically tries to sell them to recover a portion of their retirement nestegg!!
Bottom line: You pays your money and you plays the game. But just know that a $2000 knife has little intrinsic value. It's value is in the eye of the beholder and the perceived sense of worth.... just like a beautiful tulip bulb. In the end- they're only a cutting tool... or a flower... even if rare ones.
Me? I operate under the same assumption with collecting knives as I would if I were collecting tulip bulbs. Buy what you like- and ASSUME that there aren't any buyers out there for your collection- never spend more than you can comfortably afford to "throw away."
Someday you may be pleasantly surprised at the value of your collection... or you may be SHOCKED at it's lack of value in a staggering economy. Buy what you like and enjoy them for what they are- tools.
Now how's THAT for a long-winded, opinionated FIRST EVER POST!
Steve