A reality check for most makers

Les Robertson said:
Hi Tai,


It is these very indicators that help you identify makers, style trends, design element trends, price point trends, collector trends, etc. Within the business plan each can be weighted with a Beta.

The Beta for purposes of custom knives would be a covariance of one maker compared to all the other makers in a particular market. This is a leading indicator to a makers position in the market (and you guys thought I was just guessing).

Beta examples might be makers who don't deliver on time, don't value price their knives, don't produce enough knives, all receive a higher beta because of the volatility this creates among collectors.

Although, short term this can work to the advantage of those looking for a decent return if you are able to get the knife directly from the maker. Then turn it in the after market for double or triple.

Any way enough of what Bob Terzuola calls "That MBA talk". LOL
Click to expand...

Les, do you actually know what the beta coefficient measures and what is means? How would you calculate it for custom knives?

what about covariance? is it an appropriate term for your example?

since we are being unvarnished...did you actually take a finance or statistics class for your "mba"? or just a business jargon class?
 
I think I understood what Les meant.

There's an average "volatility" to the custom knife making industry. On average, makers are less reliable (in terms of follow through, promessed delivery dates, behavior, professionalism, etc) than many other professional endavor. That's just a fact of life.

Now there are makers who are more chaotic than the average, and others that are less (Jerry Fisk has such a reputation).

It's not a bad use of the term to use "beta" to describe that - though I agree that it's jargonese.
 
Hi Joss,


Yes, exactly right.


Bandaid,

I had a person saying that I could not predict the future of custom knives.

I felt I could, so I was trying to explain how I come up with the criteria I use for the makers I consider working with.

The covariance which shows a correlation between two variables multiplied by the standard deviation (which I can weight as I see fit, since it is my business, my rules).

Variables such as Delivers on Time or gives a bigger discount but is usually late. Can show which knives would be better to have based on different scenarios or "courses of action".

Example, while Delivers on Time over the course of a year may be more desirable variable (and carry a higher value) and as such when multiplied by the standard deviation would prove to be a better COA for the long term.

However, when you consider the cost of shows. Working with a maker who will bring knives to a show, deliver them and give you a bigger discount. Well in this COA, the bigger discount would be the more desirable variable (and carry a higher value). As such for the above SHOW COA, a larger discount would be the COA that would provide the best result.

Bandaid, when you are doing your business plan what methodology do you use
with regards to COA's??

BTW, what is your Corporations name and what does it do?

I understand that what I am using for my business is primarily used for stocks.

I have to admit I picked up "Courses of Action" learning to plan military operations.

Did they teach you something different at the Grad School you went to?

I received my MBA in 1995 so Im sure some things have changed since then.

Oh, Since my undergrad degree was Criminal Justice. I had to take 5 undergrad business classes, two of them were Statistics and Finance. During Grad school I had a Statistical Analysis class and two Finance classes. Of course Marketing was my concentration.

Did you have to take a lot of Statistics and Finance classes for your MBA?

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
 
Hi Les,

I've been following your posts in this thread with great interest. I've read your articles in KI over the past year, too. In fact, it is partly the influence of those articles which have stimulated my interest in handmade knives. Thanks a lot. I'm getting poorer by the minute;)

At any rate, I guess you could say that I appreciate your contribution to this industry, and particularly your contribution to the dialogue in this forum, as you haven't seemed to really hold back on presenting your methodology, which some in your position would probably guard pretty closely.

So I have a question here for you if you don't mind. You referred in an earlier post in this thread about a series of questions you'd ask a maker to determine their value to you as a 'partner', (right word?). I'm really curious about what those questions are.

Thanks!
 
Hi Lorien,

Thank you very much.

The questions I ask are geared directly to the business aspect of custom knives and to the character of the maker.

My experience has shown me that those makers who will at least consider the business aspect of their knife making generally improve their position in a particular market much quicker than those who don't.

If you are interested in what questions collectors should ask, I would recommend my buying guide.

I generally don't discuss the questions I ask the makers who may be considered as a "business partner".

I hate to give out the questions before someone takes the test.

My, methodology is just that...mine. I think every business owner likes to put their mark on their business. They all have certain ideas as to why things should be done a certain way.

This same reasoning lends itself as to why there are so many makers. Most have looked at a knife at one time and thought to themselves...I could do as good if not better than that.

While each maker may use a lot of the same methods, machines and tools (depending on if the forge or do stock removal). They each look at the knife just a little different than another maker.

An experiment I did one time was to give two makers the same exact drawing and asked them to make that knife. Now some would expect the knives to be almost exactly the same. However, these two knives were not "brothers" they were barely 1st Cousins. LOL

However, it was their interpretation of the same knife.

That taught me two valuable lessons.

1) That knife makers really do have a different way of looking at the same knife.

2) When I give a drawing to a maker...I give them additional guidance to go with it.

As I want them to look at it through my eyes.

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
 
There's some good food for thought there that I'm going to have to digest. I appreciate the time you've spent so far sharing your thoughts. I feel smarter already:)
 
You aren't kidding! Just when I think my brain's full, along comes another blast of new information. It's so fun and interesting though. And this place is so full of good people.
Lovin it!:thumbup::)
 
hi joss, i know what les was getting at.

it was simply an incorrect usage. beta is a calculated result, not a vague qualitative judgement. it is also not always easy to calculate or properly interpret either.

the points about delivering on time/discounts etc are all valid. you just cant calculate a meaningful beta in this case. to try to act like you can is just gobbledygook.

it was kind of like saying "the rockwell hardness of the knife is yellow".


Les

i would not recommend having a battle of CVs. you have a weak undergraduate major. if there is one in the nation that utilizes a rigorous calculus based stats i would love to know about it. you also have a bottom tier MBA from a non-selective school that currently requires a lower level undergraduate non-calculus based statistics class. what kind of stats class did you take?

as far as courses of action, you have often utilized your military experience as the basis for your recommendations.

from your website it appears you were in the army from 1983-1995.

is this correct?

what actual combat or operational experience did you have during this time?
 
bandaidman said:
what actual combat or operational experience did you have during this time?
Click to expand...

what does that have to do with choosing/suggesting knives? open question, anyone please chime in. I only have a BS in bus. admin. and waiting on fed rec for my commission, so I'm quite outclassed.
 
Hi Kevin,

Bandaid is basically a troll who enjoys taking pot shots from behind his cloak of anonymity.

You will have noticed that he has not answered my questions. Instead he asks more questions.

As well if he posts again you will note he will not answer my questions again.

he will not give his name nor his profession.

I have asked him for this on other occasions and he has not done it.

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
 
If identity were a requirement for participation it would do away with a lot of this hostility.
Now that's a reality check.
 
HI Hard Heart,

LOL you are not outclassed here.

I agree that military service even as an Infantry Officer with the 101st Airborne doesn't give you all the answers.

I was fortunate enough to actually carry and use custom knives while in the Army.

Most people in the Military have limited (daily chores type things) or no experience with a knife. I would say that the majority of the Army (E-5 and below) use some type of multi-tool than they do a knife on a daily basis.

I received 2 hours of Bayonet training during Officer Basic Course. That was the total training I received with a knife while in the Army. This probably has to do (to a large degree) because we carry firearms. I received countless hours of training with many different types.

Any one who is so inclined and has different types of field environments can test their knives. Use knives of different shapes and sizes, different steels, etc.

If you get a chance check out the cutting competition at the Blade Show.

I think what contributed to Walter Brend's success, was not his military back ground, but his formal training as a butcher. Now here was a guy using a knife all day, cutting and boning meat all day.

How about the hunting guides who, as part of their profession, dress out animals (some of all types) on a regular basis.

Point is service in the Military does not instantly make you a knife expert. Although there are some who have a very good understanding of what types of knives are best for what tasks.

I spent a lot of time in the field....the one thing I do know is that there is always more to learn.

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
 
Hi Kevin,

Even if you didn't get rid of the hostility, everyone would have to take responsibility for their words.

That is a reality check that most don't want to write.

He is correct about arguing CV's with him. He is right, I don't want to....that is some boring S**T.

LOL

Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
 
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