Concerns About Survive! Business and Misleading Lead Time Estimates

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I know this has puzzled and frustrated some supporters wondering why they heck won't those critics of SK just do their refund and leave already!??
But I think I know why they don't. It's the "in for a penny in for a pound" saying where you have customers with so much emotion, and money, and Time (some waiting 18 months), they can't just "let it go" and walk away. They want to see the ride to it's end even when the ride is starting to cause them a lot of heartache. It's kind of an irony that has bitten SK! in the butt, the whole "investment" aspect of the preorders. Investment is not a one way on/off street. You don't just date someone for two years then wake up one morning and say I am leaving. It's usually some drawn out drama because of all that has been invested into that relationship that went south. I am sorry to use such a weird analogy, but you get the picture. Please pardon my psychoanalysis.
Well, that's just my OP and take on it..

For me its not a why wont you leave already situation as much as an if it bothers you so much to call someone out when they are acknowledging there is a problem and they are trying to fix it and then saying why should i believe you believe you and why should i give you the time to because you have lied so many times before instead of just getting a refund or and or getting one via monday sales or seconds oranother way. I am an 18 month gso 7/7preorder guy but when i bought it they told me they hoped it would be early 2016 but nothing was in stone so i cant be mad because thats the deal i made they stated up front there wasnt a gaurantee and i dont like it but i agreed and every other knife i have pre ordered has said we cant gaurantee the time frame i cut them more slack because i see things have been changing so it would slow the process down like heat treat ,handle shape upon other things. I dont like waiting on my gso either but im not gonna blast their reps when they are apoligizing and saying we should be seeing a difference by november. At least not yet ;-) Its just in bad taste IMO and its probably not a great decision on my part to take it on as my place to say so
 
Goose, I respect you bringing up the points you do. In this case I think the OP is just genuinely concerned. He doesn't have any outstanding orders to ask for refunds on and he is looking for a positive outcome. After his last post, I think he is willing to wait to see what happens next month.

SURVIVE! (and their fans) have seen way worse than this thread in the past. I can post links if you'd like (:D), but just look at the old 4.7 thread that got closed or a very pointless yet damaging thread started in the Good, Bad, Ugly a few months ago. Those threads were filled with whining and insults and misinformation. This thread isn't about the frustration of one person's order, but rather a concern about the big picture.

Here's to November :thumbup:
 
Ellie, what makes this time different than all the other times that you have promised "change" and given us delivery dates?

In the beginning of 2015 you took more that 3x longer than promised to deliver GSO-5 knives you sold (not 5.1, but 5). It has been a continual string inaccurate lead times ever since (and it seems like you were missing delivery dates very consistently before then too). You have been working on the 4.7 for over a year, and I am curious about how the relatively small changes you mentioned in previous posts are going to result in the GSO-4.7 Cru Forge V, GSO-2.7, GSO-4.1 and GSO 7/7 getting finished "in a few months."

Many, many advocates for your brand bring up how much they "trust" you and Guy. To be honest, I felt the same way at one point. However, when you claimed that you would be delivering the latest round of 7/7 pre-sales in "a few months," I had to step back and reevaluate my evaluation of your integrity. Ellie, are you still claiming that you will deliver the 7/7 pre-sales in "a few months," and what exactly does "a few months" mean in your mind?

I spent a BIG part of my corporate career fighting to keep manufacturing jobs in america and now own a small business. I really like the idea of what you and Guy are trying to do and want to see you succeed. However, based on your past performance and your latest sales e-mails, I worry that you are not the company that I thought you were.
Yep, I totally agree with this.
 
Goose, I respect you bringing up the points you do. In this case I think the OP is just genuinely concerned. He doesn't have any outstanding orders to ask for refunds on and he is looking for a positive outcome. After his last post, I think he is willing to wait to see what happens next month.

SURVIVE! (and their fans) have seen way worse than this thread in the past. I can post links if you'd like (:D), but just look at the old 4.7 thread that got closed or a very pointless yet damaging thread started in the Good, Bad, Ugly a few months ago. Those threads were filled with whining and insults and misinformation. This thread isn't about the frustration of one person's order, but rather a concern about the big picture.

Here's to November :thumbup:

You're a good man Charlie Brown. I don't agree that people lobbing passive aggressive bashes is a positive thing but there is no universe where you aren't one of S!K's biggest fans. As irritating as the comments were in the GB &U thread the ones promulgated in this thread are even worse as far as I'm concerned. The veneer of well wishes to S!K couched in trash-talk is horseshit. Nobody held a gun to my head and made me go for a preorder. Nobody is keeping me from asking for a refund. To paraphrase and respond to an earlier comment.. if a chick I'd been dating for a couple years turned out to be unreliable and unfaithful, I'd wait about two blinks before I'd kick her ass down the road. If I held out and stuck with her.. I'm the idiot. If you think you're getting screwed, walk away.
 
You're a good man Charlie Brown. I don't agree that people lobbing passive aggressive bashes is a positive thing but there is no universe where you aren't one of S!K's biggest fans. As irritating as the comments were in the GB &U thread the ones promulgated in this thread are even worse as far as I'm concerned. The veneer of well wishes to S!K couched in trash-talk is horseshit. Nobody held a gun to my head and made me go for a preorder. Nobody is keeping me from asking for a refund. To paraphrase and respond to an earlier comment.. if a chick I'd been dating for a couple years turned out to be unreliable and unfaithful, I'd wait about two blinks before I'd kick her ass down the road. If I held out and stuck with her.. I'm the idiot. If you think you're getting screwed, walk away.

As far as the OP of this thread I don't think it's passive agressive. That is what the GBU thread looked like to me.

I see this thread being similar to someone telling me I accidently tucked my shirt into my leopard print thong. It would be easier to not say anything and avoid the uncomfortable conversation, but to point it out would save me trouble in the long run. With that said, any thread or post is open for interpretation and I have nothing but respect for you, Grog.
 
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Ellie, what makes this time different than all the other times that you have promised "change" and given us delivery dates?

In the beginning of 2015 you took more that 3x longer than promised to deliver GSO-5 knives you sold (not 5.1, but 5). It has been a continual string inaccurate lead times ever since (and it seems like you were missing delivery dates very consistently before then too). You have been working on the 4.7 for over a year, and I am curious about how the relatively small changes you mentioned in previous posts are going to result in the GSO-4.7 Cru Forge V, GSO-2.7, GSO-4.1 and GSO 7/7 getting finished "in a few months."

Many, many advocates for your brand bring up how much they "trust" you and Guy. To be honest, I felt the same way at one point. However, when you claimed that you would be delivering the latest round of 7/7 pre-sales in "a few months," I had to step back and reevaluate my evaluation of your integrity. Ellie, are you still claiming that you will deliver the 7/7 pre-sales in "a few months," and what exactly does "a few months" mean in your mind?

I spent a BIG part of my corporate career fighting to keep manufacturing jobs in america and now own a small business. I really like the idea of what you and Guy are trying to do and want to see you succeed. However, based on your past performance and your latest sales e-mails, I worry that you are not the company that I thought you were.

The OP makes a great point. If you look at their current posted production schedule, there is nothing being water jetted, production ground, or at heat treat. Why not fill the pipeline? I believe that these are done at outside vendors, and all of these operations have lead times. If they wait until they catch up, they will be waiting for product to show up. Just wondering why is all.
 
Probably trying not to overextend their cash flow, but that's pure speculation.


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Indeed alot of pass ive aggressive types
Forumite: I am concerned that SK will go bankrupt. I want assurances that they have enough cash fliw
Ellie: We are working hard to fix the problems
Forumite: That's not good enough... I want more

Perhaps you would like access to SKs books and bank accounts ? Maybe a cup of coffee with that Sir?
 
As far as the OP of this thread I don't think it's passive agressive. That is what the GBU thread looked like to me.

I see this thread being similar to someone telling me I accidently tucked my shirt into my leopard print thong. It would be easier to not say anything and avoid the uncomfortable conversation, but point it out would save me trouble in the long run. With that said, any thread or post is open for interpretation and I have nothing but respect for you, Grog.

That is just a visual I just did not need this morning SN.:eek:
 
As far as the OP of this thread I don't think it's passive agressive. That is what the GBU thread looked like to me.

I see this thread being similar to someone telling me I accidently tucked my shirt into my leopard print thong. It would be easier to not say anything and avoid the uncomfortable conversation, but point it out would save me trouble in the long run. With that said, any thread or post is open for interpretation and I have nothing but respect for you, Grog.

I have no idea what you look like, but the image your comment produces in my mind is not good. PLEASE, stop writing stuff like that.
 
Indeed alot of pass ive aggressive types
Forumite: I am concerned that SK will go bankrupt. I want assurances that they have enough cash fliw
Ellie: We are working hard to fix the problems
Forumite: That's not good enough... I want more

Perhaps you would like access to SKs books and bank accounts ? Maybe a cup of coffee with that Sir?

No access to bank accounts or financial records needed. Keep in mind the same representatives that reassured us in this thread are also the ones responsible for continually promising delivery dates 'right around the corner.' In my case, a 15 day delivery time overshoots to 60 days with a updated shipping deadline by the end of week x, then missing that date too.

It's fair to ask for a little more info in good faith and not demand or expect a full financial audit. Maybe just "we've got a backlog of x qty of 4.7 seconds and were able to ship y qty this week" or "we're working on orders xx-xx this week." I know info like that would have kept my orders in queue.
 
You're a good man Charlie Brown. I don't agree that people lobbing passive aggressive bashes is a positive thing but there is no universe where you aren't one of S!K's biggest fans. As irritating as the comments were in the GB &U thread the ones promulgated in this thread are even worse as far as I'm concerned. The veneer of well wishes to S!K couched in trash-talk is horseshit. Nobody held a gun to my head and made me go for a preorder. Nobody is keeping me from asking for a refund. To paraphrase and respond to an earlier comment.. if a chick I'd been dating for a couple years turned out to be unreliable and unfaithful, I'd wait about two blinks before I'd kick her ass down the road. If I held out and stuck with her.. I'm the idiot. If you think you're getting screwed, walk away.

Sorry, but what's your point? Do you have one other then you don't like people posting anything negative.
Seriously, who cares with what you agree with other then yourself? It's pretty rich complaining about passive aggressive bashes coming from someone that compares respectful conversation to a hemorrhoid flare-up. No one is stopping you from singing praises and bragging bout your loyalty, and you are not stopping anyone from putting forward respectful critical points even if they are repeated and annoy you. If you want to complain about members I suggest you take it the Wine/Cheese subs and let us know how that works out for ya.

The irony is you don't like a thread like this and yet it was in THIS thread that we saw Ellie Respond to legit concerns and offer up some new positive information about changing things up at SK! and expect to see some improvements in the coming months. I see that as a Positive exchange representing the usefulness of a BF manufacture's SUB and far more useful to both customers and SK! then 20 pages of an echo chamber singing praises and comparing loyalty levels (not that there is anything wrong with that).
 
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Indeed alot of pass ive aggressive types
Forumite: I am concerned that SK will go bankrupt. I want assurances that they have enough cash fliw
Ellie: We are working hard to fix the problems
Forumite: That's not good enough... I want more

Perhaps you would like access to SKs books and bank accounts ? Maybe a cup of coffee with that Sir?
I get what you're saying, but in this case I have strong reason to believe the intentions are in the right place and there's a desire for a positive outcome. I know he's pushing for more details, but I don't think he's trolling here. I'm hoping all will be made clear in a month and this issue will be but a memory.

That is just a visual I just did not need this morning SN.:eek:
I have no idea what you look like, but the image your comment produces in my mind is not good. PLEASE, stop writing stuff like that.
Ok ok, I don't want to take things too far, so I'll just say "hairy as hell" and leave it at that :D

No access to bank accounts or financial records needed. Keep in mind the same representatives that reassured us in this thread are also the ones responsible for continually promising delivery dates 'right around the corner.' In my case, a 15 day delivery time overshoots to 60 days with a updated shipping deadline by the end of week x, then missing that date too.

It's fair to ask for a little more info in good faith and not demand or expect a full financial audit. Maybe just "we've got a backlog of x qty of 4.7 seconds and were able to ship y qty this week" or "we're working on orders xx-xx this week." I know info like that would have kept my orders in queue.
I think this is important to keep in mind. This thread has not been built on "I ordered a knife a year ago and I want it NOW" like what got our 4.7 thread locked and what goes on, on the Facebook page.

This is a rational and polite plea for clarity and consistency.

If you're looking out for yourself as an individual, then it comes down to "take it or leave it" with the business model and orders. If you're genuinely concerned about the longevity of the company then I think having this discussed is a good thing.
 
That is what I was getting at, we are very close to the "show you" part. I think you guys are going to be pretty happy by the start of November.

Speculation purely, but might that mean a big change, such as in a corporate buy out or expanded partnership, with the financing and additional employees to ensure solvency?
 
From Ellie's post on 10/5/2016:
"...Now that extra hand work is mostly completed (see our latest Instagram post). We have all of the GSO-4.7 Starter orders built and Guy will be sharpening those over the next few days. The remaining GSO-4.7 preorders will be getting worked on through next week."

From Elllie’s post on 10/8/2016 in the “New 4.7 Thread”
SURVIVE! Starter orders (March and April) have all shipped. The orders thin out quite a bit after that, so should be through May and June pretty quickly. Will be getting to the Presale orders ASAP.

Is it just me or is there a difference between these two posts? If they got from the beginning of the starter orders to April in let's say just short of a year, how are they going to get from May through the presale in a week?

I think this is a big week for Survive. They pretty much stated that a lot of 4.7's will be going out and I think folks are going to hold them to that (let's call it a best guess).

Don't get me wrong, I really hope they are able to get through these 4.7's and on to some new models. I just think people, me included, are a bit skeptical (or too skeptical depending on who you ask) when we see production updates.
 
Only Survive really knows the numbers of knives that were ordered in a given time period.
Still, since the 4.7 went into production in June of 2015 there wouldn't be any orders between that time and the pre-sales.
 
Only Survive really knows the numbers of knives that were ordered in a given time period.
Still, since the 4.7 went into production in June of 2015 there wouldn't be any orders between that time and the pre-sales.

That's good news. Also, I doubt the pre-sales were as big as the starter orders. I guess time will tell.....time will tell.
 
Yeah, I'd wager that their own site doesn't generate many new marketing impressions - folks probably arrive there having been introduced to the product elsewhere...

I believe you are right. I had been away from BF, but not knife forums in general, and only recently heard about them from a youtube channel (BlackScoutSurvival.)


Youtube. Folks, it has always been youtube. There was even a thread asking about how S!K got so big to be selling out of knives 1000 at a time with almost no marketing.
BlackScoutSurvival
Equip2Endure
Nutnfancy
GideonsTactical
etc.
etc.
etc.

Survive! is an internet-based company, and Guy came here way back when to stimulate interest in his original designs, but that is NOT what brought on the massive expansion of orders.
Most customers looking to buy "the best knife for the money" do a google search (or similar) looking for images and especially for videos. There really aren't that many youtube reviews of S!K products, but nearly every one I have seen extols the knives in one way or another. Google "survive knives" and you get their website, this subforum, facebook, etc., but click the "videos" tab and you are OFF! :cool:

Now, people can troll the comments sections of those videos and attack the company every way possible (like one common poster in this thread who presents a very different tone here on BF, leading me to distrust EVERY post he makes), but how many people actually READ the comments on such videos? Especially if viewing them on a mobile device (as is now common)? I am new to these devices (had a flip-phone until very recently) and have only used it to watch videos twice, not once did I think to check the comments-section.

People who find this subforum got here from somewhere, but there are NO WHERE NEAR enough people trafficking this forum to account for all of S!K's orders, which should tell you right away that people order from S!K without ever coming here, maybe without ever checking FB (I know that a lot of people abandoned that platform - too ugly and time-killing), the instagram people seem a lot more calm (I don't have an account there but do read comments), and internet blogsters have even less traffic.

People buy in because they like how it looks, like how it performs, and have the money. Some people are patient, others less so.

There was a wave of recent shipping-notices (including something for me :) ) and the production schedule indicates that the 4.7s (to date, the longest 'in production' knife on the S!K roster, at 13+ months) are almost all out the door.
The 2.7s have been shipping out already (not yet 12 months in production), and if the 4.1s start shipping by mid-December (which seems likely) than they will have taken 12 months to go from steel-being-cut to knife-in-hand.

Missing delivery estimates without giving clear notice of the expectation is stupid, it shouldn't happen. For Survive!, it seems to happen a lot when they give such estimates. When no estimate is given (i.e. not trying for quick sales), they are actually pretty consistent with their production times... which is a while :p (approximately 6 - 12 months right now). People quote "17 months" because that is when they paid for (invested in) a Starter knife, but that is NOT when production started on anything but the 5.1s, which have all been out for a while now, afaiaa. NO ONE has been waiting on a S! knife for 2 years yet.

Regarding the analogy to a "relationship", ONLY the starters and maybe the pre-orders qualify. Folks waiting 15 days, 30 days, 60 days, no way - that's barely in the range of the length of a highschool romance (and also happens to be within the range of entering a credit-card dispute for acquiring a charge-back in the event of REALLY distrusting the company). If you ordered a knife with that expectation and it missed shipping deadlines over and over again (like Clip.'s situation), no that isn't right, and that "relationship" effectively ended after the second missed deadline - "Sorry, it's not working out. See you around! Thanks for helping me with my homework." If you chose to stick around despite the missed deadlines, THEN we are talking "investment" because you are giving without taking while waiting for the fulfillment of the promise, an endeavor that takes trust and patience.

"Trust" and "patience" do not mean ignoring problems, but they do imply a lack of passive-aggressive behavior, including saying one thing about the company here on BF and something completely different elsewhere *cough*. It also implies believing the rep when she says, "We're improving", and YES giving the "benefit of the doubt". If you are NOT willing to give that trust, then you are the "bad guy" in the relationship.

Ellie has mentioned changes, what is evident on the production schedule is a pause to all production not in-house. Why? Well, they have at least 1000 4.1s in house to finish and ship on top of the remaining 4.7s and 2.7s, and the 7/7s that are apparently in-house, and there are only ... is it five now? ... that many people working on them. It may not take that long for the 3.5s and 12s (wait, really the 12's are right after the 3.5s?? awesome) to go through water-jet, grinding, and HT, so I for one will be watching the schedule to see when those start moving forward while ALSO waiting for the next 4.1s to make it into the wild. :cool:


Someone asserted that this thread is supposedly a "cause" of "improvements" in production or communication, etc. I see no evidence of that, no more than the silly "EDComm" blog-post getting the blogger his knife any faster than it already was coming. Don't kid yourself thinking that your attacks (that's not many people, that's just a few) on the company are making a positive difference. They aren't. Most of the constructive criticism was made a long time ago and can be summed up as, "Ellie, hire more people and stop giving delivery estimates and make MY knife now already." Going back to the title of this thread, this is yet ANOTHER line of, "Here's how S!K should be doing business," and we've had about enough of those, haven't we? Nothing new to see/read other than about knives shipping out and customers being satisfied or asking for and receiving a refund. The company remains in business and has STILL never failed to deliver, they just take a while. Maybe one day S!K will close this forum altogether like ESEE, Kershaw, others *shrug* They don't NEED a presence here, people. Their products speak for themselves and sell with or without this forum.


In other news, my Starter GSO-4.7 may be arriving precisely on my birthday, which is kinda cool given how totally random it is ;)
 
I am a huge fan of their knives, and would have ordered many more if I could actually get them. The longer than expected lead time that I am witnessing has kept me from ordering more. The risk to reward ratio is too great for me. Maybe after I get the one I currently have on order, I will feel differently.

I have five open orders at the moment and as much as I'd like to add yet another to the list (7/7) I am holding off until I get a couple in hand. I definitely feel the concerns about having so much money tied up for a long amount of time without having anything to show for it. I am a very patient individual and I'm sure S!K will deliver but it's getting harder to justify a new purchase.

This is the reason I only own one Survive. I don't really want to use the secondary market with price hikes, but I don't want to put money down on a knife that will take so long to get to me.

I invested in the starter as much as I felt comfortable, and i finally broke down and pre-ordered a GSO-10 before the closing date, but that has been it, I have been shy of ordering the seconds and Monday sales and UBs, etc. because I just don't feel comfortable tying up any more money. The starters gave a decent discount if you invested enough, but I think that the folk who placed later pre-orders one model at a time are in the best shape wait-time-wise, since they will have their knives showing up without having as much tied-up in the waiting at any given time. So if I were to give advice to people waiting to see what happens, it would be to keep it up :thumbup::) Wait until the reward is MUCH closer, unless the price difference of the wait really matters to you. That way, you can decide on whether or not the knife was really worth the money to you without having to decide if it was also really worth the wait ;)

And for those waiting (like me), it's going to be worth it, folks :D Come on, S!K !
 
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