Flu outbreak....

Yes, they are recommending oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) since the virus is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine. But I don't think they're substitutes for a vaccine.
 
skammer said:
No, you cant say that about every communicable disease, cold and flu viruses are more prone to mutation than most.
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Sure I can. Cold and flu viruses are simply more susceptible to mutation than many others.

skammer said:
I did answer and said symptomology is the same as regular flu but the death rates are vastly different depending on strain.
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I see. What is the difference in mortality between swine flu and seasonal flu?
 
I've always found it interesting that Spanish Influenza - The Flu strain from the 1918 epidemic - is now one of the more mild flu strains you can get....Just goes to show you that despite what some might believe, the human species will survive, and not just by hiding out in the mountains and shirking responsabilities. And I liked that he called the TV an idiot box, while extolling the virtues of "the net"....a place where any idiot with $9 for an internet connection or a library card can make up whatever statistics they want and have them posted for a world wide audience of likeminded idiots to disseminate as fact. Don't get me wrong here, I'm not calling you guys idiots, but if you want to talk about misinformation....well, let's just call a spade a spade.
 
skammer said:
We dont know yet.

For info on other non typical flu outbreaks I suggest you do some reading on your own Capt;) the links are posted.

skam
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Then how can you make ludicrous statements like this?

skammer said:
I did answer and said symptomology is the same as regular flu but the death rates are vastly different depending on strain.
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You say this flu is not comparable to seasonal flu.
I ask you why.
You say it is not comparable because of the difference mortality rates.
I ask you what the difference in mortality rates is.
You say you don't know.

You say this swine flu is not comparable to seasonal flu, but when pressed to support your statements you don't even know the information you claim is the distinguishing factor.

As of right now, I can tell you that the peak mortality rates for swine flu in frigging Mexico(roughly 4%) are less than the peak mortality rates for seasonal flu last year in the US (about 9%).

Now I think its clear who needs to do some reading before speaking.
 
MJF said:
I've always found it interesting that Spanish Influenza - The Flu strain from the 1918 epidemic - is now one of the more mild flu strains you can get....Just goes to show you that despite what some might believe, the human species will survive, and not just by hiding out in the mountains and shirking responsabilities.
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I think that what most, or at least some, of use are seeking here is information and understanding of what can, is likely to, and might happen. A situation like this can bve drastically oversimplified with statements such as 'the species will survive.'

Many of us have families and would dearly like for a bit more than species survival. This brings up what you call shurking of responsibilities. There are resonsibilities to self, family, nation, the public- these can conflict, or not apply, at many different levels.

Another complication comes from things like social breakdown. with a death toll currently nearly unmeasurable statistically over the population of Mexico City you have seen a near shutdown of much of the city, and I'd expect it would take only a single order of magnitude to a couple thousand deaths over the course of a few days to severely impact the functioning of the city infrastructure.

It's generally accepted that something around a 10% population loss due to a a disaster would cause most societies to break down to a large extent. We may be more resilient, but that's not a given. (Certainly, our regional separations and potential for local governmental power help, but again, still not a given.) So, what happens if Mexico sees a 5-10% overall population loss due to this flu and associated effects (police and sanitation not working, food trucks stop driving into mexico city or Tijuana, etc)? What happens if we start seeing deaths in the dozens, hundreds, or even thousands here?

Some relevant notes on the 1918 flu- at the high end of death estimates it killed 5% of the global population, and it is important to note that a large percentage of the US deaths were soliders in Europe at the time. Little details like that mean a lot when massaging statistics.

aside from pages like this posted yesterday:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm

I am not seeing a lot of reports from sources other than the standard AP and CDC feeds. I'm not trusting the official numbers right now, but I also think that the numbers currently aren't more than triple or quadruple official reports as yet. But it is hard to tell.
 
CaptInsano said:
As of right now, I can tell you that the peak mortality rates for swine flu in frigging Mexico(roughly 4%) are less than the peak mortality rates for seasonal flu last year in the US (about 9%).
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erm. I don't want to get too sidetracked, but the mortality rates for the seasonal flu in the US are ... not really the best data. I've been digging into it and we don't have the testing in place to really do more than guess. It's a bit tougher than it looks on the surface. (for example, it's generally a pnuemonia and influenze (P&I) that is reported, the CDC uses flu deaths and flu related deaths interchangeably in reports while recognizing the differences in the numbers, many reports are based purely on pediatric data, many flu cases are not reported and the estimation mechanisms are of debatable utility.)


At the same time, we don't have the best data for the swine flu, either.


Also: note that we are at the tail end of flu season, but NOT past it, yet. We sometimes see different annual strains being more or less infectious early and late in the season, and this could be really good timing (die out of the season and transmission) or really bad timing (surge of transmission and a flu that results in severe cytokine storms in persons with already elevated immune behaviours from late season illnesses)
 
koyote said:
erm. I don't want to get too sidetracked, but the mortality rates for the seasonal flu in the US are ... not really the best data. I've been digging into it and we don't have the testing in place to really do more than guess. It's a bit tougher than it looks on the surface. (for example, it's generally a pnuemonia and influenze (P&I) that is reported, the CDC uses flu deaths and flu related deaths interchangeably in reports while recognizing the differences in the numbers, many reports are based purely on pediatric data, many flu cases are not reported and the estimation mechanisms are of debatable utility.)


At the same time, we don't have the best data for the swine flu, either.
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That's why these deaths are examined together in the first place. :cool:
 
CaptInsano said:
As of right now, I can tell you that the peak mortality rates for swine flu in frigging Mexico(roughly 4%) are less than the peak mortality rates for seasonal flu last year in the US (about 9%).

Now I think its clear who needs to do some reading before speaking.
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LMAO.:D

As of right now you cant tell me anything because nobody knows, the situation is dynamic and changing minute to minute. I dont talk exact numbers as they are not accurate at this time. ITs too new. How is it you know the swine answers? The CDC should be contacted with your vital info. I think you should post your sources as they are so definitive.

Sounds like you have all the answers, from where? Pullem outa the air or did you take a calculator and call that factual with limited info?

Post your sources or its drivel.

Further more regarding reading comprehension I never said (this swine flu has x mortality rate) I said some non typical flu's have had a much higher rate and if this turns out to be of the same deadly type you cannot compare them.

ZZZZ :yawn: next subject

Skam
 
With any luck this will turn out to be far less than people are fearing right now. They're fearing it because it is getting so much press but, as several people have pointed out, we simply don't know yet how virulent it may turn out to be. I'm hoping for mild, for everyone's sake (and I don't want to spend any more time in the VA myself, thank you).
 
dawsonbob said:
With any luck this will turn out to be far less than people are fearing right now. They're fearing it because it is getting so much press but, as several people have pointed out, we simply don't know yet how virulent it may turn out to be. I'm hoping for mild, for everyone's sake (and I don't want to spend any more time in the VA myself, thank you).
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Good points,

going on the Press:rolleyes: this strain seems to be mild to this point, lets hope it doesnt change.

Skam
 
dawsonbob said:
With any luck this will turn out to be far less than people are fearing right now. They're fearing it because it is getting so much press but, as several people have pointed out, we simply don't know yet how virulent it may turn out to be. I'm hoping for mild, for everyone's sake (and I don't want to spend any more time in the VA myself, thank you).
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HA! The VA is the last place I want to end up for this one. The Mather office sucks dino gonads through a time warp. Though maybe it's time to make sure the steroid scrips are up to date.....


I'm much more concerned at this moment about side effects- what happens if the truckers stop trucking to mexico city? How many deaths would it take to shut down a significant amount of transportation in the US?
 
koyote said:
HA! The VA is the last place I want to end up for this one. The Mather office sucks dino gonads through a time warp. Though maybe it's time to make sure the steroid scrips are up to date.....


I'm much more concerned at this moment about side effects- what happens if the truckers stop trucking to mexico city? How many deaths would it take to shut down a significant amount of transportation in the US?
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For some of us the VA is the only choice. Fortunately, the VA here in San Diego is one of the better ones.

What would it take to shut down the trucking industry? That's an interesting question. I know that here in San Diego at the San Ysidro port of entry there are thousands of trucks crossing the border from Mexico every day. If they stop, what happens to the US trucking industry? My guess is that there would be very little produce (and other commodities) delivered in the US within three days. All the produce (and other commodities) that cross the border here are trans-shipped throughout the US by US truckers.
 
skammer said:
LMAO.:D

As of right now you cant tell me anything because nobody knows, the situation is dynamic and changing minute to minute. I dont talk exact numbers as they are not accurate at this time. ITs too new. How is it you know the swine answers? The CDC should be contacted with your vital info. I think you should post your sources as they are so definitive.

Sounds like you have all the answers, from where? Pullem outa the air or did you take a calculator and call that factual with limited info?

Post your sources or its drivel.

Further more regarding reading comprehension I never said (this swine flu has x mortality rate) I said some non typical flu's have had a much higher rate and if this turns out to be of the same deadly type you cannot compare them.

ZZZZ :yawn: next subject

Skam
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Why, I used the same data you used, of course. After I corrected the addition and allowed for the most recent sample size.
http://www.france24.com/en/20090426-death-toll-swine-flu-rises-81-mexico-
Now, You can get even more recent data, and that percentage could even get as high as 6%.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682/

Bare in mind that these mortality rates are linked only to similar symptoms rather than confirmed laboratory findings. The latest reports have only about a quarter to a third of these deaths being confirmed as infections with swine flu as opposed to any other flu related death.

In either scenario, the peak rates so far still fall under the peak rates of seasonal flu in the US last year. The comparison with tentative numbers concerning swine flu is pretty easy to make. I don't know why you are unable to extrapolate an idea of mortality rates from the data available simply because one is not pre-calculated and handed to you.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm



Now, in the near future the rate of infection with swine flu could very well increase, but the mortality rate is unlikely to change. More infections does not equate to more deaths until the services and equipment for the most critically ill patients becomes insufficient to support the case load. Since this strain shows no signs of being any more infectious than seasonal flu, its rate of infection is likely to peak in a similar fashion. This means the services and equipment on hand should be comparable to those needed for seasonal flu as well. There is also the fact that apparently there have been no deaths in the US associated with this outbreak despite 20 cases. There should have been at least one US death using the tentative mortality rate data. Unless there's another factor . . . like health care in Mexico vs health care in the US. So there are a few things still going on with these numbers; definitive laboratory confirmed diagnosis, Mexican vs US healthcare, and the short duration of the current sampling available. Judging by these factors, the mortality rate could easily be effectively even lower in the US than it is being presented for the strain at this point.


So I have no problem posting my sources. You posted your source as well, although it contained a glaring mathematical error that you were too excited to catch.


Somehow you feel you are free to make all these claims about how this strain isn't comparable to seasonal flu and whatnot, but whenever anyone disagrees with you the strain is too new to make any statements about. Don't you think that's interesting? Somehow you think making claims about differences between mortality rates makes sense when you don't know what the mortality rates are. Don't you think that's interesting? How is it that I know these things? I read. Remember what I just instructed you to do? Read? Go ahead and do it. Just because the links you posted were worthless to this end doesn't mean the information isn't there. ;)
 
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