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Off Topic Poll...What do you think UFO's are? <poll re-opened>

What do you believe the truly "unexplained" UFO's are?

  • Natural Phenomena <swamp gas, plasma discharge, stars, planets, etc.>

  • Otherworldly technology <ET's, Aliens, etc.>

  • Advanced U.S.A. Tech

  • Foreign Advanced Tech <the Russians, Chinese, Indians, etc.>

  • Supernatural / Interdimensional Phenomena

  • Ordinary / Known devices just being difficult to identify <civilian drones, weather balloons, etc.>

  • Deliberate hoaxing by gov't. or civvies


Results are only viewable after voting.

PeteyTwoPointOne

Platinum Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
7,206
Honestly, looking at it strictly from a mathematical/statistical approach, there is a 100% chance of life somewhere out there.
If there is even a 1% chance of life, we are looking at 10 mil planets with some type of life out of a trillion starts. Then say a 1% chance of intelligent life, you are looking at 100,000 civilizations. Say 1% make it past Fermi and beyond their nuclear age, you are looking at 1000 space faring civilizations. That’s out of just a trillion stars, the Milky Way has an estimated 100 thousand million stars. So just looking at the numbers, there is life out there other than us, no question about it.

Yup...sounds like the Drake Equation.

What's very sobering to me is that astrophysicists believe that the "birth rate" of stars is declining whilst the "death rate" climbs.

Combine that with the fact that most star systems, galaxies, local groups, and superclusters, to begin with, are immensely distant and very quickly expanding away from us at the same time-- it makes for a very daunting limiting factor that we may never surmount to find another civilization unless a quantum change is discovered on our current technology tree. Perhaps something like warping space time could bridge those gaps, perhaps.

Short of that, it's my personal belief our only shot at "contact" is if "they" initiate the contact with us via some sort of ultra-superior tech.
 

not2sharp

Platinum Member
Joined
Jun 29, 1999
Messages
19,189
.....Short of that, it's my personal belief our only shot at "contact" is if "they" initiate the contact with us via some sort of ultra-superior tech.

Which leaves that possibility within the realm of fantasy at this time.

But, more to the point, it would be impossible to cap information on such an encounter. The space faring race, the one with the vastly superior technology, would be drawn to us like someone dying of thirst to a desert oasis. Exploration and exploitation would be the driving force, not some kind of corny pilfering of livestock or molestation of drunkards on back roads. If such a chance encounter were to happen our newly found neighbors would be dancing in the isles and making a spectacle of themselves.

n2s
 
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
2,500
Yup...sounds like the Drake Equation.

What's very sobering to me is that astrophysicists believe that the "birth rate" of stars is declining whilst the "death rate" climbs.

Combine that with the fact that most star systems, galaxies, local groups, and superclusters, to begin with, are immensely distant and very quickly expanding away from us at the same time-- it makes for a very daunting limiting factor that we may never surmount to find another civilization unless a quantum change is discovered on our current technology tree. Perhaps something like warping space time could bridge those gaps, perhaps.

Short of that, it's my personal belief our only shot at "contact" is if "they" initiate the contact with us via some sort of ultra-superior tech.
I think our space tech would be so much further along if they hadn’t neutered our space program back in the 70s. Can you imagine where we would be if they had kept the same moon push going? Or if they had allowed private industry get involved like we have with SpaceX now? We wasted almost 1/2 a century of advancement (unless we were told by another species to stop 🤔). I feel that if the gov was going to stop the push it should have immediately been given to the private sector to push the exploration.
All I know is that if Space Fleet had been a real thing in my lifetime, my life choices would have been very different.
But I think our best bet for space exploration now is possibly pairing an uploaded consciousness with an AI and the ability to 3D print at the atomic level to allow for those exploration craft to be able to travel those distances and begin basic prep for colonists (mining asteroids, creating habitats, terraforming, etc). Self replication would be the key
 

Busto

Knifemaker / Craftsman / Service Provider
Joined
Jul 26, 2011
Messages
4,128
I think our space tech would be so much further along if they hadn’t neutered our space program back in the 70s. Can you imagine where we would be if they had kept the same moon push going? Or if they had allowed private industry get involved like we have with SpaceX now? We wasted almost 1/2 a century of advancement (unless we were told by another species to stop 🤔). I feel that if the gov was going to stop the push it should have immediately been given to the private sector to push the exploration.
All I know is that if Space Fleet had been a real thing in my lifetime, my life choices would have been very different.
But I think our best bet for space exploration now is possibly pairing an uploaded consciousness with an AI and the ability to 3D print at the atomic level to allow for those exploration craft to be able to travel those distances and begin basic prep for colonists (mining asteroids, creating habitats, terraforming, etc). Self replication would be the key
The General public lost interest...The "Space Race" with the Soviet Union was over. NASA realized that "LEO" low earth orbit with a space station was the gateway to deep space exploration, and a possible Moon Base. The Price to launch a Pound of Material into space needed to be Reduced from Tens of thousands of dollars to Hundreds of dollars. Private Industry has always been involved Rockwell/Boeing used sub contractors to manufacturer all the Space Shuttle Parts and Equipment. It was NASA's Job to Maintain and Fly the Orbiters. Human Space Flight is neither Cheap or Easy ask Elon Musk how much money went down the drain during initial testing and failed catastrophic early launches!! The Shuttle was the most Complicated Piece of Equipment ever built by Man.
 
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
2,500
The General public lost interest...The "Space Race" with the Soviet Union was over. NASA realized that "LEO" low earth orbit with a space station was the gateway to deep space exploration, and a possible Moon Base. The Price to launch a Pound of Material into space needed to be Reduced from Tens of thousands of dollars to Hundreds of dollars. Private Industry has always been involved Rockwell/Boeing used sub contractors to manufacturer all the Space Shuttle Parts and Equipment. It was NASA's Job to Maintain and Fly the Orbiters. Human Space Flight is neither Cheap or Easy ask Elon Musk how much money went down the drain during initial testing and failed catastrophic early launches!! The Shuttle was the most Complicated Piece of Equipment ever built by Man.
Agreed. But I def think these private companies can see that if they are able to get to any of these asteroids, some of them have a value greater than the entire GDP of the entire world. So once they get the designs down, are able to reliably reuse things, costs to operate will also go down. Private sector is what will really drive this.
 

Busto

Knifemaker / Craftsman / Service Provider
Joined
Jul 26, 2011
Messages
4,128
Agreed. But I def think these private companies can see that if they are able to get to any of these asteroids, some of them have a value greater than the entire GDP of the entire world. So once they get the designs down, are able to reliably reuse things, costs to operate will also go down. Private sector is what will really drive this.
I know of 2 private companies with pockets deep enough to try....Blue Origin owned by Jeff Bezos (Amazon) Richest man around and Space X owned by Elon Musk. Both companies compete for FEDERAL monies to pay the bills. Neither are close enough money wise to attempt anything beyond resupplying the space station let alone being granted Federal Government Permission to attempt a Moon Landing....NASA still controls who can do what when it comes to Space Exploration from the United States...If you think it's easy why haven't the Russians or Chinese successfully launched and Landed a person on the Moon or any asteroid. I retired from NASA and I can tell you it Ain't an Easy Business. Understand the Ramifications of loss of Human Life due to Catastrophic Failure...We've Seen it. An astronaut once told me being strapped to the largest bomb launched into space makes you pee your pants on Liftoff!!!
 
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
2,500
I know of 2 private companies with pockets deep enough to try....Blue Origin owned by Jeff Bezos (Amazon) Richest man around and Space X owned by Elon Musk. Both companies compete for FEDERAL monies to pay the bills. Neither are close enough money wise to attempt anything beyond resupplying the space station let alone being granted Federal Government Permission to attempt a Moon Landing....NASA still controls who can do what when it comes to Space Exploration from the United States...If you think it's easy why haven't the Russians or Chinese successfully launched and Landed a person on the Moon or any asteroid. I retired from NASA and I can tell you it Ain't an Easy Business. Understand the Ramifications of loss of Human Life due to Catastrophic Failure...We've Seen it. An astronaut once told me being strapped to the largest bomb launched into space makes you pee your pants on Liftoff!!!
I was able to spend some time at NASA while spending some time with a 3 letter agency and it was really cool being over there and talking to people (and I had a great uncle that was part of the team building the moon rover). I just look back and wonder how much further along we would be if we hadn’t slowed down that race. And yea it was never going to be easy, but if we fear any loss of life and we let that fear hobble us, it will be much harder for us to push to that frontier.
 

Busto

Knifemaker / Craftsman / Service Provider
Joined
Jul 26, 2011
Messages
4,128
but if we fear any loss of life and we let that fear hobble us, it will be much harder for us to push to that frontier.
This is where the term "Acceptable Risk" comes into play. Astronauts understand the Risks, most are recruited from the military, and they have chosen to accept the dangers associated with Human Space Flight. The Government will remain the largest hurdle to reach those frontiers because they control the "Rules" and the money.
 

shunsui

Gold Member
Joined
Aug 12, 2008
Messages
5,551
We didn't do too bad. We did give up driving around in our moon buggy, but we got a lot of mileage from the shuttle program, and the big payoff was the robotic, unmanned space probes that went all over the solar system. A lot more bang for the buck than hitting a golf ball on the moon.

 
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PeteyTwoPointOne

Platinum Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
7,206
"For your consideration:"

1. The U.S. Navy for the first time EVER has officially confirmed there's something "unknown" flying around our troops and military assets.

2. These confirmed sightings are not only visual, but electronic-- from multiple sensors.

3. A report to congress about these objects is due to be disclosed this month to Congress.

4. The story still barely breaks into the news cycle....wow, smh.

I used to think Idiocracy was comedy-- now I see it was prophecy.

 
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