- Jun 10, 2014
Honestly, looking at it strictly from a mathematical/statistical approach, there is a 100% chance of life somewhere out there.
If there is even a 1% chance of life, we are looking at 10 mil planets with some type of life out of a trillion starts. Then say a 1% chance of intelligent life, you are looking at 100,000 civilizations. Say 1% make it past Fermi and beyond their nuclear age, you are looking at 1000 space faring civilizations. That’s out of just a trillion stars, the Milky Way has an estimated 100 thousand million stars. So just looking at the numbers, there is life out there other than us, no question about it.
Yup...sounds like the Drake Equation.
What's very sobering to me is that astrophysicists believe that the "birth rate" of stars is declining whilst the "death rate" climbs.
Combine that with the fact that most star systems, galaxies, local groups, and superclusters, to begin with, are immensely distant and very quickly expanding away from us at the same time-- it makes for a very daunting limiting factor that we may never surmount to find another civilization unless a quantum change is discovered on our current technology tree. Perhaps something like warping space time could bridge those gaps, perhaps.
Short of that, it's my personal belief our only shot at "contact" is if "they" initiate the contact with us via some sort of ultra-superior tech.