What is reasonable and legal?

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Skystorm said:
Alot of people seem to hinge on the good guy bad guy issue. Lots of business' have found themselves way down the rabbit hole and it had nothing to do with whether they were a solid stand up person or not.
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As far as intentions go, I have complete confidence that the company and the owners are solid. But, the issue that you describe is the one most worrisome to me, and as you say, has nothing IMO to do in this case with good guy/bad guy. I chose to go in on the starter program and assume the risk on a few blades because I wanted to see this company, made up of quality people as I see it, get settled out here in my neck of the woods. I was happy to assume that risk for the starter program, but won't continually purchase from the company that way because, well, it's a starter program.

But the starter/preorder system is not the only way to purchase direct. The company has implemented a Monday sales program where delivery recently has ranged between 2 to 4 weeks from purchase date. Ordering blades on Mondays has been a pretty fulfilling short-term buying strategy. There is really no reason for a buyer that doesn't want to commit to the preorder system to feel like that is the only way to nail down a GSO. If you're not ready for a long wait, by all means, stay away from the preorders.

As far as being able to get ahold of one of their blades, I have pursued them fairly hard for about 13 months. In that time I have purchased five GSOs, four of them straight from the company, a 3.5 and 3 x new model 5.1s. It is not easy, but can be done if a person wants to set in to do it. Many don't. The knives themselves are the finest fit/finished and sharpest out-of-the-box production blades I've had the pleasure to own.

I think the OP would be best served by simply contacting the company directly and asking for a refund. Call the shop, I'll bet it gets done.
 
I have over a grand invested via. "pre orders". I have already made a self commitment to wait one, even one and half years which I know is way beyond what most would tolerate.
But extrapolating FUTURE lead-times based off past performance just does not bode well for me and looks to be putting me more in the 2 to 3 year wait time. I have a collection of these Knives I purchased through starter, Seconds, and Ebay. So I have done it all. The 2nds and Monday Sales are historically a lottery system where they sell out within seconds- so that is not a reliable source for assurance of getting one. Ebay is a about a 50% markup IF/When you can find one as well. The Pre order is the only "guarantee" you will get what you want at retail price. The "catch" is you have to pay 100% up front and the lead-time is well over a year and still not locked down.

I asked for a lead-time but was not given one, this company provides no lead-times, not even ballpark figures but rather a general "order of production" which (unfortunately) is meaningless without consistency in lead-times. So really the only lead-time is to look at historic past perfomance. And looking at Historic performance it's clear lead-times have been growing exponentially longer and still not stabilized. My point is not to complain or cast dispersion's As a previous poster stated, it has nothing to do with god or bad people- rather runaway lead-times and what should be considered as to what risk is worth taking on... and what is the norm in the industry. This company has an incredibly fierce and devoted following so I had to come here to get outside unbiased input.

Requesting a Refund on (some) of my outstanding orders is what I am considering. but it's not simply about how much I can bear to wait - but trying to weigh the very REAL risks that things can happen in 2,3 years lead-times to even the most honorable best intending businesses. Also while I am glad to hear a most recent customer was able to get a refund no problem I am concerned about a possible future domino effect where multiple people start wanting their money back when even die-hard fans can't sustain year+ lead times.

So my overall question is(was), have any of you veteran knife collectors know of past company's where a similiar situation has happened that went south and should I have reason to worry - to the point I should bail out NOW.. and not take the risk. A number of you have weighed in on this for me.. and I appreciate and thank you.
 
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mlmcasual said:
The 2nds and Monday Sales are historically a lottery system where they sell out within seconds- so that is not a reliable source for assurance of getting one.
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This is simply not true, sir. It is in no way a lottery system to purchase a knife from the company on a Monday sale. Two of those 5.1s I mentioned were purchased in that manner and have been delivered. It is a matter of taking the time to follow the production schedule very, very diligently for updates between Sunday evenings and Monday evenings to see when the sale will be held. And then you have to be ready to go at sale time. To say they sell out in seconds is an over-exaggeration. Factory second GSO 4.7s in 20CV were available for about a half an hour on the last sale. As I said, many don't want to do this. I am about the least 'techy' guy in the world. If I can accomplish this the rest of the community should have no problem. :)


So my overall question is(was), have any of you veteran knife collectors know of past company's where a similiar situation has happened that went south and should I have reason to worry - to the point I should bail out NOW.. and not take the risk. A number of you have weighed in on this for me.. and I appreciate and thank you.
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Hard Knocks said:
I think the OP would be best served by simply contacting the company directly and asking for a refund. Call the shop, I'll bet it gets done.
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In case you think I skipped over your question, 'should I bail out NOW', the answer is yes. You are a customer. You are unhappy. Make the decision to call the shop and get it done and you will feel much better. Good luck sir.
 
Hard Knocks said:
This is simply not true, sir. It is in no way a lottery system to purchase a knife from the company on a Monday sale. Two of those 5.1s I mentioned were purchased in that manner and have been delivered. It is a matter of taking the time to follow the production schedule very, very diligently for updates between Sunday evenings and Monday evenings to see when the sale will be held. And then you have to be ready to go at sale time. To say they sell out in seconds is an over-exaggeration. Factory second GSO 4.7s in 20CV were available for about a half an hour on the last sale. As I said, many don't want to do this. I am about the least 'techy' guy in the world. If I can accomplish this the rest of the community should have no problem. :)






In case you think I skipped over your question, 'should I bail out NOW', the answer is yes. You are a customer. You are unhappy. Make the decision to call the shop and get it done and you will feel much better. Good luck sir.
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Well, I have to disagree... and stick by calling it a lottery..
The 3V knives which is the one everyone is after get sold out in seconds.
It historically been a "lottery" on the Monday USUALLY selling out in seconds for for years and why I would call it a "lottery". And yes I too have been follwing SK for years.
 
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Some companies release a knife and it isngone within 5 minutes, we're talking 500 pieces, 30 minutes in my mind is not too much of a difference. The physical differences come by way of business infrastructure. Multiple phone lines to handle orders, an online ordering system with real inventory tracking helps. In other words 30 minutes for a mom and pop shop is more similar than not when comparing 5 minutes to a Kershaw or Spyderco sized company.
 
mlmcasual said:
Well, I have to disagree... and stick by calling it a lottery..
The 3V knives which is the one everyone is after get sold out in seconds.
It historically been a "lottery" on the Monday USUALLY selling out in seconds for for years and why I would call it a "lottery". And yes I too have been follwing SK for years.
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mlm, you described the survive following as 'fierce' and 'devoted.' Hopefully I am coming across as the latter, and not the former. Internet-speak can be difficult to convey inflection, so I want to assure you that I am in no way trying to be condescending. From what I can gather, you have been following the company longer than me. I just want to make sure the correct information is being presented here.

Here is the timestamp from my order of April 4th 2016:

Order #8414. Order Date: Apr 4th 2016 @ 5:17 PM

On that sale I purchased two factory second new model GSO 5.1s in 3V steel at 17 minutes into the sale.

I hope you get this resolved to your satisfaction, and very sincerely wish you the best in that resolution.
 
Survive is a house of cards. If $1k is more than you're willing to risk then I'd get out. If not settle in and hope for the best. You may end up with some nice knives.
 
ElConquistador said:
Survive is a house of cards. If $1k is more than you're willing to risk then I'd get out. If not settle in and hope for the best. You may end up with some nice knives.
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The house of cards is a formidable, possibly accurate description, and I continue to hold my breath as to which way those cards might stand or fall.
 
I have no doubt the company/owner is legit and well intentioned.
Three things have concerned me... Health, Finances, and Accountability.

1) Health.. The whole operation literally hinges on ONE person who does the finish grinds and has made the knives what they are. Without him, SK is no more. So that means anything that happens to him- health wise.. the GIG is over. And MY concern is, if that happened I am doubtful SK! could issue ALL refunds for 1+ years worth of purchases.. IT would be like a run on the bank... and they would just be force to file Chapter 7.

2) My second concern is the companies finances. As part of a small business for 25 years I know credit is what KILLS. If you can't run a company in the Black- on a cash basis after several years (SK has been in business for years now) odds are VERY much against you. You can paint a pig anyway you like it but taking prepayment for years is DEBT.. plain and simple. That money is not in some separate account, that money is putting food on the table, buying equipment, etc. It's one thing to manage pre-payment for a month(s).. it's a whole other to manage prepayment for years. Public/Prive Credit, Vestors, etc is a necessary part of starting and growing a small business- but it all hinges on ramping up production, demand, and ultimately profit. Ever increasing lead times and taking Eight months and still counting to release just ONE model of production knife when you have NINE (YES NINE) pre paid production knives waiting thier turn IMO does not bode well for stable finances.

3) Third and lastly, my concern has been over accountability. If SK had a small business loan, they would present a business model to the bank and the bank would only loan what the bank believed was viable. But differing SK! business loan to a zero interest no time repayment loan to the end customers eliminates accountability and incentive to fully know the company BOOKS and REAL production schedules. The ideal of "preordering" for SK! is the material has to be purchased in bulk so getting customers to pay up front differs ALL the risk and accountability from SK and shifts it to the customer. That is great for efficiency and a win-win for SK! but it is at the risk of the customer as they have zero idea of when enough preorders gets met to buy the materials. It's like a Kick starter but without the customer protections of kickstarter where you don't pay up front. To be fair, most customers understand and have accepted this zero interest zero time guarantee small business loan model for the sake of sake of helping SK out.. but with that generosity should come responsibility. And THAT is my third concern.. there is a lack of accountability and responsibility to deliver pre-paid items in a REASONABLE time frame. What is reasonable? - by most metrics and SK! own past statement, a year and inside would be consider reasonable. SK! though has grown WELL Beyond a year now. and it's current~past trajectory puts it much longer then a year.. That is not sustainable. It is not sustainable from a Logical, business, or Fairness perspective. This third concern of mine would have been nullified had SK! leadtimes stabilized. But they have not, they have grown much longer and continue to do so. The lack of stability in lead-times is absolute evidence that cuts like a knife through all words, BS, fanboyism, promises, intentions, hopes and dreams.

From a small business's perspective... a zero interest, zero guarantee repayment time frame crowdsourced business loan sounds too good to be true. And unless that repayment timeframe stabilizes, it is.
 
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That is the problem. There is no definitive time. No small business sets out to fail. At what point does a business's debt make it unsustainable? How much debt does a business carry before it fails? two years, five years, 10 years? It varies. But one thing is certain- NO small business can sustain growing debt indefinite. And you can call it anything you want, play shell games in terminology but growing product lead-times for undelivered cash up front is growing DEBT. PERIOD
Money or product you owe for money or product you already took is DEBT.. PERIOD.
 
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The quoted 2+ years lead time is purely speculative. The said company has never stated anywhere (that I am aware of) quantifying that kind of lead time frame. People who participate on that sub-forum have come up with that sort of estimate based on their own past experiences. If you are a believer in, "past performances being a very good indicator of the future performances" then you ought to consider seeking refund(s). It is not a secret that one or two of their preorder models may very well end up having a waiting time period leading up the fulfillment in excess of 18 months (again, my own speculation).

To the couple of people on here (not the OP) who have chimed in with such grandiose statements such as, "you are now an investor", please get real! The reality is this: whether your skin in the game is waiting for 1 preorder or 20+ units on preorder, you are just a customer who has paid upfront. The knives you are getting or going to be getting from that company is easily underpriced by at least 30%. The proof being what these knives are selling for right here on the Exchange, on eBay (by about 50% increase as compared to list prices) and also as compared to what another equally well respected baldesmith with very similar high quality knives sells his merchandise on here in a matter of seconds (and he is underpriced too, but not by as much as the other).

If this post is going to ruffle some feathers, then good! It is meant to. What I have stated to the best of my knowledge is factual and I am not white knighting. I also have skin in the game and will be adding some more so if they go belly-up, I will also lose but that was a risk which I was willing to take at the time of when my own preorders were placed.

Lastly, their Monday Sales are NOT based on a lottery system, just like the other maker's Friday sales are no lottery. It is called first come, first served and when the quantity is low, this method obviously takes a very fast trigger finger and almost a troll like attitude in order to land one of those. It is not for everyone and I understand. Those who do not like this system can easily seek those knives on the Exchange and acquire them by paying the seller's premium.

As a friend of mine on here reminded me a couple of weeks ago, us knife buffs always want our knives as high quality s possible, as inexpensive as possible and as fast as possible. Welp, with this Co, you can only have 2 out of the 3 for now.
 
By doing the math, the most recent model is at eight months for just that Model which still hasn't finished.. The model model before that was 5 months.. before that, it was 4.
This is not a trend that has been happening over months but for years in a company that has been in business for years. If I was to actually extrapolate lead times on later preorders- you would be talking 8+ years! which is obviously not remotely possible and for them to still in business. So it's absurdly obvious SOMETHING has to give. Either the trajectory of the Years performance has to radically change or.. yes, you and I will be out of our skin in the game. Actually It's because of the skin in the game we can become biased. That's why I was looking for non skin in the game, non loyalists/fans to see if there have been other cases where this has turned around or I should bail. I want nothing more then for this to turn around. And my skin in the game means it's not just a matter of hey, give me a refund.. It would have been that simple at several months vested in but not at 14 months.
 
And my skin in the game means it's not just a matter of hey, give me a refund.. It would have been that simple at several months vested in but not at 14 months.
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No matter what you feel is simple, just or what not, your recourse option still remain a refund.

I've got to tell you that after reading what HK posted above me plus your own quote, it now seems to me that you have an axe to grind because somehow you feel entitled to more. It definitely come across that way.
 
Casinostocks said:
No matter what you feel is simple, just or what not, your recourse option still remain a refund.

I've got to tell you that after reading what HK posted above me plus your own quote, it now seems to me that you have an axe to grind because somehow you feel entitled to more. It definitely come across that way.
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Well, I don't mean to come off entitled. I don't mean to jump line, or expect to get something I have not earned or have not paid for with either time or money. I have vested both time and money so am as vested as anybody else in the long term outlook and possibilities.

I buy from other manufactures as well.. and looking at other manufactures / makers for long term custom buys.
No axe to grind, looking at long term possibilities, scenarios, best, worst case scenarios. I'd like to keep my brand loyalty and business sense and personal finances separate. I am interested fully in what various makers do for business models. And I really do appreciate and respect manufactures commitment to superior product. These, are all just separate issues in my mind.
 
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I think you have made the case to yourself already that the "Survive! Model" is not for you. There seems no secret about their process (or in some ways the lack of) so for you the decision seems easy now as nothing is probably going to change any time soon. You probably just need to ask for your refund that will in all likelihood be forthcoming and move on.

Survive! have a strong customer base and excellent product, both should see them do OK, their main issue seems to be bringing the product to the market in an "acceptable" (open to interpretation by the individual) amount of time. I would not personally be comfortable pre-paying for a knife not even close to manufacture, so clearly I would not be putting my $s up to support their possibly fragile business model. If I really wanted one of their blades now I would chase a release or pay the premium on the second party market.

I do suspect they will do just fine in the long run but an individuals risk tolerance is all their own.
 
Your right, the SK model in the long term outlook is not for me. and actually I have just canceled plans for buying more now and in the future on the preorder model and am going to get a refund on a model 10 preorder.
So Really, the remaining sticking point is to call in some models already in production like the gso7 or just wait it out since im already 14 months vested.
All is not lost.. Chasing monday orders or ebay is still doable and at least there you know what you are getting into.
 
Is the person named "Guy" at Survive Knives the same one that runs the Bushcraft USA forums? Anyone know?
 
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