Kevin,
You don't get tit both ways. You can't discount someones analysis because it doesnt match yours.
Anthony went to Ebay and came back with some interesting statistics. You say they are of no consequence because people sell less expensive knives on Ebay?
Les don't you agree that in any class of items on ebay there are many more of the lessor priced listed than higher priced items? And there are many more buyers for the lower price than the higher priced items?
Of course if the numbers were flip flopped you would have said...See this proves my point.
Those numbers would never be filpped because it's eBay.
Like the auction last year in Chicago you were talking some of the prices that the forged blades brought. Then I countered with a couple of the Morans and Board knife did not even meet their reserve. Again, you have to take all information into account...not just what you want to hear.
Don't know what you are referring to. The Chicago Show was a while back.
All the top makers did not sell out at the Reno Show. What does this indicate to you with regards to the forged blade? My understanding is that there were a lot of knives left for sale at the end of the show...what does this mean.
IMO, it's rare occurrence when All the top makers sell out at a show? And I would have been very surprised to see ALL makers sell out at a new format one day show. I doubt if ALL makers have sold out in any Reno show. You should go, then you don't have to depend on what you hear.
To me it means it is a regular show....Some will sell out, some will sell most and some will sell nothing. Happens at every show except for the AKI.
I totally agree as stated above.
Your answer to the Recession question was interesting. Now lets refine that question by comparing apples to apples. Not apples to oranges. (knives to cars).
The cars are viewed by most as not only collectibles but investments. There are reams and reams of information on such things as Population reports, buy sell spreads, percentage increase in value over time, who has what cars in his or her collections. Lots of public knowledge.
This is not the case with custom knives. Most collectors don't view them as investments. Nor are their population reports, public knowledge over who has what knife and what they paid for it, etc.
You are repeating what I have already said earlier in this thread. We basically have no data in the custom knife industry, so we are fortunate to have experts such as you to depend on for information. However as to my original POINT that started ALL this is that when stating the figures/percentages/information, IMO it's necessary for the expert to communicate that their information is based on experience and knowledge not actual data.
So lets stick to just custom knives.
How will the recession affect custom knife sales?
Already given my opinion on how if will affect upper end knives. IMO, it will have a slight negative impact. I will leave it to you to address the other categories.
Oh, still waiting on the reams and reams of statistical analysis proving your percentage.
Already answered that. In that my percentage was backed by my knowledge and opinion only, not statistical analysis. As you stated (as you often do) the 90% as fact, then you owe the supporting data, not I.
Last. my comment about the new customer cost 20 times more than keeping one. If you were to enroll in a graduate level Marketing level class. Like those found in an MBA program you would hear those numbers again. Just like it takes a minimum of 5 times putting a product in front of a client for them to notice it. These numbers were produced by reams and reams of research.
Truthful general business information, but not necessarily 100% relevant to custom knife customer or the custom knife industry. As you know, Les I have a business background too.
Kevin if you are going to impune my numbers because they lack statistical proof and are based solely on my experience with the world wide market that makes up custom knives. With your level of experience how do you expect me to take anything you have to say about knives outside the world of "if it isn't beat with a hammer I don't want it" seriously.
Again Les, getting tired of saying this, I usually agree with most you have to say as I commented earlier in this thread. I'm just saying many times your numbers do lack the statistical proof and are based on your expertise. My beat with a hammer comment is just for fun, I will remove it folks are taking it too serious. You know I bought or attempted to buy a Loveless Chute Knife recently and also a nice STeve Johnson
Les Robertson
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
LOL
