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The BladeForums.com 2024 Traditional Knife is ready to order! See this thread for details: https://www.bladeforums.com/threads/bladeforums-2024-traditional-knife.2003187/
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Bad Survive! Deserves A Permanent Post In The Hall Of Shame
- Thread starter ncrockclimb
- Start date
The quality of "his" work? All he does is bolt handles to blade blanks made by others. He probably doesn't even cut the handle scales himself, and we all know that he doesn't make the sheaths, soooooo.....what exactly is the "quality" you speak of? Many of us in here slamming this scumbag HAVE owned his knives. I have owned multiple Scammer!Knives and can unequivocally state that there's nothing special about them. Like others, I sold mine when I realized the extent of this scumbag's fraudulent business practices. The knives? For one thing, they're heavier than many other knives in their same size, and while the edges were decent, a decent edge only lasts as long as the first session of any real use. Then you're sharpening the knife, and realize it's just another tool made of three parts that isn't any better than others on the market. Plus, I actually laughed at your recounting his comments about the GSO 10 and 12s. Know why he doesn't want to make them, or why he'd lose money? It's crystal clear what happened. He took the money he was paid for those knives, and used it for his personal bills, vacations, and a long series of idiotic relocation moves, instead of ordering the blades from whoever (at the time) was providing his blades. Then, years later when he probably reached back out to them, and discovered that the order would be a lot more expensive (as things tend to be as time goes on), he realized he wasn't going to be able to make a huge profit off these knives, so he didn't make them. As stated, since he doesn't actually make any knives, his statement that they're "too difficult to make" is an entirely fabricated excuse. TOPS sure doesn't seem to have any issues churning thousands and thousands of blade out in that size, neither does CPK, Becker, etc., sooooooo....what's his damage?You can call me a shill for trying to be balanced on this issue and I will not take offense because: 1. You don't know me. 2. Even if you did, I am at the point in my life where I'm past worrying about what ankle biters think of me. So there's that.
I own four Survive knives that were produced in the past year. I purchased one from Survive and the rest were purchased from a click-and-mortar store. I did have an order for a GSO 5.1 in Magnacut but cancelled it and received a refund. From the advice of others who posted here, I went through my credit card company to get the refund.
I can say the quality of his work is outstanding, it just is. When I compare his work against some highly respected knife makers here on BF, or from other larger makers in my collection, I am very impressed. But none of that matters because of the extensive backlog he has allowed to build. And his lack of concern with getting his oldest orders completed is arrogance to the nth degree. He reminds me of these characters you see in movies who are gifted but lack any empathy for others. He justifies this because "they will see the value in the end." I've listened to him talk about the GSO 10 and 12 blades. The reason it is taking so long to get them done is because they are difficult to make and he doesn't want to spend the time to get them done. He has mentioned that he charged too little for them and continued work on them just means more money lost. That's his problem and he should not be making his customers wait because he doesn't want to eat the cost.
As far as the latest issue about the voids and inclusions in the knife, I think NSM could be making the steel in a way that introduces the problems. I've worked in other industries where everyone is pushed to get some product delivered. People will start taking shortcuts to get there, especially if there is a huge financial incentive. Maybe that has happened here. And the fact that other knifemakers haven't said anything doesn't disprove his arguments. These manufacturers who have to work with NSM because they are not big enough to work directly with CPM may be getting batches of steel that are kind of dodgy too. Because most of their steel comes from CPM/NSM, they can't afford to get on their bad side. But Guy could be lying about this too. His credibility is about as good as the sh!t in my septic tank right now.
Anyway, this is why he hasn't bothered making any of those knives from several years ago either. That money is long gone, and he'd have to sell the knife with $100 or more tacked onto the original price just to break even at this point. I don't know anyone who'd be fine with being contacted years after the fact about their "preorder" and told "Oh, sorry, it's also going to be like $450 now, sorry bro!" Hell, I remember when his knives were under $200, in fact. The 4.5 I had was something like $178, for CRU Forge V or whatever it was at the time. Decent knife, but heavy and thick. CPK's Field Knife 2 kicked the everloving crap out of that knife in every single metric, plus the fact that CPK isn't run by scumbag scammers like Guy and Ellie was a tremendous bonus.
Glad to see at the end of your post that you've joined us on this side of things.
P.S. Your supposition about NSM is frankly, nonsense. I mean, is that really your idea? That it's possible that there are a bunch of other companies out there who just "won't speak up"? Really? LMAOOOO Wow.
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This right here is proof that he's never going to be able to complete those knives, because what he charged someone in 2015-2019, almost certainly won't even allow him to get the blanks, handle scales, sheaths and hardware ordered and delivered. He'd sell every one of those knives at a loss in 2024. Of course, we all know this is entirely irrelevant since A. that money was spent long ago on his personal situation, and B. he can't even make the knives people ordered because they ordered them in steel(s) that he no longer has access to, and C. he is broke, and can't afford to refund those people so it looks like his plan is just to hope it all goes away and none of those people demand their knife or money. Hell, 2015? That was nine(!) years ago.After almost 4 months, Survive posted an update. Based on all of the videos of production, you would have been under the impression that a lot of orders were going out. But the percentages have not really moved.
2019 and older orders have come to a complete halt.
2015: 0.0% in 4 months
2016: 0.0% in 4 months
2017: 0.0% in 4 months
2018: Complete
2019: 0.0% in 4 months
2020: 0.5% in 4 months
2021: 1.3% in 4 months
2022: 2.4% in 4 months
2023: 2.9% in 4 months
*Now that we know that Survive! counts refunded orders as "Complete", we can't tell how much progress they actually make on older orders.
All in all, it has always amazed me that they put this chart out themselves, and continued to post "updated" versions that showed that no work was done on those old preorders, while he kept chugging along with new design announcements and taking preorders for them. Straight fraud. I hope the lawyers for these companies he's trying to slander finish him and his garbage little ponzi scheme once and for all. Good luck getting a job that brought in that sort of money ever again, Guy!
Edited to add for those who may be recently joining us and not having seen it: Guy admitted in the comments of one of his videos that he considered a paid-out refund to be a "completed order", which would explain any completion percentages ticking up for those several year old orders. I would wager dude hasn't made a single knife for any of the orders from those years.
After almost 4 months, Survive posted an update. Based on all of the videos of production, you would have been under the impression that a lot of orders were going out. But the percentages have not really moved.
2019 and older orders have come to a complete halt.
2015: 0.0% in 4 months
2016: 0.0% in 4 months
2017: 0.0% in 4 months
2018: Complete
2019: 0.0% in 4 months
2020: 0.5% in 4 months
2021: 1.3% in 4 months
2022: 2.4% in 4 months
2023: 2.9% in 4 months
*Now that we know that Survive! counts refunded orders as "Complete", we can't tell how much progress they actually make on older orders.
Is there an actual blade count and total dollar value somewhere of the unfilled orders?
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I think you and I disagree on his path forward:
1) return money
2) go work for someone else
*end specific response, move on to general remarks*
There’s a host of reasons why Guy is in his current predicament, but I’ll limit it to three.
1) trying to undercut competitors with “high value” knives, not leaving enough margin for error in cost or production.
(Let’s not forget that keeping prices down isn’t a charitable thing Guy is doing- it’s in his best interest, so he can sell more knives.)
2) not knowing enough about manufacturing to understand risks
(His fault? Someone else’s fault? Doesn’t matter- not the customer’s problem)
3) decades of using up-front preorders as the capital for production.
(Instead of putting his own money on the line, the man has gambled other people’s money on his business and lost it.)
If it was just the first two issues, well… tough luck, good try. Knife production isn’t for everyone. The 3rd was his weasel-method for getting other people to unwittingly finance his production.
Guy leaving steaming piles on the doorsteps of reputable companies is just an indicator that the end is near. And I love it. Just watch the rest of the industry band together to give S!K the most polite “screw you” send off you’ve ever seen. (Thanks for the video,
Blues
)
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I have a slightly different take. I think Guy believes Preorders are a legitimate business strategy. Guy has no problem letting other people front the money for his endeavor. I think Guy is stupid enough to believe the risks of his preorders falling through could be assumed by other companies. I think Guy honestly believes he’ll work his way out of this, and I think he’s too arrogant to see the writing has been on the wall for years. I think he thinks that production update data sheet is going to help in the long run.
Unpopular opinion: I honestly don’t know how much I believe Guy is an intentional fraudster. I think he’s an unbelievable idiot of the highest order who’s Mr. Magoo’ed his way into a knife business, which he has mismanaged and bungled rather predictably. If it was actual fraud, it remains unclear to me what his exit ramp was going to be.
Either way- the guy owes a bunch of people a lot of money. That fact stands.
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New video uploaded to YouTube
Showing off how nice elmax is back from HT saying these knives being easy to work with will allow them to get blades out the door which will give them capital to finish the GSO 12s.
We know since the knives are more than likely paid for it’s not generating capital for anything.
Showing off how nice elmax is back from HT saying these knives being easy to work with will allow them to get blades out the door which will give them capital to finish the GSO 12s.
We know since the knives are more than likely paid for it’s not generating capital for anything.
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One minute his business is ruined.
The next, everything’s back on track.
Guy really needs something to level him out.
That is an issue we as society struggle with: is someone guilty of a crime if they are unable to recognize that their action is in fact a crime? Is Guy's fraud business actually a fraud if he isn't out to intentionally defraud people? I'd argue he knows what he is doing is wrong and is in fact now intentionally running a long con ponzi scheme type fraud, not to get rich, but just to literally survive day to day, much like the rest of us go to work and earn a living.
Guy knows what he is doing is wrong because he has constantly said they are trying to do better. He recognized that what he was doing with the preorders was wrong, years ago. They swore they put an end to that. Same with the out right seconds and ugly betty sales. Well guess what, he now fully admits that he needs the preorder money and always has. He's admitted to doing what we all said he was doing, taking in initial funds, not producing for years, and then needing new money to produce old orders. He hasn't stopped the seconds sales, he just now calls it "selling in stock items," while already paid for orders wait. The preorder cycle will start again as it always does, and he will continue to trickle out in stock items, despite knowing this is not an effective way to run a business. All this while not responding to refund requests.
So he recognizes what he is doing is wrong, tried to change, but couldn't. Rather than doing what most makers do, which is to close the books and clear the back log, he continued the con, knowing that it has never worked in 10 years, other than to keep food on the table for him. Also, he's been told what he is doing is wrong, for years and years and years. Not just from us here, but also from people in the industry he has worked with (ask millet). And from financial institutions like paypal. We know the PA AG has sent him letters. Guy ignores the reality of his wrong doing, even though it is been presented to him repeatedly.
At the end of the day, I think guy knows what he is doing is wrong. This is purposeful fraud. He may think he can dig his way out, but his own history proves that it will not work by continuing to take people's money. So if everyone is telling you what you are doing is wrong, all the evidence shows you knowingly continue this wrong behavior, and you continue the wrong behavior for a decade, you are in fact a fraudster, even if you yourself don't believe it. Guy's self delusion is not society's problem. Protecting ourselves and each other is the important part here.
Prisons are filled with people who don't think they've done anything wrong.
On the whole, I thought the video was pretty even-handed. But toward the end, it started to sound like a commercial for CPM.Two points he raised stood out to me. He mentioned Survive's tolerances on the blades may have been too tight given the nature of Magnacut, and steel in general. And the next one was the issue of pricing on the finished blades. I think Survive charges too little for the blades. I know they pride themselves on providing the best value, and that's certainly great for the consumer. However, it leaves margins so thin it requires a lot of preorders to cover whatever scrappage and other necessary expenses to run the business. The business model is not right for what he's doing.
He needs to do the following in the following order, like now:
1. Finish his backlog; if he has to take a short-term loan to cover it then do it.
2. Pare down his product line. He has too many knives that cannibalize each other's sales.
3. With the reduced product line, crank those knives out to carry a sufficient safety stock level.
4. Charge more for the knives.
5. Deliver on time, every time. This is probably the biggest one.
Or, was it defending an industry leader. Also, defending all the makers who use CPM and know what they are doing. This is a point made in the video. With guy taking on this crusade, not only is he insulting the steel makers, he's also insulting everyone else who uses it. Not a great look.
This is because survive doesn't know what they are doing. If you look at their history, they are relatively new to making their own knives. Most of their history, all the manufacturing for everything was done by someone else. It was always convenient to blame others when survive missed deadlines. Now that they do the work, guess who they are blaming. Not them of course, it is the source materials!
People forget that this is a basic tenant of a scam. Price too low to believe? Well, it is.
You are dead wrong here and the preorders should not be downplayed. Preorders don't cover scrappage or thin margins. Preorders are the entire business model. Guy takes preorders and treats them like an interest free loan, but rather than being up front about it, like you would need to be from a reputable financial institution, he takes money from individuals and lies to them. He's been doing it for 10 years and this is in fact the root cause for all the problems. Nobody else can be blamed for this aspect of his business. No fires, not the economy, not even a pandemic. No suppliers, or lack of workers, or personal problems have made guy take fraudulent interest free loans from thousands of individuals over the last 10 years. REPEATEDLY. That is a conartist 101 move.
He needs to shut his yap, close his doors, and sell off all materiel aspects of his business. He needs to get a real job where he has no control over any aspects of business. He needs to use the money he earns to pay back every single customer. Never ever should he try to start another business.
It isn't so bad to just be a regular guy, earn a wage, and live out your life comfortably. Conartists and criminals rarely understand.
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The answer to this first one is "yes", though there may be mitigating factors in the resulting punishment.
My opinion that S!K isn't an intentionally fraudulent company doesn't change the fact that they've done something wrong.
Up until now I'd say it was morally wrong, subject to interpretation, but pretty soon I think it's going to be criminally wrong.
See, I'm not so sure. Even now it's not his fault things aren't going well. He's done nothing wrong- it's someone else's fault.
Kind of like our buddy
Wild Willie
pointed out, Preorders or payment upfront isn't necessarily against the law, but it sure doesn't sound like a good idea.If S!K delivered 100% of preorders (in a timely manor), I don't think we'd even question his choices, but in the real world we know preorders is a potential setup for catastrophe.
I think we're all pretty sure he's been using incoming funds from preorders to make up the difference in bungled past orders.
This is where it gets dicey, because now the pressure's on to make some bad choices; choices like...
Take a preorder. bungle it. someone wants their money back- return it.
Not a great situation and I'm sure no one's happy, but I don't think a crime has been committed.
Delaying a refund, in any way, is where we first see the symptoms.
Add on additional coercion in the form of threats to not allow someone to preorder again and it looks really bad.
Not being solvent enough to supply refunds means that S!K has stepped beyond the point of no return.
They've accepted payment for a product they can't deliver, and they can't refund the order.
In my know-nothing-legal-opinion, that's the definitive moment they have committed a crime.
Oh for sure, and Guy might end up being one of them.
I guess my whole point is that the time is coming where there's going to be a change in how we talk about it.
Until now, it's basically been "In my opinion, Guy is a fraudster".
That's fine, but it's not super meaningful in the grander scheme.
It will become "Legally, Guy has been found to be a fraudster".
In today's Clown World video (Morning Reflections 2.20.2024), Guy says they are making EDC 4s (with Bohler) because of the high tariffs on thicker material (@1:30 in the video) required for GSO 5.1s. You know, the ones he said he would let people with preorders switch from the CPM steels (that he deems are bad quality). So no magnacut or 3V for GSO 5.1s, but also no Bohler steel either. Gotcha. And at 16:35 Guy says that Peter's Heat Treat (that was responsible for the decarburizing) doesn't want to work with magnacut anymore.
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Guy a
Guy also stated that by visiting Tim Reeve’s shop by the sounds of it once that qualifies as studying under him.
Guy also stated that by visiting Tim Reeve’s shop by the sounds of it once that qualifies as studying under him.
Ilikesharpstuff
Basic Member
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I haven't watched today's video, but if I was a gambling man I'd wager that if Peter's said that at all, they were specifically telling Guy/Survive! not to send anymore Magnacut. I've had a heat treat company tell me they don't want to work with certain materials anymore, but they were cracking parts. Some amount of warping and surface decarburization is normal.
Leaving only .005" stock on a large, thin part (knife blank) then sending it to heat treat is a total rookie mistake. As Creely said, things are going to move during the extreme heat cycles of heat treatment. That only gives him .0025" per side to remove when it comes back and nobody should be shocked that it's not enough...I just plucked a hair from my head and it measured .0022" near the root. He's trying to cut costs by removing as much material while soft as possible and now he's finding out why that's a bad idea.
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Boy it'd be nice to get some official statements from Peter's.
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This is exactly what I was thinking. Peter's is a very capable company, and Magnacut was demystified by it's inventor.
I'm no machinist, but I am a hand tool wood worker. If I got a piece of wood flat within +/- 0.0025, that's as flat as anyone would care to have and flatter than anyone would notice.
Guy's hunt for perfection is absolutely insane if he's going to tie his own arms behind his back like that.
He set himself up to fail.